Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Is my plane a 737 MAX?

ismyplanea737max.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

471–480 of 579 posts

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#471

Post by cameldrv »

justinclift wrote: post #462
cameldrv wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 737MAX is not going away. There are about 1400 of them flying and another 6000 orders. Boeing obviously has some serious quality problems that need to get fixed, but since the grounding in 2019, the MAX has done something like 1.5 million flights with no fatalities. This is worth fixing, but it's not dangerous enough to change your travel plans. You're way more likely to die from COVID you caught on the plane tha…

> it's not dangerous enough to change your travel plans. They keep having new critical safety issues. :( That latest one only didn't end up with fatalities due to luck, it could just as easily have gone the other way.

Absolutely. There have been several airline explosive decompressions in the past 50 years. The fatal ones have each had one fatality, even with crazy damage to the plane (look up Aloha 243) If you figure this incident "should" have had one fatality, if you figure 100 passengers per flight, that's a 1/150,000,000 chance of dying. Your odds of death are way worse on the drive to the airport than from this.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#472

Post by ytdytvhxgydvhh »

Fischgericht wrote: post #410

I find it puzzling that airlines are still ordering this plane. It's not just us, the customers, who should "vote with their feet", but the airlines, too. I would not buy from a vendor that is not able to have a QA process that makes sure all screws and bolts are in place, fastened and secured. Even if it would not be an airplane where this is critical for safety, even if it would just be a toaster, I would stop buyi…

It’s like people buying Teslas. Sure, it’s a company run by a mercurial edgelord billionaire who doesn’t believe in quality assurance or decent post-sale service, but hey, it’s a well-priced (depending on your jurisdiction maybe) car built by a company focused on electric cars and chargers. Not like you have a ton of options.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#473

Post by nyc640 »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #422
spacemark wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All valid points, but I wonder if you've overshot your response to this (very slight) increase of risk to your personal safety. The statistical safety of aviation is the best it has ever been - 2023 set yet another record low for commercial aviation deaths and injuries. Your automobile trip to the grocery store is far riskier.

>Your automobile trip to the grocery store is far riskier. I feel it's important to provide complete information. Flying is safer per mile traveled than driving. Driving is safer on a per-trip basis. So if you compare your trip to the grocery store to your flight to visit extended family, the trip to your grocery store is safer. But if you compare 10,000 miles of driving back and forth to the grocery store over many…

> Driving is safer on a per-trip basis.

You can’t make this blanket statement and I would bet on average it’s the opposite still.

- Flying in the US is on average ~750x safer per mile than driving according to 2000-2010 data (it’s likely even larger a difference in the modern era).

- I would venture to guess that most US flights are in the 1000-2000 mile range and most US car trips are easily more than the equivalent 2-3 miles.

- Most fatalities from flying occur during takeoff and landing, so longer flights are actually safer per mile. Relating this back to the thread, the risk of catastrophic failure from your choice (or non-choice) of airframe only really affects the off-ground danger and not the higher danger you face on a taxiway/runway.

- All of these numbers are based purely on fatalities but I’m guessing your definition of “safety” includes being maimed or otherwise seriously injured. You have several orders of magnitude higher chance of being seriously injured in a car crash compared to flying since accidents in aviation are much more likely to end in death.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#474

Post by dylan604 »

the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #313
davely wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2010, an Airbus A380 engine exploded. The fact that it landed safely was a miracle. [1] In 2017, an Airbus A380 lost an engine (literally, fell off the plane). [2] In 2018, a cockpit windshield blew out in an Airbus A319. [3] Don't get me wrong, the culture at Boeing has changed (for the worse). The 737 Max is not without issues. It's horrific that hundreds have died due to both ignorance and deception on behalf o…

I find the A380 accidents quite fascinating. If there is a plane I want to lose an engine on it’s one with four on it for sure. :)

Technically, the Osprey can loose one engine and continue to fly too. They have linkage connecting each engine to the other rotor specifically for this.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#475

Post by justinclift »

cameldrv wrote: post #471
justinclift wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's not dangerous enough to change your travel plans. They keep having new critical safety issues. :( That latest one only didn't end up with fatalities due to luck, it could just as easily have gone the other way.

Absolutely. There have been several airline explosive decompressions in the past 50 years. The fatal ones have each had one fatality, even with crazy damage to the plane (look up Aloha 243) If you figure this incident "should" have had one fatality, if you figure 100 passengers per flight, that's a 1/150,000,000 chance of dying. Your odds of death are way worse on the drive to the airport than from this.

k, now calculate the odds for "737 Max series planes" vs the rest, then make your choice. ;)

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#476

Post by [deleted] »

Sakos wrote: post #467
hentrep wrote: post #459

I booked a flight on United yesterday, well after this latest Boeing incident. After looking more carefully, they have me on a 737 MAX 9. I haven’t kept up with the latest, but I thought all of these planes were grounded. Am I missing something, or am I just setting myself up for a canceled flight next week?

Only planes with the type of door that failed on the Alaskan airlines flight are grounded.

[deleted]

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#477

Post by JumpCrisscross »

justinclift wrote: post #475
cameldrv wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. There have been several airline explosive decompressions in the past 50 years. The fatal ones have each had one fatality, even with crazy damage to the plane (look up Aloha 243) If you figure this incident "should" have had one fatality, if you figure 100 passengers per flight, that's a 1/150,000,000 chance of dying. Your odds of death are way worse on the drive to the airport than from this.

k, now calculate the odds for "737 Max series planes" vs the rest, then make your choice. ;)

> calculate the odds for "737 Max series planes"

Those planes have also flown millions of miles without incident. This is a low-frequency statistics game; the signal is presently constrained to the type 9.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#478

Post by j-b »

My family is set to fly with Alaska Airlines in a Boeing 737-9 MAX (ETOPS) this April. I'm just wondering about options and what others would do in this scenario. Maybe switch to a Delta flight on an Airbus A220-300, even though it means losing out on non-refundable discounts? Also, does anyone know if Alaska Airlines might let us change our non-refundable tickets (for an April flight) if we're worried about safety?

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#479

Post by barryrandall »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #301

If you are outraged and want to be more than performative about it, check if your electeds are on the Senate Aviation Safety, Operations, and Innovation [1] and/or House Aviation Subcommittees [2]. If not, the broader Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation [3] and/or House Transportation & Infrastructure Committees [4]. Call their office (D.C., preferably) or submit a comment noting the issue and your concerns a…

But cross-reference that with OpenSecrets to see if it's even worth pursuing. If they're in office, they're probably taking bribes from Boeing.

Re: Is my plane a 737 MAX?

#480

Post by floxy »

stouset wrote: post #351
dionidium wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll sometimes see this dismissed almost derisively as, "people think they're in control when they're driving, but lack agency while flying, so that's why they fear the latter more." But that's completely true! Not every driver on the road is at equal risk of a fatal accident. A significant percentage of all fatal accident involve speeding, reckless driving, and/or alcohol consumption, to say nothing of distraction…

Even "safe" drivers who aren't speeding, driving recklessly, or consuming alcohol are at greater risk of death and injury than on any major U.S. air carrier. So you do have control, and can put yourself into a safer cohort of drivers, but the best you can do still falls wildly short of the state of aviation safety.

In this age-of-big-data, it seems like you should be able to find data on each traffic fatality for the past ten years. Things like time of day, ages/demographics of drivers, demographics of victims, street address/gps coordinates, make/model of vehicles involved, blood alcohol level of impaired drivers, court determination of responsible party, etc.. Does anyone know where to find this?
Post reply on HN