The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? • Hacker News Board

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#471

Post by jsjohnst » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

SamoyedFurFluff wrote: post #359

didericis wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s plausible either way, and the behavior is by no means a smoking gun, but it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. I’d expect a slightly different pattern of attempting to control information if there wasn’t any connection to the lab. The disappearance of Huang Yan Ling is another bit of evidence that pushes me towards the lab leak. If I were to assign a percentage to it, I’d say about 60% ch…

> it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. Do you actually have any evidence in which to compare and contrast how a government behaves when trying to cover up a manmade virus vs how a government behaves when trying to cover up a natural virus that has hopped species? Genuinely asking because we absolutely need to be pinning conclusions on evidence and not conjecture here. My counterpoint is Ai We…

> Do you actually have any evidence in which to compare and contrast how a government behaves when trying to cover up a manmade virus vs how a government behaves when trying to cover up a natural virus that has hopped species?

I’m not GP, but GP used the term “lab escape”, not “man made”. Lab escape could just as easily apply to a naturally occurring disease that was being studied in the lab.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#472

Post by tripletao » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #433

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

> Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses. No it doesn't. All it takes is bats around farmed animals like minks or raccoon dogs. That sets up a natural "gain of function" experiment with the bats passing viruses off to the farmed animals who pass it sequentially through the entire farm. The humans who work at those farms then bring in human coronaviruses which could have recombined with…

If SARS-CoV-2 evolved on a farm, then shouldn't it be particularly easy to find an intermediate host? No need for wilderness expeditions, just go to the barn and start swabbing. But more than a year later, we're still waiting.

And how does that explain its affinity for human ACE2? At least initially (right after it makes the zoonotic jump), the virus would probably show highest affinity for its animal host, and lower affinity for human ACE2. But SARS-CoV-2 shows highest affinity for human ACE2, and only primates with ACE2 very similar to humans show comparable affinity:

> The very high classification had at least 23/25 ACE2 residues identical to human ACE2 and other constraints at SARS-CoV-2 S-binding hot spots (Materials and Methods). The 18 species predicted as very high were all Old-World primates and great apes with ACE2 proteins identical to human ACE2 across all 25 binding residues.

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22311

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#473

Post by jcims » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

belval wrote: post #458

jcims wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minor detail, but the title of that reddit post instantly turned me off. It's indicates the author is clearly willing to state opinions as fact, and even though they walk it back in their TL;DR, it reeks of the same type of manipulation that conspiracists thrive on.

I can't dig up the thread, but the author kept pasting his reddit thread in the comments of another HN story a few weeks back. He does come off as very arrogant, a lot of his replies were like "yeah but we'd know".

I like this description of hubris: the pride that blinds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#474

Post by jollybean » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:41 PM UTC

walleeee wrote: post #259

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

The Chinese state is by no means the only body pushing politicized information regarding covid origins It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters

Because the origins are in China, and the lab breakout would be squarely blamed on China, the incentive for them to lie is basically existential. Since the CPP manipulates all data for their gain, it's very well within their objectives and capabilities to make up whatever story they think will work. Literally the future of their Empire is at stake.

As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I think would be seen as a small thing.

Paradoxically, it may be in everyone's interest for the plebes to never find out the truth. If there was magically some 'hard evidence' to appear, right now, that made China culpable ... we would be heading into another, massive recession. There would be riots around the world, Asians in every continent would face threats of violence and attacks for a decade. Forget America where those things are talked about ... you can forget being Chinese in Poland, it would be painful.

The populism would be intense and ferocious, but not only that, regular institutions, businesses, CEOs etc would also be upset for very good reason. I can see China facing lawsuits for literally Trillions of dollars.

It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war.

This is completely conspiratorial, but I honestly wonder if the West actively doesn't want to push for the truth because it would do more damage than good. If China knows 'they did it' they're probably going to make the changes necessary so it doesn't happen again, for their own benefit, and it's unlikely they need international pressure or the threat of litigation to improve those pressures. But that's just a fantastical idea.

