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Gemini 3.5 Flash

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Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no it really not, even the soggiest bank has multiple api vendors atm.

I agree with parent. I'm not sure where your stance is coming from. From what I hear, most enterprise AI deployments are seat-based subscriptions with annual commitments.

50K FTE global firm. We’re still piloting ChatGPT. AI is a four-letter word and there are ridiculous ceremonies and hundreds of hours of overhead for every trivial use case.

Amusingly, Enterprise credits are more expensive than just paying a zero-commitment on-demand API fee. Personal accounts are still the best value.

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#462

Per million input/output tokens: Gemini 2.5 flash: $0.30/$2.50 Gemini 3.0 flash preview: $0.50/$3.00 Gemini 3.5 flash: $1.50/$9.00 Interesting pricing direction. I don't think we have ever seen a 3x price increase for in the immediate next same-sized model (and lol @ 3 only ever getting a preview). 3.5 flash costs similar to Gemini 2.5 pro which was $1.25/$10

They probably never intended to keep serving cheap models. This is a natural way to introduce the squeeze, now that they have people who built services on their API. It makes a lot of sense to have an abstraction layer where the provider doesn't matter. If you are working in Kotlin, Koog is excellent.

I think the big 3 are cartelizing and starting to ratchet up costs. GPT5.5 is not easily distinguishable from 5.1. I would it be shocked if we hit the ceiling and everyone is quietly positioning for the exit.

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#463
post #131

The pelican is a lot : https://github.com/simonw/llm-gemini/issues/133#issuecomment... Not a great bicycle though, it forgot the bar between the pedals and the back wheel and weirdly tangled the other bars. Expensive too - that pelican cost 13 cents: https://www.llm-prices.com/#it=11&ot=14403&sel=gemini-3.5-fl...

This is a perfect illustration of something I noticed with llm progress. Ask them to improve an svg like this, and it never fixes the missing crossbar or disconnected limbs, it just adds more stuff. In this example they have obviously improved greatly, and it contains a ridiculous amount of detail, but they still to get the basic shape of the frame wrong. It's weird. And the pattern shows up everywhere, try it with a…

So we have to train llms on debugging too, not just how to make things (which you easily train by feeding the outputs).

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#464
On my Agentic SQL benchmark it scores 19/25. That's... mediocre.

It means performs worse than 3.1 Flash Lite Preview (22/25), is slower (367s vs 142s) and is more expensive (75c vs 2c).

It is outperformed by Gemma4 26B-A4B in every way(!)

https://sql-benchmark.nicklothian.com/?highlight=google_gemi...

(Switch to the cost vs performance chart to see how far this is off the Pareto frontier)

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#465
now matter what google does for some reason the agentic performance of their models is missing something, i hope this release is stronger. we need more competition.

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#466
For those who would like to know the total and active parameter count of this model: even though Google doesn't disclose the model technicals, we can infer them within relatively tight margins based on what we do know.

We know they serve the model on TPU 8i, which we have plenty of hard specs for (so we know the key constraints: total memory and bandwidth and compute flops). We can also set a ceiling on the compute complexity and memory demand of the model based on knowing they will be at least as efficient as what is disclosed in the Deepseek V4 Technical Report.

We can also assume that the model was explicitly built to run efficiently in a RadixAttention style batched serving scenario on a single TPU 8i (so no tensor parallelism, etc. to avoid unnecessary overheads... Google explicitly designed the 8th-generation inference architecture to eliminate the need for tensor sharding on mid-sized models).

We know Google intends to serve this model at a floor speed of around 280 tok/s too.

Putting all these pieces together, we can confidently say this model is ~250-300B total, and 10-16B active parameters. Likely mostly FP4 with FP8 where it matters most.

Visual:

  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │                   TPU 8i VRAM (288 GB)                 │
  ├───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┤
  │   Static Model Weights    │  Dynamic Allocations &     │
  │   (250B - 300B @ Mixed    │  Compressed KV Caches      │
  │   FP4/FP8)                │  (RadixAttention / SRAM)   │
  │   ~110 GB - 150 GB        │  ~138 GB - 178 GB          │
  └───────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────┘
I do model serving optimization work. This is napkin math.

