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What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

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Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#471

Post by generj »

initplus wrote: post #406
fortuna86 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. People yelling "censorship" forget that the lab leak theory was mostly about how COVID was engineered as a bioweapon, which still remains a conspiracy.

On the other hand, existence of this conspiracy has been used to shut down perfectly reasonable discussion around a less outlandish lab leak for months. Even in this post opponents of the lab leak theory are still bringing up this bioweapons conspiracy - but I can't see a single lab leak proponent suggesting it's an engineered bioweapon. The issue is the existence of this outlandish fringe theory was used to censor a…

Unfortunately amongst the general public the outlandish fringe theory is more common than reasonable theories.

Source: my extended family

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#472

Post by tootie »

dekhn wrote: post #319
mw888 wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is garbage appeal to authority designed to make people embarrassed to hold an opposite view. I learned nothing from your comment and was simply told to trust this source you hid any arguments behind. It’s not fostering discussion and it’s strawmanning those you disagree with.

The fundamental premise here is that most people who are arguing about COVID origins simply don't understand enough about known factual biology to make informed arguments. The appeal to authority is important because, in the case where we're not particularly knowledgeable, we should use authorities as guidance on how to reason. I agree with what the parent said although I wouldn't say the evidence is "overwhelming".…

There's also a bias in the other direction that people have a natural inclination to desire something to blame for misfortune. Covid being a natural disaster is so distasteful and unsettling because it means there's nothing we can do about it. It's the same rationale people use to try to blame the president for high gas prices or personal tragedy on god's will. It's comforting to have an explanation. China already has a bad reputation for safety and honesty that they are an easy target.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#473

Post by mikeyouse »

tripletao wrote: post #460
mikeyouse wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of your points are directly and conclusively addressed in the post.. > First, because viruses travel easily – so even if 100% of early cases were around the market, it could have reached the market via a lab worker There were two distinct lineages at the market with a cluster of positive environmental samples in the wild animal section. I would love to hear a plausible theory on how two unrelated lineages came t…

These "two distinct lineages" are separated by exactly two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). For comparison, omicron differs from the original Wuhan virus by more than fifty SNPs. SARS-CoV-2 averages something around a third of an SNP per human-to-human transition. https://mobile.twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/153463060722071... It's overwhelmingly likely that something around two months of cryptic spread occurr…

> Were you previously aware.

Yes, of course.

> It's overwhelmingly likely that something around two months of cryptic spread occurred before the market super-spreader event, regardless of whether the origin was natural or research-related. That's plenty of time for these "two distinct lineages" to develop. They could also have developed at the market, either in a single transmission with two mutations, or in two transmissions with an intermediate lineage that died out before it could be sampled.

Two points - if there were months of cryptic spread, that essentially rules out 95% of the lab leak hypotheses and further reduces the importance of the WIV proximity.

Secondly, Twitter is an obnoxious interface but Pekar who wrote the paper highlighting the divergent sequences has a good thread explaining why it’s such an important data point:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jepekar/status/149984326950040780...

Since the multiple lineages were present in the very first patients as compared to say January 2020, it narrows the dates and source of the first virus considerably.

The very first identified cases had two distinct viruses and were all present at the market. That’s not at all what you would see if the virus had been spreading for a longer period (we’d have intermediate samples) or if someone from the WIV went to the market and infected people (they’d all show the common lineage that all other transmission chains show).

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#474

Post by scarmig »

chasil wrote: post #458
scarmig wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That doesn't eliminate the possibility that it was a natural virus which had been collected and subsequently escaped due to bad lab technique but the former is too attractive a conspiracy theory to let go.. For some reason most discussions claiming that the lab leak hypothesis is a conspiracy theory focus 90% of their effort arguing against being a bioengineered weapon and little time arguing against the actual str…

What I will tell you is a thing that I have read, and I hold close: Forgive one another, and you will be forgiven. In order to forgive, we must have the truth. Without it, we are in a fog of blind judgement and accusation. Clarity of the source of this misfortune allows us to forgive. I cannot say that I hold the full pantheon of the origin of these words to be true, but the four books that imparted this teaching to…

For what it's worth, I neither think the lab leak hypothesis is definitely proven nor that the scientists involved are worthy of some kind of punishment. It's a matter of increasing security at scientific research facilities and banning certain lines of research altogether as too risky.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#475

Post by cannabis_sam »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

Since you don’t even mention Daszak, while regurgitating the position he established years ago, you are per definition arguing in bad faith.

Please, for the love of us all, stop attacking humanity..

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#476

Post by tonymet »

For those of you complaining about conspiracy theories: this is why there are conspiracy theories. Supernatural theories will fill in the gaps. People cannot live without a cohesive worldview.

The origin of Covid, the biggest cataclysm in 100 years or more, will be understood either rationally or irrationally.

Investigating the origin of covid goes beyond the utility of preventing a recurrence or finding justice, both of which are also critical.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#477

Post by jcrash »

ssully wrote: post #305
epgui wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't disinformation. It was no secret that one of the reasons masks weren't recommended for general public use was that hospitals and clinics should be supplied as a priority. If you got a different impression than this message, blame wherever you get your news from.

Seriously. I can find social media posts of friends in April of 2020 sewing cloth masks to donate to hospitals/medical clinics to help them backfill their mask shortages.

Multiple sources in USA claimed masks were not needed for people without the disease. Heavily implying it was useless.

I of course knew that was BS from the get-go. But nonetheless they did say it.

https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#478

Post by trashtester »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

Here is a hypothesis that fits the data perfectly (but that could have a somewhat low prior):

- A poor studen has discovered that there is a demand in the wet market for bats.

- The student works at a lab that either has an in-house breeding area for presumably healthy bats, or that buy such bats from an external vendor.

- The student sees the opportunity for some extra income by selling some of those bats to the local wet market

- By some accident, one or more of the bats sold have been infected with some of the virusues being studied at the labratory.

Edit: A variation of the above idea would be if some bat-specialist (someone with skills for catching, keeping or transporting bats were working both the for virology institute AND for the wet market). This person could have, in some way, facilitated transfer of a virus from the institute to the wet market.

There is probably a number of such possible ways to associate the lab with the wet market, simply based on the two having a shared interest in bats.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#479

Post by mc32 »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

The WHO called for further investigation into the lab leak theory which means they have not dismissed it and believe it deserves a proper investigation.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#480

Post by Izkata »

kgwgk wrote: post #251
Izkata wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their source links to https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-uk Which says: > According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures, there are currently 1,472 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 04 July 2020 (excluding care homes) [*]. The data suggests no decline from last week (1,445 cases). The latest figures were based on the data from almost 3 million users, 11…

How is that link relevant? We're not in 2020.

It's the source for GP's source. Ask them.
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