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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#471

Post by Dalewyn »

nielsbot wrote: post #458
jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

So is your argument that there's no "affordability crisis" in the US?

The American economy keeps on chugging despite critics, but that doesn't mean the critics don't have a point.

Costs of living (read: gas and eggs) are high, many would argue "unaffordable" even though most will still pay up. This means that: No, there is no "affordability crisis" in the literal sense. But there is an "unhappiness crisis", as in people aren't happy about how much money they have to spend. That crisis, the "unhappiness crisis" fueled Trump's upset landslide victory this election.

The Affordability Camel's back isn't broken, yet, but the camel is declaring quite angrily that the point is very close.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#472

Post by eli_gottlieb »

narski wrote: post #377
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

>Looking at the numbers I'm reminded of this excerpt from 1984: But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just…

What would make you think the economy was doing well?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#473

Post by Dalewyn »

giantg2 wrote: post #411
jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Are retirement savings considered ordinary expenses? If not, that could be a huge gap in this understanding.

Any reasonable argument should classify retirement savings as an ordinary expense, since those savings come out of your income stream and become inaccessible until retirement age unless you either pay hefty penalties or qualify for very specific exceptions.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#474

Post by rascul »

DonnyV wrote: post #321
sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

Family needs to make $107,700 a year to own a home. Apartment in a moderate-cost area is about $70,000-$100,000/year. Median salary in the US is $59,300 What considered poverty level in the US for: 1 person: $15,060 2 people: $20,440 3 people: $25,820 4 people: $31,200 According to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, around 50% of Americans make $70,000 or more annually. That means about 50% of the US can not af…

> Apartment in a moderate-cost area is about $70,000-$100,000/year.

No way that's correct.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#475

Post by thuanao »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #432
thuanao wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you remove non-industrial and financial activity from US GDP, the economic picture is bleak. US and G7 have been steadily deindustrializing while BRICS have been doing the opposite. US GDP is misleading in the sense that it increasingly includes a large portion of economic activity that isn't actually producing tangible wealth.

That’s not how a global economy works (comparative advantage etc). An analogy would be that if you remove employment activity from my household finances then our economic picture is bleak.

Comparative advantage only works without trade barriers, and when the USA has something people want to import cheaper than elsewhere. The USA doesn’t have competitive exports. The USA is the largest net importer. By an order of magnitude. The USA is deeply in debt in both nominal financial terms and in real trade terms.

What's the USA's comparative advantage? Nukes and dollars. Demand for dollars and rent seeking via the post WWII global financial system. But G7 is no longer the only game in town. They have become the consumers while the rest of the world has become the producers.

Moreover, the leadership in China is fully aware of the macroeconomic situation and USA leadership doesn’t even appear to know how tariffs work.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#476

Post by onemoresoop »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #386
luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Or people crushed by student loans, rent and high costs of living could with a salary of say 100k end up living paycheck to paycheck more or less.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#478

Post by cscurmudgeon »

chmod775 wrote: post #358
slibhb wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. I don't really understand what you mean. While their reach is global, it's largely American companies that are creating the tech value, no?

They're creating "value" the same way the British Empire did for China around 1800. It's almost 1:1 the same dynamic. Bad decision-making of individuals is exploited to make them act against the best interests of their country and ultimately themselves, causing money to flow outwards in exchange for virtually nothing, which is then used to import things of actual value from the hapless victims. A modern twist on this…

By this logic, US should wisen up and go protectionist/isolationist against China (ban TikTok, tariffs on cheap products to make them on par with US goods with better environmental and labor regulations) and EU (no more subsidizing their GDP by defending global trade).

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#479

Post by SideQuark »

bmitc wrote: post #413
jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

> US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is absol…

The good thing about well sourced data across millions of sample points that are prepared by professionals over decades of collection is that one should believe that data over anyone’s uninformed beliefs based on no carefully measured data over even a single person.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#480

Post by tmn »

onemoresoop wrote: post #476
jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Or people crushed by student loans, rent and high costs of living could with a salary of say 100k end up living paycheck to paycheck more or less.

That happens but they are presenting a statistical picture
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