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The Lunacy of Artemis

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471–480 of 539 posts

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s also the unstated purpose of beating China to setting up a base.

And what if China gets there first? How exactly would that benefit them, in a geopolitical sense? Sorry, but if I have the choice of wasting that much resources just so I can brag about it a bit sooner than my opponent, or watch my opponent do so, while I use said resources more productively, I know what to do.

Maybe weapons? Certainly you could hit speeds that would nullify any kind of missile defense, though MIRVs already accomplish that anyway.

Depending on where you established infrastructure on the moon, it might be pretty easy to conceal the things you're doing in space. You won't see anything launched from the other side, and anything leaving the moon is going to fall towards Earth, so may be difficult to detect (e.g. no heat signature).

The moon is also a pretty decent staging ground for the rest of the solar system, so getting there late means ceding any potential resource or technological advantages that being first might have attained.

There's also a slim possibility that there are things that can only be manufactured in low or zero gravity.

I think the last two reasons aren't a great justification, but anything that materially impacts geopolitics on Earth, as weapons systems and spying do, probably are if you think there's a credible threat that your adversary is capable of them. And that's probably a big part of why the US stopped going to the moon. The cost and risks didn't stack up when the US already had a pretty compelling technological lead, better intel, and the USSR never signalled that it was serious about going there.

China are serious, though, and the way they've vertically integrated the world's manufacturing base means they actually have a lead on the US in a number of areas. That's probably why there's suddenly a lot more urgency and credibility about claims of wanting to go back.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#472

It's easy to miss how clever the Apollo mission architecture was. The moon is not so far away in terms of distance but it is very far away in terms of Δv because, not least, you have to land propulsively because there is no atmosphere to slow you down. Trips to some near-Earth asteroids are easier than the lunar surface, Mars and Venus aren't that much harder because in any of those cases the Moon's gravity can be he…

The Apollo mission architecture was inspired. Going to the moon likely would have remained a fantasy if they hadn't done the only thing that could work. Any country with ambitions to land people on the moon in the future is facing the same laws of physics.

NASA is stuck with a complicated architecture because they are required to use a legacy system incapable of supporting an Apollo style campaign, not because they have some great vision. Both Blue Origin and SpaceX will need to reinvent space launch to make Artemis work which isn't necessarily a bad thing but I don't feel like NASA has made that clear to the public.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#473

this is how our entire federal apparatus works these days. our government is profoundly broken but we lack the will to acknowledge it. I have about 20 years of experience in Federal contracting. we have nothing but process and zero accountability. It's literally a miracle anything ever gets completed. we sink billions of dollars into projects that are forecast to have dubious economic benefits and then we never bothe…

> compensate leaders who save money by doing more with less.

This is a recipe for burnout

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is a business controlled by a single man that is really interested in making humanity multi-planetary by building a self-sustaining base on Mars.

It will stop focusing on Mars after Elon dies. This may take a while, admittedly.

Maybe. As part of the control he currently has, I think we can safely assume he has been filling the company with employees who are also very jazzed about going to Mars / making humans multi-planetary. So it really depends on where the power lies when Musk dies.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX doesn't make sense as a business without actually truly thinking space exploration is something worth doing. Rocket companies are bad ways to maximize profits.

SpaceX is a space exploitation business, Starlink being the foremost example but also commercial and governmental launches of Falcon 9 and eventually Starship. Even going to Mars is ultimately a mission of exploitation, not exploration. Space exploration is the duty of governmental space agencies such as NASA, who (assuming sufficient budgeting) can all literally afford to run red ink for entire projects and not have…

I think space expansion business might be more appropriate verbiage.

"Exploitation" has connotations of man-vs-man colonialism, which I don't think apply in the case of outer space.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#476
post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starships keep exploding' is kind of like saying 'tests keep failing' in test-driven development. Saturn V had zero failed launches

Apollo 6 was a partial failure due to engine failure of the 2nd stage. Also they blew up tons of F1 engines during testing. They never got the POGO issues fixed. I really don't understand why people make these arguments. SpaceX is explicitly saying they dont want to spend money proving everything works the first time.

Because in the end the statement that started this whole discussion is still true: we're not there yet, the starship keeps exploding. I have deep respect for SpaceX but what they "explicitly say" doesn't change facts.

We may get there eventually, perhaps even with starship, but the fact remains that in 60 years after Apollo we don't have a comparable heavy rocket.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#477

Does anyone has a theory why in 60 years no one beats the F-1 engine? How is this possible?

Not sure what you're saying. The F-1 engine is easily beaten by many engines that exist today. It was not a very high efficiency engine at all.

We don't have decent heavy engines and my understanding is that that's main the reason why we don't have decent heavy rockets.

It's true that in the end we may get there the long way, N1-style, but we still didn't.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#478
post #178
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are confusing the issue here. Imagine a world where Space X does not exist - never did. Even still, Artemis is a terribly designed rocket that costs gobs more than Saturn V and performs much less. Would you be happy buying something today that costs more than it did in 1970 and performs worse? It doesn't matter what else is going on in the world, Artemis is shit.

SLS is the rocket. Artemis is the project that uses SLS, Orion, and Starship to land humans on the moon. There's also the dubious Lunar Gateway concept although that will likely get dropped as reality sets in. Maybe the same will happen to SLS. Wishful thinking.

I think it's interesting you didn't even address my point, you just went straight for pedantic naming conventions.

To be clear:

SLS is shit. It is waaaay more expensive, heavier and less performant than Saturn V, Starship, etc.

Orion is shit. It is heavier, more expensive and wasteful in many ways than it needs to be. It's already old by this point too.

The Lunar Gateway is shit. It's a solution looking for a problem, and everyone knows it.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#479

Does anyone has a theory why in 60 years no one beats the F-1 engine? How is this possible?

This video on what a modern Saturn V would look like goes into it a bit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNZx208bw0g

Thanks, very helpful.

Re: The Lunacy of Artemis

#480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see us put the first ventriloquist on the moon, with a miniature spacesuit for their little buddy. "That's one small step for dummy-kind--", "Who ya callin' small ya big dummy!" This is why we go to space.

So long as they do a gag where the dummy's suit is depressurised and he continues to protest but now silently, then I'm all for it. If Man is truly to live along the stars then vaudeville humour shall be part of it

A good name for the dummy would be “Houston”. The potential for gags is limitless.
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