Facebook's revenue up 35% year over year: -26% (P/E ~16) Amazon's revenue up 15% year over year: +12% (P/E 60+) I don't get the stock market. Facebook can simply turn on billions in revenue whenever they want still with WhatsApp, which has north of 2 billion MAU, and has not been monetized at all yet. Facebook is a reverse meme stock.
The current stock price of the company is theoretically the present value of future cashflows. For example, if you had project this revenue growth a year ago, you should have bought Facebook stock and not Amazon and you would have bet correctly. Facebook stock is up 21% from 2/1/2021 to 2/1/2022 whereas Amazon stock is down 9.54% during that same time period.
78% of homes have a computer in them. [0] I don't know anyone who does not use a PC for personal use, and my non-work social circles are not at all techie dominated. Also I'm not talking about 2021: I'm talking about years ago when Facebook moved away from prioritizing the PC platform. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered, I don't know, but when FB became a primary entry point to the internet for many people, and FB then…
55% of all web traffic worldwide comes from mobile. https://www.statista.com/statistics/277125/share-of-website-... And considering that most people spend 8 hours a day at work, how much personal usage on the web comes from the desktop? How many younger people are using computers for personal use - especially if it a shared family computer. Heck I am a software developer and my personal computer is just sitting in a…
So you do no personal development on a desktop? Do you use your work's equipment? Are you using your phone?
I have three desktops on the go all day. Three keyboards in front of me and three mice. I run Windows 7, 10 and ubuntu and another ubuntu under windows 10. Trading that in for my mobile is very limiting.
Good riddance? People will keep finding & buying things they need. If nobody’s buying anything from these businesses without invasive advertising & tracking then maybe whatever goods they were selling aren’t actually necessary? Of course there is nuance and edge cases to this, but in general I wouldn’t be surprised if society and the planet was better off once we stop producing useless garbage.
I don't think you've ever started a company with a new product. What if you make the world's best cheese grater. Nobody knows about it. You don't have connections to supermarkets. Smaller stores don't want to carry your niche item. You have $5000 budget to get your cheese grater out. How do you let people know about it? Online targetted advertising is basically the current established way to find those people who act…
We should advertise cheese graters to people who search “good cheese graters” instead of trying to track people across the web panopticon-style and cross reference if they are a) moving houses b) making a cheese-based dish c) friends with chefs or cooks d) planning a dinner party e) physically located in a kitchen goods store.
In this path, people would be interacting with games/content in Facebook "apps" that are effectively mobile web pages. Facebook would have control inside their garden. As soon as any Facebook app convinced a user to pay, all other facebook apps would have a seamless checkout. Getting user financials isn't easy but we've seen the rise of Venmo, Robinhood, and Neobanks since then so it's doable.
By 2009, mobile was clearly the future. But the phones were underpowered and didn’t run web pages well. Even today, most of the world is browsing the internet on low end phones where the web provides a sub par experience. Desktop penetration is lower outside of the US. Aren’t Internet cafes still a thing in much of the world because people don’t have computers at home?
I think internet cafe's are pretty old school everywhere now. Anecdotally, much of the developing world leapfrogged the US on mobile/fintech. People had low end smart phones and banked with their phone carriers 5+ years ago in East Africa.
Latest anecdote (this week) is not seeing internet cafe's in Belize and government PSA's say to contact them on whatsapp.
That said, Facebook makes their money in rich countries.
I don't know... I've seen some interesting products thanks to Facebook that I wouldn't have otherwise. Life would be pretty boring if we all only bought what we need.
That seems to imply that we need to buy stuff to create excitement in life. Is that what you meant?
That is almost exactly what UTM url parameters are [0]. We use these and via them our other tracking collaborates our theory on Facebooks tracking. There is actually a real problem with tracking via cookies on Facebook ads when the destination is a website. The ad click will open in a Facebook "In App Browser", any cookie that you (or any analytical service) sets will be within that IAB. If the user then uses the "op…
That's really interesting, I'm going to check our analytics to see if the same thing is happening. Another way you could potentially get around it is to fingerprint the user and store the basket contents server side and present them to that fingerprint.
We considered doing something like this but it would be very hard to ensure no false matches which could result in security compromises.
We also considered placing the session id in the url for the checkout, but again decided against due to security concerns.
Lies. Don’t you all see it? Facebook has been declining over the past year and this is a convenient way to blame someone - anyone. Let’s face it, what are your friends all using now? That’s right - video - YouTube and TikTok. Facebook had no answer for video and thus lost a lot of eyeballs. Instagram is a poor clone of TikTok and most people just repost their popular TikTok videos on Instagram reels anyway - hardly a…
This seems like post-hoc confirmation of "I knew it! I told you guys so!" like people who claim a catastrophic recession is around the corner, quarter after next. If you have some special insight that the wider market doesn't and hasn't price in, then the odds and prices are asymmetrically tipped in your favor. As an example, I spent $13,580 shorting Facebook on Wednesday, which I haven't sold but will probably later…
Incredibly good bet!!!
Congrats all around.
I made the opposite bet (whoops!) but on a much smaller scale. A tiny 300-270 put spread that lasted 2 days. Then, right before the earning, exactly 7 minutes before 4pm, I kid you not, I had a premonition. Something in my head said "Get out get out get out". So I closed out my spread, pocketed my measly gain of $775 and walked out the door to pick up my kid from school. So I'm back home at 4:30pm, I just login to ib for curiosity sake, just to see what would have happened if I had stuck to my guns. Jesus Mary & Joseph I was so shell shocked...would have lost well over 50K if I hadn't pulled the trigger !!! I was so glad I danced a jig & took my kid out for icecream. He wanted to know why, but explaining all this shit...$775 profit over 2 days for pushing a couple of buy & sell buttons & narrowly avoiding a major, major $50,000 loss. Definite icecream day. I just said Daddy is happy lets buy icecream.
That is almost exactly what UTM url parameters are [0]. We use these and via them our other tracking collaborates our theory on Facebooks tracking. There is actually a real problem with tracking via cookies on Facebook ads when the destination is a website. The ad click will open in a Facebook "In App Browser", any cookie that you (or any analytical service) sets will be within that IAB. If the user then uses the "op…
That's really interesting, I'm going to check our analytics to see if the same thing is happening. Another way you could potentially get around it is to fingerprint the user and store the basket contents server side and present them to that fingerprint.
It's fairly hard to uniquely fingerprint iOS devices, there aren't that many configuration options, most people use the stock browser etc.
Actually I suppose this may have changed since the introduction of safari extensions on ios? I haven't looked into this since that released