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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

rand.org

471–480 of 523 posts

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one will take the risk of educating them to work the lathe. Working the lathe is probably not any easier to learn than "vibe coding" or generic office work like customer support or data entry. The unspoken problem is that it's enormously expensive to re-educate adults to do something different. Adults just have worse brain plasticity and don't pick things up as quickly as younger workers. Some just refuse to learn…

learning to operate a lathe for alot of the low-precision work that goes on for mass market production is really pretty easy. but those job are _never_ coming back, anywhere except places that lack sufficient capital or prototyping/research environments. you can program a swiss machine to take in stock from behind the head and dump completely finished parts in a tray at the bottom. depending on parts complexity you c…

Yup, people have this romanticized 1950s view of a "factory" full of tools that they last saw in high school metal shop, employing middle-to-working-class people to run those tools making widgets by hand, and that simply isn't what a factory is in 2025. It's more often than not one poorly paid dude emptying out trays from a fully-robotic line.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#472
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The country that manufactured 90% of the world's respiratory masks took care of itself first and foremost at the expense of all other countries. You can't blame them for doing so Yes you can. People have a moral obligation to help others, including when they have to sacrifice, and they do it all the time. People make sacrifices all the time for the greater good. In fact, many of the extreme self-interest capitalist…

Fair enough. During the pandemic there was an acute shortage of medical supplies and there were really not enough to go around for everyone. It would be a tough sell to convince the person who is actually making these supplies to put the needs to an arbitrary person above the needs of their immediate community. I didn't really enjoy having to be the one to go without on that round, but I would have been pretty angry…

> trying to sell them to a foreign country for the greatest possible profit

First, to clear things up, I don't at all mean doing it to maximize profit. Notice that we expect a great degree of selflessness here - they should not be maximizing profit during the pandemic. We require it - we put them in jail otherwise.

It's all hands on deck.

> It would be a tough sell

There are definitely challenges here; I agree about that.

I think what sells to most people is to appeal to fairness. Democracy's foundation is fairness - rights to all, all get a vote. Fairness actually sells very well everywhere, despite the modern authoritarian's false critique. Law of the jungle is highly undesireable to most people; they like having civilization and rights.

But not universally; some will fight it. You need leaders and neighbors standing up for what's right. Also, enlightened self-interest can be convincing - help those in need, and you'll get help when you are in need.

You also need a way to determine what is fair; good leaders build consensus and navigate the politics - that is their job definition. Probably you put supplies where they do the most good. Start with hospitals and nursing homes, where contagion and vulnerable patients combine for the greatest risk. Then other vulnerable people (e.g., elderly or ill in private homes), then the first healthy recipients being front line workers like firefighters.

I think most healthy people would happily give up their medical supplies for those who need them more. There are always some malcontents, but we can't hold up society and progress for them.

> convince the person who is actually making these supplies to put the needs to an arbitrary person above the needs of their immediate community

Manufacturers provide them outside their employees, and health care professionals help strangers all the time. If we asked someone in downtown SF to provide them to someone across the Bay, would that be too far? To LA? NY? Rural Georgia? What about from Seattle to Vancouver? Belgium to the Netherlands? To Germany? To Turkey? To Japan?

My probably obvious point is, ''community' and 'us' are amorphous, changing concepts. Of course people in LA and Toronto and anywhere deserve the medical supplies as much as people next door.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#473
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to read up on Solzhenitsyn. Wrote some very important books, but not someone you want to quote on ethics.

He's right on this one.

Right or wrong, that's not an appeal to an authority.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#474
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is both selfish and selfless, to different degrees at different times and in different situations, including the people you apparently believe to be completely selfish (you don't really believe that?). (Obviously a simplistic binary system, but appropriate for HN comments where time and space is limited.) The religion and worship of selflessness is a cult - who ever followed such an ethos; even what great Am…

The US has done quite well with a mostly free market.

> The US has done quite well

Some do extremely well, many don't do well at all.

> with a mostly free market.

We both know there are massive social programs, and the market is unfree in many ways - powerful participants often make markets very non-free for others, and of course some are highly regulated to the point of distortion.

I actually favor using the free market whenever possible, most importantly because of the first word - people should be free to do as they like in business too, as much as possible - and because it works very well for the great majority of things.

I think we need freer markets - open to all competitors. Extreme capitalism is destroying the free market because capitalists are driving out competition. It's become capitalistism - an economy allocating things for the capitalists, not for capital.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#475

And that's 30 years ago. It's worse now. The US isn't producing much manufacturing machinery. Machine tools last a long time, many decades. Replacement of worn-out machine tools does happen, but slowly. Because of this, the market for new machine tools is mostly driven by the growth rate of manufacturing, not the total level of manufacturing activity. If manufacturing is flat or in decline, new machine tool sales bec…

Bad news. Haas announced yesterday they are cutting US machine tool production during the tariff mess.[1] The exact opposite of what was supposed to happen.

[1] https://x.com/peteoxenham/status/1909751767610654795

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#476
post #393
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> historically very popular When? Not for a long time. Slavery and witchcraft were historically very popular ... > when you buy stuff you're losing wealth That's a incredible failure of understanding. I can't believe that's the basis of mercantilism. Why would anyone buy something? If you buy a house for $100,000, your wealth remains the same - you replace $100,000 in cash with a $100,000 house (ignoring complexities…

I think that's a misunderstanding. If you could build the house using only resources that you already have than you would have 100k dollars AND a house. That's the idea of mercantilism. Of course sometimes you just don't have needed resources and than you have to buy something but you should limit it to things you can't obtain in any other way. Mercantilism is one of the reasons of colonialism. If you can take resour…

> If you could build the house using only resources that you already have than you would have 100k dollars AND a house.

