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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#471

Post by DocSavage »

SkyBelow wrote: post #384
munificent wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? If. Did Trump ever put more effort into anything in his campaign and Presidency than he put into preventing his tax returns from getting out?

Even if he is a lot poorer than he claims, he is still rich compared to what we normally consider rich vs poor. I'm not sure why we would suddenly change the baseline in this particular case. If you want to claim he isn't as rich as he claims, then then I'm not disputing that at all (I haven't a clue), but to claim he isn't rich does not align with existing evidence without fiddling with how we define rich and poor i…

The whole thread follows from a comment that the number of bankruptcies doesn't matter if he's rich. The point is not that he's rich. It's whether he's increased or decreased the fortune he was given. If he's given $413 million and now has less than that, he's not a good business man. Since we are blocked from all his finances, we don't know where he stands now, but the multiple bankruptcies and NYTimes investigation suggests he's not accumulated wealth more than spent it. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#472

Post by hodder »

blaser-waffle wrote: post #438
SkyBelow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

Is he still rich? The fact that he still hasn't released his taxes raises a lot of questions. Mark Cuban speculated that he wasn't a billionaire, and maybe not even a 500-millionaire. He talked big and pushed the brand, because that's all he had. His main claim to fame, nearest I can tell, is a mix of poorly run real estate, reality TV, schlepping shit tier steaks, and his online university that got sued out of exist…

I mean, 500 million is still pretty damn rich in my books. Sure he inherited it all, and has poorly managed the rest, but he is still rich by any normal person's metrics.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#473

Post by blackflame7000 »

notJim wrote: post #312
blackflame7000 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't import(buy) more than you export(sell) forever and hope to still be rich

Even if that's true, is a trade war (which seems to be hurting some of our exports anyway…) the way to fix the trade balance?

Tariff money is supposed to subsidize the industries harmed by the tariff. There is an inequality in goods in which the US has a major advantage. To put it simply, it's much easier for us to grow soy than it is for China to replicate our technology. Furthermore, the Chinese economy is not doing nearly as well as the US which means we are in a position of power at the moment. It is extremely important that the US minimizes its trade deficit even if it's a dose of medicine for the consumer that they don't initially like. They will like it when jobs move back to the US or even Mexico that were once overseas.

People wonder where all this wealth inequality is coming from when it's as plain as day. The inequality is coming from the fact that large companies are taking jobs that were performed domestically, and shipping them overseas where there are less regulations and cheaper labor. They then sell that same good at the same price to the domestic consumer who no longer has that job. Do that with enough industries and only the people who actually own the company stand to come out on top. That is why the middle class is shrinking.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#474

Post by golover721 »

While the press will blame trade tensions with China for this, in reality the US economy has been doing well lately, however outside the US the other major economies have not been growing. Ranging from plateauing to shrinking. That is the real reason we are seeing this correction.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#475

Post by whatdoyouknow »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #449
scarejunba wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine that what they meant to refer to is what we remember as "the bureaucracy" (the system of career policy-makers), but that term now has the connotations of inefficiency etc.

And "deep state" brings out the lunatics.

True story:

Someone who is part of the supposed DC government told me straight up that he is a lunatic.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#476

Post by [deleted] »

cestith wrote: post #223
blackflame7000 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't import(buy) more than you export(sell) forever and hope to still be rich

That's a very simplistic view of economics. The US is the world's largest market for just about everything. It creates enough wealth domestically that its citizens can afford to buy from other countries without bankrupting themselves or the nation. Read up on GDP, fractional banking, stock issuance, sovereign debt, oil as a commodity, and reserve currency.

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#478

Post by kaesar14 »

dageshi wrote: post #335
quotemstr wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the "worse than 2008" camp, mostly due to the reasons the OP gives. Another consideration is that our current expansion has been a very long one, and the longer an expansion goes on, the more fraudulent cruft accumulates, the cruft beings things like assets not marked to actual market value, money-losing businesses subsidized in various ways, and sometimes outright Madoff-like fraud. This cruft appears financi…

There isn't anything like the housing bubble right now. There's nothing that really allows people who shouldn't be able to borrow lots of money to borrow lots of money like housing did last time. What you're describing is just the normal stuff that happens in all recessions. And as much as we had a long boom, we also had quite a long painful recovery from 2008, it wasn't the same as normal recovery which explains why…

What about student loans?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#479

Post by opportune »

mdorazio wrote: post #468
opportune wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am pretty sure recessions will at least be good for ridesharing companies, since they will get more drivers, which will lower driver pay. Since they can treat the prices consumers are willing to pay as sticky, this could help them solve profitability issues. I am not sure how much a recession would affect demand or consumers' willingness to spend on ridesharing though, but I think overall a recession is actually go…

I'm not convinced a recession would be good for ridesharing companies. In a lot of places today, using Uber or Lyft is significantly more expensive than driving yourself on a per-mile basis, and way more expensive than alternatives like public transit. In a recession scenario where people are losing jobs and tightening personal budgets, it's pretty easy to envision a lot of people taking a hard look at their rideshar…

It depends a lot on how much ridesharing companies pass on any labor cost decreases to consumers, and consumers' demand curves.

Personally, my ridesharing use is a mix of relatively inelastic demand and elastic demand. Inelastically I am almost always going to use ridesharing to get to/from the airport, go places in other cities where I don't have a car and public transportation is too complex to figure out. I will usually use ridesharing if it is significantly faster and only $10 or so more expensive compared to public transportation that I can figure out. The only thing I would really reduce is using ridesharing to go out drinking - but if that becomes significantly cheaper, maybe not

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#480

Post by machineloveus »

novaRom wrote: post #428
cr0sh wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what led to two back-to-back world wars Note: I understand that "yield curve inversion" does not mean "recession, depression, war" is inevitable or likely - only that these things are indicators at best. That said and understood... Either our society is the dumbest there is (in ag…

WW2 has transformed our civilization significantly: socially, technologically, etc. Maybe there's no rapid change without great shake. We tolerate our current system of things because it works short term, but it is no way eternal or stable, it will be changing, and it will adapt itself to new circumstances, like to lack of fresh water and other ecological disasters current system causes.

that great shake was millions of people dying. we should strive to take the social and technological advancement without it.
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