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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#471

Post by starfallg »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

>I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late.

I don't buy this argument at all. After various failures in handling the early phases outbreak, the authoritarian measures introduced at the later stages meant to contain the outbreak may have increased the infection and death toll in the areas that are quarantined, especially with the type of quarantine that China introduced. As the transmission of the virus is via vectors such as sewage and ventilation, forcing millions of people to stay at home in densely populated cities may actually increase the chance on infection within these communities.

I see lots of people attacking Japan's handling of the cruise ship quarantine, but these same people hardly bat an eyelid when China locks millions of people into their high-rise tower blocks which are as dense.

It may have prevented further transmission outside of Hubei, but are they not able to achieve the same by securing the borders of the region as opposed to locking in the local population?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#472

Post by simonh »

Hoasi wrote: post #451
brutt wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't looks so. Chinese scientist did research and found that virus was originated outside of Wuhan. It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

> IMHO, it's from Koltsovo Why do you think it comes from Koltsovo, in Russia?

There was an explosion at a virology lab in Koltsovo in September last year. There were no reported infections as a result and no apparent cases of Coronavirus or anything like it in the area or any established link with Wuhan, but apparently actual evidence isn't required for some people to come to all sorts of conclusions.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#473

Post by stef25 »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #457
stef25 wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would have to take place for you to stop thinking this virus is going to push the entire world over the edge and fully in to 1984? CDC and WHO are probably not perfect but saying they "utterly failed" because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these.

> because you're angry over not getting a free face mask is a bit disrespectful toward the many people their working their asses off in times like these. my partner is a health care professional and there aren't enough masks for them (this is central Europe btw). but yeah tell me about how hard they work and how I don't appreciate them.

Here in Belgium it's almost impossible to find masks as well, except if you want to pay 70+ EUR https://i.imgur.com/dGd56Ng.png I suspect Asian customers have been plundering online EU shops for a while.

Having said that, I don't think it's the responsibility of the WHO to distribute masks to health professionals like your partner.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#475

Post by claudeganon »

starfallg wrote: post #471
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

>I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. I don't buy this argument at all. After vario…

Fear unfortunately tends to lead people to praise authoritarians because identifying with them a gives a greater (if illusory) sense of control over the situation.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#476

Post by scarmig »

cm2187 wrote: post #392
wisty wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7 times is quite a lot more. That's like saying a Porsche is a bit more than a Toyota.

7 times a minuscule number may still be a minuscule number. A 30yo male has a 0.18% probability to die that year. It's a small enough number that it is irrational to worry about it [1]. [1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Would you say a 61yo male is significantly more likely to die than a 30yo male?

Because that's the age where the actuarial table is 7x worse for a man than at 30.

A couple hundred thousand dead here, another hundred thousand dead there, and soon we're talking about big numbers.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#477

Post by jdshaffer »

distantaidenn wrote: post #210
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…

I'm in Shizuoka, only about an hour "south" on the bullet train, and I have the same experience here. People don't seem any more proactive about this than they are already for the flu (many wear masks already at this time of year to avoid flu and allergies while there are still plenty who do not).

There's a bit of "anxious hesitation" in the air, but apparently not enough (yet?) to warrant more direct prevention...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#478

Post by yunruse »

jfkebwjsbx wrote: post #346
noodlesUK wrote: post #146

As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qu…

It is not your humble opinion. Sports are just entertainment nowadays. Lowest priority.

You’re not wrong, but you have a bit of a dismal look at it. Sports, like other forms of entertainment, are a sign of culture, and culture is the touchstone of a good workforce. Just like it’s important to take short breaks in the office, even small amounts of entertainment is important to keep us happy and focused. Large events, such as the Olympics and Oscars, give a pattern to the years, something to talk about and look forward to. They provide cohesion and fraternity. The Olympics staying up isn’t a higher priority than health, but it’s a mighty sign of things going wrong when they’re not being hosted.

Plus, y’know, a lot of problems have been solved, so these kind of events provide jobs and boost local and global economies.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#479

Post by makomk »

thombat wrote: post #245
pietroglyph wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not including people who returned on evacuation flights. This bit seems important. The “only 400 tested!” statistic people are citing seems much more reasonable in this context.

If you assume that only 400 other people in all of the USA have been travelling beyond its borders and/or in contact with such travellers, then it's ok to assume that all potentially infected have been tested.

The US placed tight restrictions on people who'd recently visited China entering the country. Other countries did not. Testing regimes elsewhere have been focused on visitors from China and people who've been in direct contact with them.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#480

Post by xtracto »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Specially since apparently on the USA, going to the hospital to take even test for the virus is costing thousands of dollars. I am afraid that a lot of people there will try to "ride it" as they do other health problems for the lack of money.
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