You still have to spend money on materials and labor - they are never free. You need to take them from other uses, and people may outbid you for them. There isn't infinite lumber and labor lying around the US for free - building houses is expensive!

The core of economics is there is a scarcity of resources and we want to allocate them as efficiently as possible. Money's fungibility allows us to move resources easily and rapidly. I can send you $50,000 much more easily than my car - you might be on a different continent; you might not even want my car or agree on its value, but I can count on you wanting $50K because you can buy whatever you need with it (a car, a few servers, a trip around the world ...).

It turns out in reality that someone with better skills and capital (hard resources, such as heavy equipment) can build a house so much more efficiently than you, that you would save money by hiring them rather than doing it yourself. That's specialization, another economic fundamental. Think of most work - orthopedists, C developers, pipe fitters, etc. They are so much more efficient than you are, you wouldn't dream of trying to do it yourself (on any significant level) - even if you are in the same domain, such as internists or Python developers.

You don't lose out at all, because they also hire you to do what you are specialized at. Then instead of the farmer building a house and the carpenter growing squash, both get better and more houses and squash for much less money.

> If you can take resources from some part of the world that you don't really care about, then you are adding wealth to your own country for basically free.

If you shoot someone on the street, you can take their wallet for 'free'!

... You are arguing against fundemental economics and even basic accounting. If you care about these things, learn about them a little. Microeconomics is actually fascinating, and basic double-entry accounting is essential.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#478
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> historically very popular When? Not for a long time. Slavery and witchcraft were historically very popular ... > when you buy stuff you're losing wealth That's a incredible failure of understanding. I can't believe that's the basis of mercantilism. Why would anyone buy something? If you buy a house for $100,000, your wealth remains the same - you replace $100,000 in cash with a $100,000 house (ignoring complexities…

> > historically very popular > When? Not for a long time. Slavery and witchcraft were historically very popular ... The wikipedia article places it as 16th to 19th century which is a longer time period than Globalism was popular. If the end of my post wasn't clear, I'm not a fan of Mercantilism but one does need to understand the other side. Although a big critique I have of Globalism is that the gains from trade ar…

> Although a big critique I have of Globalism is that the gains from trade are not evenly dispersed automatically so countries like the US really need to raise the top tax rate and increase (or at least not lower) redistribution otherwise you get high income equality.

I agree with that critique, though it may be a problem with this specific version of Globalism, not globalism itself.

But do you think there is more equitable distribution with mercantilism or protectionism? Why would that be? In those systems government officials choose who gets the benefits; you can't get them for yourself. Also, they tend to oppress less powerful countries - globalism's astounding record of raising people from poverty all over the world is absolutely unmatched. People take for granted the relative prosperity in China, India, Brazil, ... - nothing like it ever happened before.

> if the USA had continued to practices mercantilism post-WW2 then we wouldn't have complaints about the lack of manufacturing.

You assume this mercantilist government can effectively manage manufacturing, and that it wouldn't deteriorate, having no competition. Industry without competition tends to do that. Basically, enshittification is doing that intentionally.

With only 5% of the population the US would not have nearly enough manufacturing capacity to meet modern needs.

Finally, keeping people in manufacturing (how? by force?) would prevent them from taking the newer, higher productivity jobs that followed.

The US was much less wealthy - order of magnitude at least - in the 1950s (or whatever golden age people think of). You don't want to go back to that economy.

> The industrial plants in China would've never been built by US investment because that's literally handing money away to another country.

If it was handing away money, then why would someone invest in it? They invest because the investment generates returns, in this case massive returns that changed hundreds of millions of lives and provided wealth that was used to buy and invest in yet more things.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#479
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree there's a big difference between individuals and states economically. And I understand why Louis (do you mean XIV?), in the absence any modern economic theory, pursued mercantilism. But if Louis had known modern economic theory, it would have been ridiculous. He would know that the wealthiest, most powerful nations ever on Earth - universally, with no others competing - were built on free trade.

>He would know that the wealthiest, most powerful nations ever on Earth - universally, with no others competing - were built on free trade. It really depends on the context. Roman Empire wasn't built on free trade.

We are far, far wealthier, freer, more everything than the Romans. In their context, they did relatively very well. We are far beyond that.

The Romans worship us, or would if they could have known. There is just no comparison. The worship of them is bizarre.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#480
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that support protectionism? For one thing, it involves imports and exports, which requires trading partners who will want to sell you things too. Maybe the argument for colonialism? Regardless, countries that largely operate without protectionism or colonialism have become the wealthiest in the history of the world, without any real competition. There's not much argument remaining.

The goal isn't to block all trade in favor of a purely domestic market. That would be stupid as now your manufacturing base is limited to the quantities of raw materials that can be produced locally and you're burning through non-renewable strategic assets just to float domestic day to day activities while simultaneously artificially limiting your available market for finished goods. This is manufacturing economy 101…

> This is manufacturing economy 101

What is? You haven't spelled out your theory. And I know economics well, and class 101 is free markets and specialization.

> how the US built and defended it's manufacturing base before the pivot to a "service" economy

Who wants to return to an economy of decades ago? The US was much poorer then. I want to move to the future. Services are much easier on people physically - you don't want to work in a coal mine.

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