Edit: There's one factor I under-rated in my initial estimate... TurboQuant. This is a compute to KV memory use tradeoff. It's plausible with TurboQuant at a quality-neutral setting they've gotten the model up to 400B with similar economics. This is a variable effecting concurrency and the the way they decided total model size was likely based on what they see for the average user's average KV cache depth in real-world usage.

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Amazon was unprofitable for over a decade, and they were public. Amazon was unprofitable because they poured their revenue into growth. On paper, they were in the red, but everyone - especially investors - saw what was going to happen, given their trajectory. Is it the case that any of these AI companies are actually making a ton of money and growing accordingly? AFAICT, we've just got [a] big players like Google t…

Yes that is exactly what is happening. OpenAI and Anthropic are the fastest growing companies by revenue ever and their gross profit margins are healthy.

Then why do they constantly need more and more funding from VC and Google and MS and NVIDIA? Why is it all circular dealing? Why aren’t there smaller AI startups running these smaller, “profitable” models?

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes that is exactly what is happening. OpenAI and Anthropic are the fastest growing companies by revenue ever and their gross profit margins are healthy.

According to this article[0]: > HSBC Global Investment Research projects that OpenAI still won’t be profitable by 2030, even though its consumer base will grow by that point to comprise some 44% of the world’s adult population (up from 10% in 2025). Beyond that, it will need at least another $207 billion of compute to keep up with its growth plans. This article is from six months ago. Was HSBC wrong; did something dr…

Also OpenAI somehow having 44% of the world’s population as its customer base is a plainly absurd goal and will never happen, not in 5 years

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#469

Per million input/output tokens: Gemini 2.5 flash: $0.30/$2.50 Gemini 3.0 flash preview: $0.50/$3.00 Gemini 3.5 flash: $1.50/$9.00 Interesting pricing direction. I don't think we have ever seen a 3x price increase for in the immediate next same-sized model (and lol @ 3 only ever getting a preview). 3.5 flash costs similar to Gemini 2.5 pro which was $1.25/$10

To me this is almost like a tone-deaf naming change.

Empty Slot (new Pro as Mythos competitor?)

Old Pro -> now Flash

Old Flash -> now Flash Lite

Old Flash Lite -> now Gemma (and not served by Google)

I say "almost" because the situation is more fluid and unstable than a normal naming change. If Apple were to do this with laptops, maybe it'd be like, Air gets better and pricier and becomes Pro-level model, Neo same way becomes Air-level model, etc. But Apple's too design oriented to do something like that. Google, well...

This change has made me decide to move to a multi-provider situation like through OpenRouter for consumer-facing LLM api in a service I'm building. I just can't trust Google to not constantly rearrange everything under our feet. Doesn't mean I won't use Gemini, but it clearly means I need to have others in the mix ready to go. In fact I used to use lots of Flash Lite, which is now Gemma territory, and I can't get that served by Google anymore and don't want to run my own hardware.

But in any case, I'd compare this "Flash" model with previous "Pro" on all metrics. It's kinda like if in clothes a Small suddenly became what was a Large, or at Starbucks a Grande became the new de facto Venti. And only for the new! drinks.

And if we think this way, it's possible that prices are actually falling?

Re: Gemini 3.5 Flash

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their rationale might be that it’s size and intelligence are growing relative to the market. Fwiw it’s beating Claude Sonnet in most benchmarking (benchmaxxing?), yet they’ve priced it almost half off on a per token basis. Question is are you going to persuade anyone with this argument? Are there many devs at Google who legit prefer Gemini over Claude and Codex? Would love to hear about that.

> Are there many devs at Google who legit prefer Gemini over Claude and Codex? Would love to hear about that. A few weeks ago, Steve Yegge claimed he'd heard that Google employees are banned from using Claude & Codex. https://x.com/Steve_Yegge/status/2046260541912707471 A number of Googlers replied to say that was totally false, including Demis Hassabis, but they were all on the DeepMind team. https://x.com/demishass…

> and because the ban applied outside of Google work as well

I think false (or hasn't filtered to everyone lol)

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