Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where does all that money go after the first year? It sounds like it vanishes?
The stocks would actually crash if converted to money. The net effect wouldn't be more cash to spend, but a stake in the economy. You would probably have to invent some more democratic formats of corporate governance.
Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
471–480 of 669 posts
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#472The problem with this kind of test is that the people still live in a society where cheap labor is available to the companies around them that provide them with all the goods and services that they like to purchase with those $1000 (or whatever free amount they've gotten). Germany shifted to a system that is as close to a basic income as you can currently imagine. There are some strings attached, but considerably les…
If you're affecting very small percentages of the population, the impacts seem minor. We've seen this with analysis on raising minimum wage to about $10/hr. Most people make over that amount (or work in excluded roles), so the impact is small. Raise it too much too quickly, and some industries experience issues due to costs passed on in their products/services, and inflation can become detrimental to the people at the bottom.
I wonder how this sort of thing will work out with something on a nearly universal scale - Social Security. To keep up with inflation, we need higher payouts. To keep the program solved, we need more revenue. This can be achieved with more workers, but relies on ever expanding population to cover the prior generation. Or it can be achieved with higher earning workers, which generally requires higher prices which potentially drives inflation, or though higher consumption (not very competitive on the global market due to cost of living, so not likely). Or we can raise the payroll taxes to cover the payouts.
Anything besides the higher output/consumption is likely to result in higher costs to consumers and drive inflation. More money being in more people's pockets also means more competition for constrained resources, also driving inflation.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#473$1000 is not enough to quit their jobs or get a nice apartment. They could move slightly closer to work if they have to commute. It's not enough for a real tuition or to support them to study instead of work. I don't think we've ever had a universal basic income test. We have always missed the universal and basic part. It's below basic and not at all universal. I suspect that you need to get international cooperation…
Another aspect that I think completely shifts the conversation and is often overlooked: duration.
If I am told I have X amount of money for Y amount of time, I'll plan accordingly. If Y tends to forever, that completely changes my plans.
With some money guaranteed, maybe now I can go to college or a trade school. Long term is a possibility. If it's only there for a small amount of time, I'll focus on much more immediate issues.
Without this aspect, which is kind of un-testable, all studies are kind of useless IMO.
It's the same as asking people what they would do with additional time off. The answers will vastly differ if we're talking about a couple of days, weeks, months, years or a lifetime.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#474Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who can afford it? It sounds like the expectations are higher than the total funds available. What do you think would be a suitable amount for Ubi?
I can afford it. It will cost me a lot of money because I'm barely on the tall end of that hypothetical situation right now, but I can put my part in. I can afford it because a healthy society is a productive society, and this will return to me because good economies are built largely upon productive societies, and healthy societies are more productive than unhealthy societies are. Productivity generates wealth. Are…
I think we are discussing different magnitudes of Ubi. I would consider leaving a 200k job for 40k Ubi (which I think is a number more in line with what people describe.
First off, my 200k salary would be taxed into effectively a 100k salary.
I could live pretty well off 40k if I never had to work, so quitting my job would be a quality of life upgrade.
I think a lot of my peers would consider the same.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#475Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a mindset that I often run into with IRL discussions that revolves around the premise that if a person has some minimal essentials met by doing nothing, then they will have no motivation to ever improve their situation at all. That if a person can afford to accomplish nothing but still have enough money to smoke weed and play video games, then all anyone will ever do is smoke weed and play video games. I don'…
When I was in the military reserves, there were some guys who graduated High School and went straight into a minimum-wage job, working at Home Depot and the like. At first they thought it was great -- I have my own place! Sure, it's a room in a flat shared with three other guys, but it's mine ! I have my own car! Sure, it's an old beater that guzzles gasoline, but it's mine ! I can buy a Playstation and afford whatev…
I think this discounts the formative experience of the prior years. I would expect it helped by: 1. Motivating those guys to make themselves more valuable on the job market. 2. Giving those guys baseline discipline/reliability to get them to their next work and training milestones.
The military reserves is an interesting beast, but if you were in the active component before that, you probably ran into lots of guys needing similar training in basic reliability. UBI could be a strong disincentive away from those minimum-wage jobs, and the outlay described by grandparent is superior to a minimum-wage standard of living.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#476Earlier quoted context omitted.
The U.S. Government also pays farmers not to grow crops! See, e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program ( https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/conservation-... ).
And Electric PUCs pay crypto miners not to mine, tens of millions of dollars, more than what they earn from mining.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#477Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Personally, I'm a big fan of the "for every $2 you make, you get $1 less from UBI/Welfare" That's..that's not UBI, at all. UBI is universal . If there are any means tests whatsoever , that's not UBI.
It's not about means-testing, it's about setting income tax rates/brackets sanely so that it gets taxed back in an appropriate way and not in a way that prevents people from picking up work, etc.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#478Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or retirees who have plenty of money but still choose to work because they're bored. If getting your needs met was a disincentive for work then why are all the multi-millionaires still working instead of downsizing their lives and playing video games / smoking weed for 40 years?
I don't think that is a very realistic jump. Most people are not facing that binary. Would you work 40 hours a week at McDonald's for an extra $20k/year if all your basic needs are met? OR at that point, would you say screw it and spend your days hiking, reading, and laughing with friends?
If we're having to say that the only reason someone ever would work a specific job is because it's an alternative to homelessness then that's on the job at that point. These are "inferior jobs" in an economic sense and it's up to the employer to do better. Make working for you suck less. Even in customer-facing retail jobs it's more than possible.
I'm having a hard time seeing the downside. Employees can afford to take more risks because they're not betting their livelihood anymore, and it provides a natural upward pressure on wages and working conditions at the bottom on the labor market which is sorely needed. Anyone whose desired lifestyle can't be supported on the meager income, which is most people, there's no change.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#479Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we really need academic studies on this topic? When Republicans cut taxes on the rich, it is not like they are making sure they have academic consensus on their side. We know welfare works. It is pretty simple. People need to eat, they need shelter, and a few other basic necessities. When they fall on hard times, not having those things can make it infinitely harder to get back on their feet. Our current welfare s…
> The nice thing about UBI is it is universal, and simple. The second your income goes below a threshold, you start getting a little bit of money. The second it goes above, you stop. UBI is typically not envisioned as means-tested (hence ”universal”).
This is why I like NIT. It is much more transparent about how the benefit scales with income. At this point if anyone mentions UBI, I just mentally substitute that with NIT as it is a much more practical and easy to understand implementation.
Re: Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
#480Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone making less than 138% of the federal poverty level (FPL) qualifies for free healthcare. I dont think most people would say that the USA has universal healthcare. The same is true here. If you make $0, you get $12K UBI. If you make $24K, you get $0 UBI. Is that universal?
Assuming there's no other income tax on the first $24K you make, it's a bit aggressive but it's still a valid form of UBI and an improvement on the status quo.
And again, Guaranteed Income is just another form of "benefits earmarked for the politically powerless."