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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#471

Post by elif »

huijzer wrote: post #406
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

What you mean like hong Kong? That humiliation pales in comparison to the damage done domestically as taiwan's defenses would necessitate a gross loss of life. Then consider the diplomatic posture of every major economy on the China sea.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#472

Post by ikurei »

netsharc wrote: post #450
3D30497420 wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also a vibrant democracy, potentially serving as an example (foreign and domestic) that alternative political systems are an option and perhaps even desirable. I have a strong impression there are similarities with Russia and Ukraine. Having a neighbor with a similar culture and overlapping histories that also has independent, democratic government was likely viewed as a direct threat to the Putin regime and one…

Yeah, I subscribe to your theory too. It's odd how Putin and his defenders spout all sorts of theories about the evil of NATO and "the West", but if you (addressing the dictators here) have faith in your arguments, why suppress viewpoints that disagree with yours, with media company closures, network firewalls and threats of years in the gulag?

Because their argument, in which they do have faith, is that a cacophony of disagreeing viewpoints casting doubts on the common national project is hurtful, even if those doubts are unfounded and those viewpoints unsubstantiated.

I'm not defending autoritarianism or communism, but I think you're just not putting yourself in their shoes and looking at things from their POV. They supress other viewpoints not because they're afraid to be shown wrong, but because they believe it's best to supress them and not have people confused by enemy missinformation.

(Not an expert, but this is my impression from talking to both chinese and vietnamese people who defend or at least don't oppose their communist governments, and also spanish autoritarians who defend the Francoist regime. I used to think they were brainwashed/dumb/evil, and now I think their worldview makes a bit of sense, even if it's still misguided.)

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#473

Post by altacc »

yujzgzc wrote: post #399

Trump involuntarily did more for Taiwan / mainland unification in one meeting with Zelensky than in all the years prior. Taiwanese now understand that they can't trust US to step up to their security commitments. If US won't do it for Europeans being savagely attacked by aggressive neighbors, they won't do it for Taiwanese being blockaded by mainland. At that point Taiwan tariffs and China tariffs will be the same. T…

The difference is that China is on Trump's enemy list, whereas he considers Russia's oligarchs to be potential business partners for his own oligarchy. Trump wants trade barriers to China but wants those with Russia to be removed.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#474

Post by NewJazz »

amelius wrote: post #419
qwertox wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is out of the AI race. That has been lost and there's no way to reverse it. If Russia wouldn't have started a war, it could have focused on building huge datacenters. It has all the energy it would have needed, now all it can do with it is sell it to China for cheap.

> Russia is out of the AI race. That has been lost and there's no way to reverse it. Huh, anybody with a laptop and an internet connection can be in the AI race within a few months if not weeks or days.

Have you seen Russia's laptops?

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16827/russia-to-build-riscv-p...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#475

Post by starspangled »

shellfishgene wrote: post #429
starspangled wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC factories on Taiwan are small fry in the scheme of things and won't really move the needle much, in terms of strategy. Samsung and Intel are pretty comparable in manufacturing capability, within a couple of years really. And most chips you find in cars and ships and missiles and satellites and jets aren't leading-edge either. China is terrified of their access to the sea being blockaded. They'd gladly give up TS…

How would you bock China's access to the sea along it's 14000 km coastline? That woulde be a heck of a blockade, with or without Taiwan.

> How would you bock China's access to the sea along it's 14000 km coastline?

With missiles and submarines presumably.

> That woulde be a heck of a blockade, with or without Taiwan.

Of course, due to China's military build up around the sea. Due to their being afraid of said blockade. The one they want Taiwan and other disputed islands to help counter.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#476

Post by nmeofthestate »

drodgers wrote: post #464
ekianjo wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

The US would respond to with a freedom-of-navigation exercise backed up by the full might of US-PACOM. China would lose that standoff.

Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#477

Post by starspangled »

cookiemonsieur wrote: post #436
shellfishgene wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you bock China's access to the sea along it's 14000 km coastline? That woulde be a heck of a blockade, with or without Taiwan.

Exactly. We have a westerner bragging about blocking a 5000 years old country's access to the sea like it's a normal thing and they're not the intruder. Hilarious.

What are you talking about? You think I'm a westerner bragging about blocking something that isn't even blocked and I'm an intruder?

All I said was that China is terrified of naval blockade, which it is. You're the one being hilarious here.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#478

Post by bloomingkales »

nverno wrote: post #459
ekianjo wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

Why not buy them out? If you give everyone 100k it’s only 2.4 trillion. Or even better, just buy out the militant element.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#479

Post by sjsdaiuasgdia »

ein0p wrote: post #418
fatbird wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zelensky predictably plays the tough guy by telling him to pound sand. Zelensky flew to Washington to sign the agreement, and fully expected to--they waited an hour after the blown up press conference before being told to get out. Diplomatically, Zelensky wasn't even badly behaved in the press conference. Vance and Trump kept escalating the discussion. If there was a play, it was one constructed by Trump to give hims…

Watch _the whole_ press conference, the entire 53 minutes, not the carefully selected morsels that CNN prepared for you in order to mislead. Zelensky failed to read the room, and 23 minutes or so into the conversation he started to self-immolate, something Trump and Vance gladly helped him with.

I'd watched the whole thing live when it happened. I went back and watched from around 21min in to see what self-immolation you mean.

Sequence of events -

Trump downplays the need for security guarantees. "Security is maybe 2% of the problem, security is the easy part, I'm worried about getting the deal done."

A "reporter" from OAN asks a kiss-ass question that can be summarized as "President Trump, how amazing and courageous are you for negotiating with Putin?"

Trump gives a rambling answer including his usual vague statements of how the war wouldn't have existed if he'd been in power and then starts talking about Hamas for some reason.

There's a moment of levity where Trump says Zelensky's attire is fine.

Zelensky indicates he wants to respond to some of the earlier statements. He says Russia has broken many promises made in past negotiations and this is why security guarantees are actually critical to Ukraine.

"Reading the room" in this situation would mean "buying into the Putin-led narrative currently being peddled by the Trump administration."

Fuck that.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#480

Post by UltraSane »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

I've read that in war gaming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the US can stop it BUT they usually lost TWO aircraft carriers. That would be almost 14,000 dead US soldiers.
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