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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

471–480 of 1001 posts

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#471

Does it make any sense to talk about the foundations and the upper structures as being separately insurable ? Can foundations be reused ?

I assume the foundations are concrete, and the rest is wood, cardboard and any combination of the two, so I could see that the foundation would survive a fire

Get out of here, who is building a home out of cardboard?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#472

Former CEO of AXA, a major French insurer, famously announced that a world at +4°C would be "uninsurrable" [1]. That was 10 years ago. It's true that most predictions about climate are wrong - most of the time, they're optimistic. (Not always, fortunately [2]) [1] https://www.leparisien.fr/economie/business/special-cop21-un... [2] https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-fo...

+4°C is to the upper end of projections if it did (which is not probable) happen it'd take until the end of the century if we were to get there the entire world will be a different place; everything will have advanced so we won't be insuring our present world with our current knowledge and current tech but a future world with future knowledge and future tech

Sounds super optimistic. Despite some efforts to mitigate climate change. Industrialists are hell-bent on removing regulations and consuming more power than ever. Cooling things is expensive and the laws of thermodynamics don't care about how advanced a society is.

"All natural and technological processes proceed in such a way That the availability of the remaining energy decreases In all energy exchanges, if no energy enters or leaves an isolated system The entropy of that system increases Energy continuously flows from being concentrated To becoming dispersed, spread out, wasted and useless New energy cannot be created and high grade energy is being destroyed An economy based on endless growth is Unsustainable"

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#473

Does it make any sense to talk about the foundations and the upper structures as being separately insurable ? Can foundations be reused ?

Maybe? I think its highly dependent on the age of the home and the willingness to reuse the outer plan to rebuild the home.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm always baffled at the fact that Americans don't build houses out of bricks. I read those arguments of the advantages this method has, especially financial ones, but to me it's nonsense considering that it would prevent an endless number of problems that cause the total loss. I still remember when New Orleans was hit with by Katrina, large parts of the suburbs where houses where made by wood and plastic where dest…

The entire west coast sits on top of a fault line. That’s why people don’t build with brick here. There’s plenty of brick buildings on the east coast (and on the west coast like in Oregon, but they have to be seismically retrofitted which is expensive).

It works for Taiwan and Japan

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#475

Not uninsurable, but buildings are going to have to become tougher. It's happened before. Chicago's reaction to the Great Fire was simple - no more building wooden houses. Chicago went all brick. Still is, mostly. The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. I live in a house built of cinder block filled with concrete reinforced with steel. A commercial builder built this as his…

> The trouble is, brick isn't earthquake resistant. Not without steel reinforcement. It's just a matter of throwing a couple hundreds $ of metal and cement every few rows of bricks, like this: https://www.pointp.fr/asset/27/07/AST212707-XL.jpg when you see how much american spend on houses it's a drop in the ocean. FYI a two storey 10x10m house will run you less than 10k euros in bricks for the external walls, and th…

And skill, likely in low supply, and labor. I'm sure some in the Pacific Palisades could afford this no problem, but many in altadena inherited their homes and their homes were the majority of their net worth.

Admittedly not very knowledgeable about this stuff but I feel like a lot of these types of comments are greatly trivializing this problem

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#476
> The other way the world is becoming uninsurable is much of what we take for granted--abundant, affordable resources, products, food and fuel, for example--is not guaranteed, and cannot be insured by political or technological means.

Fuel is not guaranteed, but renewables, batteries, heat pumps, EVs and possible nuclear does increasingly give us a technological option for ensuring power.

It's fair to ask if economics will drive us to adopt these technologies on a wide enough scale before we run out.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#477

It seems everyone is on the same "We will find new solutions to a new problem". I totally agree. Here is a list of all new solutions we need: 1) not insure places at higher risk 2) mass desalinification 3) fix US hot climate grids sparkles and/or place them underground 4) Street corridors to isolate fires in neighborhood 5) Build with more fire-resistant materials 6) Install automated hydrant towers with cameras able…

You’re mostly talking about wildfires. The top 5 most destructive events in US are all hurricanes. They are the size of multiple states and bring more water in a period of a day than rest of annual non-hurricane rainfall.

It’s desalinated water falling from a massive sprinkler in the sky.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#478

It seems everyone is on the same "We will find new solutions to a new problem". I totally agree. Here is a list of all new solutions we need: 1) not insure places at higher risk 2) mass desalinification 3) fix US hot climate grids sparkles and/or place them underground 4) Street corridors to isolate fires in neighborhood 5) Build with more fire-resistant materials 6) Install automated hydrant towers with cameras able…

> We'll develop mass production de-salinification plants and have enough water. And then you'll have the brine problem.

I'm asking naively and honestly: is there a solution to brine? Believe it's pumped directly back into ocean at the moment.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire west coast sits on top of a fault line. That’s why people don’t build with brick here. There’s plenty of brick buildings on the east coast (and on the west coast like in Oregon, but they have to be seismically retrofitted which is expensive).

It works for Taiwan and Japan

Japanese houses aren't built with brick.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#480

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

I hope you don't get downvoted for stating the obvious. This tendency of equating the US to the world happens so frequently and it is 99% a non-US person pointing it out.
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