Basically 'The Truth' is a different thing than 'The Impact of Public Information' and both of those things matter. It's a scary thought but it's the Realpolitik of information.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#475

Post by briandear » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:42 PM UTC

Bayesian_bro wrote: post #300

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

> I think everyone had the best of intentions

Then why did China silence Taiwan at the WHO? Why did doctors get arrested? Why did China lie about human-to-human transmission? Why are schools still closed in many parts of the US? Why was a travel ban for Chinese travelers called xenophobic while the UK travel ban wasn’t?

Best of intentions, my ass. This was political adrenaline from almost the start.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#476

Post by briandear » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:43 PM UTC

blumomo wrote: post #435

Bayesian_bro wrote: post #300

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

Is it fair to blame China alone if the institute was financed with foreign help?

Yes. Because China controls the lab, it’s security, it’s personnel, everything about it. It doesn’t matter who pays for the bomb, it matters who actually uses it.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#477

Post by dang » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:46 PM UTC

unanswered wrote: post #333

shoto_io wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I can relate to that. Most of 2020 we were focused on fighting the aftermath of the crisis. Now that things slowly are getting back to normal, at least in some Western countries, our focus shifts to the origins. I was also very skeptical in the beginning about the escape theory tbh. But after reading a couple of pieces I’m opening up to the possibility.

And how does this justify moral superiority to those of us who understood from the beginning that the lab hypothesis was the most likely? Or was that not true until you decided it was true?

Please don't post in the flamewar style to HN. This is a noticeable step in the wrong direction.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#478

Post by jollybean » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:46 PM UTC

didericis wrote: post #214

ximeng wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the lab origin theory is flawed based on the scientific reasoning, not the meta analysis. I agree that the meta analysis is inconclusive as it is not emphasising the science enough. The feeling I get is China doesn't really want to talk about it because it encourages ideologically motivated people to attack China, and serious scientists are mostly not convinced that this is a lab escape and so don't feel th…

I lean towards the lab hypothesis due to China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. The transition from arresting doctors to locking down cities doesn’t make much sense otherwise. You could argue they had motivation to arrest doctors talking about a natural infection if they thought they…

" I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural."

Oh that's easy: an authoritarian state would be arresting irrespective of the origin. They want to control the message , no matter what. The truth is a distraction in that case.

Once things flip, and the public becomes aware, then they can re-write history and make them national hero's. Chinese citizens are apparently skeptical of their own government, and get pissed off a lot, I suggest the Doctor who made the discovery is a little bit of a populist hero already.

The CCP's actions demonstrate they are fully authoritarian, that's about it.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#479

Post by bloak » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

Part of this discussion has got me thinking. If I were setting up a laboratory that does research on infective diseases I would definitely set it up as a small separate company, which would then apply for a research grant from the government, rather than as a wholly-owned part of some government department/ministry. Just in case, you know, some stupid employee slipped up and caused USD 10^N damages worldwide and there were to be a legal claim against the employer.

I wonder how the Wuhan laboratory was set up, legally. I wonder how other similar laboratories around the world are set up.

Another thought: I have so many times seen people write that if COVID was the result of an accident in a laboratory then "China" would be to blame. Would people blaim "Germany" for an accident in a German laboratory? I don't think so, at least not to the same extent. People seem to subconsciously think that China is the borg, or something.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#480

Post by briandear » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

xjlin0 wrote: post #352

zby wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought you misrepresented the linked paper - as it was clearly about checking some cross-immunity and not recombining genes - but then I found out deeper in the abstract: """ Since SHC014 could not be success fully isolated, a recombinant virus (rWIV1-SHC014S) was constructed based on the WIV1 backbone with the replacement of SHC014S gene, as described previously (Zengetal.,2016). The S sequence of SHC014 was ampl…

Recombination virus is commonly made everywhere, including US or China. Researchers made it mostly for getting genes for later use, antibody/antigen analysis in this case. Using virus/BAC is a very common lab technique and is very different from "intentionally making virus as a weapon to kill human". You can reconfirm with any of your wet-lab biotech majored friends. Please run an sequence analysis between rWIV1-SHC0…

When Company X has an active program of producing and researching offensive ransomware, and a long track record of suppression, then it’s plausible that they are producing ransomware. Not proof, but still plausibility. To disregard the potential that they are producing ransomware is foolish. Going out of your way to assert that they would never do such a thing makes you a shill for Company X and destroys credibility.