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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#471

Post by godelski »

kortilla wrote: post #81
godelski wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me what is interesting is comparing to other commodities. For Iron you see a similar pattern to lumber. Copper and steel boombed but are only starting to turn now. Is there a lag between raw materials and more refined materials? Silver and gold similarly, though gold has fallen harder. I'm guessing because of all the doomers that buy gold when the economy dips. I don't know how to analyze wheat. And crude oil just…

There isn’t a common theme really because these things are nothing alike. Oil crashed because there was a glut and that toxic sludge needs special infrastructure to store it. You can store a million dollars of gold in a suitcase. A million dollars of oil at $10/barrel (the price right before the crash) is 3.5 million gallons of oil that has to be stored somewhere. And on a physical delivery futures contract you’ve ag…

Sorry, I'm not trying to say that these things are alike. I'm more curious about the socioeconomic that drive these commodities in different ways. I guess since everyone is telling me that they are different means this point didn't come across. I thought it was obvious since they didn't move in the same manner and I was pointing out different effects to begin with.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#472

Post by danans »

exabrial wrote: post #451
jedimastert wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> low income families that have been waiting to build residences I don't think building has been an option for low income families for a while , or maybe I just know of very few markets where land was the limiting factor instead of materials & labor.

Land is pretty cheap in the vast majority of places. Land in coastal cities is not.

Even in the places where land is "cheap", it's only cheap for middle to higher income people in that area, or people doing income / wealth arbitrage from expensive areas. It's not cheap at all for lower income people from the cheap area.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#473

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

ventidesigns wrote: post #268
pjc50 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

There’s some successful projects though! There’s a good range, I like the variety, from spectacular ego-driven marriage-ending failures (…the lighthouse[1]) to some beautiful labours of love (the tree house[2]). Grand Designs is as much a monument to human achievement as it is failure! [1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=3AlsMEiAMvM [2] https://youtube.com/watch?v=CBpRLzbrCa8

It's amazing how many of the projects featured on GD end up being sold not long after completion.

The most dramatic one that I noted was a very contemporary museum looking home. The owner stressed how long they had spent planning it, and how you only get once chance, and it would be his dream home. He completes the house in the Surrey woods (it was beautiful, to be sure). Sells within a year and buys property on the Costa del Sol in Spain.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#474

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

mxmilkiib wrote: post #408
joeberon wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's excellent pain-viewing

https://twitter.com/ukgranddesigns no context grand designs

Also, now apparently releasing direct to YT ...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGa4o2Dc9JhC4xTKa3OKVfA

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#475

Post by godelski »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #80
godelski wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only people I saw saying this were the people on mainstream news like CNN or Fox (more Fox). But outside that I didn't hear anyone. Lumber has been falling since May and lumber futures have been going down as well. Really the only people that were saying that prices would remain high had a vested interest in keeping it high. It is such an insane position to even take considering that a pandemic is a temporary thi…

> The only people I saw saying this were the people on mainstream news like CNN or Fox. : > Really the only people that were saying that prices would remain high had a vested interest in keeping it high. Not seeing a connection here.

I really can't tell if this is sarcasm or not but I'll act in good faith that it isn't.

Fox has been selling out of control inflation since Obama and once Trump came in the story magically disappeared (even before Trump took office and could make policy decisions) and then after he was gone it reappeared. In fact, the stories appeared even before Biden took office. Similarly stories about the DOW being all time high appeared before Trump took office. As if the DOW or S&P500 being at an all time high isn't a normal occurrence and the index operating like they should but rather that this was because of the market "being excited" about a "more business friendly president."

Fox wants to sell you that the world is shit when the democrats are in office. CNN wants to sell you that the world is shit when the republicans are in office. News does move markets. Same with presidential tweets.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#476

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #307
dagw wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that anybody can do any type of electrical work (in homes), but certain type of electrical work needs to be certified. If your electrician isn't certified then a third party certifier has to certify the work after completion.

It is the same in the US. The actual labor can be done by anyone, but a licensed electrician has to be willing to accept liability for it. It is quite a racket in some towns, as some electricians will have an “expedited” relationship with the town’s inspectors, so you basically have to hire certain electricians if you want your project to move along smoothly. The electrician will come by and walk through for 5 min gl…

Here in NM, you can do your own electrical work, but you have to pass an exam first. The exam is non-trivial.

There's a separate exam for solar installs. I took and passed that, but given that it is open book (you get the NEC book) and covers "only 3 sections of the NEC"), it was suprisingly hard.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#477

Post by 3minus1 »

xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I just want to express appreciation for your comment. I don't know why the news article wouldn't include a chart like this, but I'm glad you posted it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#478

Post by nostrademons »

magicalhippo wrote: post #294
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut. Some close relatives bought a plot in a newly developed area, and tried to find a contractor to build their home. After listening to others in the area, it was pretty clear there was a couple of good, reputable ones and one avoid-at-all-costs. So they went with one of the reputable ones. The guy decides at some point…

There's a form of reputation arbitrage where when there's a lot of demand, a reputable contractor just says yes to everyone with a project and then subcontracts out to the not-so-reputable contractors that the customer doesn't want to touch. We ran into this with our solar installer - they came with great reviews from 2 coworkers, and all their other reviews up until about a month or two before our project were great, and when we actually got folks who worked for the company out they were pretty good. But then they took our money and subcontracted it out to some roofers who drilled through our roof, even after the salesguy (who I later learned was also a subcontractor, and seemingly trying to screw the CEO) explicitly told me they wouldn't subcontract it.

I figure this is the brick & mortar equivalent of an exit scam, or a tech startup's "incredible journey". Build up lots of good will over several years and then blow it all as you collect enough money to retire and never deal with people again.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#479

Post by frosted-flakes »

andysomniac wrote: post #405
rgallagher27 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excellent drinking-game tv! Take a shot every time Kevin says "bespoke"

There was an unofficial drinking game on the internet, Kevin found out about it and deliberately made one episode to ensure all the rules got hit as frequently as possible.

I need to know more about this.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#480

Post by quercusa »

datavirtue wrote: post #372
karolist wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a person who built his aerated concrete house working a day job over 3 years, he did 98% of the tasks himself and probably 95% of those alone whilst maintaining a full-time day job. He has a non-english blog with many pictures and process documentation and was a huge inspiration to me whilst I DIY'd my new 2 bdr apartment from this https://imgur.com/a/UXfmx0Y to this https://imgur.com/a/vGntuhJ in the span of…

YouTube...essential craftsman. Builds a spec house and explains every detail from lot prep to selling it. Huge video series. I watched the whole thing and it reminded me of the craftsman I worked with as I was growing up.

Essential Craftsman How to Build a House : https://essentialcraftsman.com/houebuild

Great material and a real example of true craftsmanship. Highly recommended!

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