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OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

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Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#461
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-improving system given enough time to self-improve doesn't beat non-self-improving system?

Humans are, each individually and aggregates collectively, self-improving systems. Much moreso than modern AI systems are.

How do I individually and collectively increase my intelligence?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#462
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-improving system given enough time to self-improve doesn't beat non-self-improving system?

Why are human doctors non-self improving? If anything, using AI, they may improve more than before.

This seems to produce skill atrophy. "It's okay because the AI will pick up the slack" is kinda true but doesn't exactly strengthen the human position though.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#463
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much of what I know from women in my life is that the human element of medicine is almost a strict negative for them. As a guy it hasn't been much better, but at least doctors listen to me when I say something.

One of, if not THE biggest challenge in getting treatment is getting past insurance rules designed to deny treatment. This is much, much easier when you're able to convince a doctor (and/or trained medical staff) to argue on your behalf. If you can't get those folks to listen to you, that's probably not gonna happen. You might have to go through several different practices before you find a sympathetic ear. Now repla…

Hate to break it to you. It’s the same outside of America. Yes, your insurance system is broken. But no just because you live in say Sweden you won’t get all the treatment you want directly. It is a pain to get it and if you get it you will often have to wait a long time (unless it’s a heart attack in progress then they are fast)

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#464
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Medical research moves. Very. Slowly.

That's a good thing The medical equivalent to "move fast and break things" would be "move fast and kill people"

People die either way. People die because treatments sit in the lab for years instead of in clinics.

Consider the FLASH oncology treatment. In 1995 Dr Fauvadon figure out how to make radiation therapy much much safer. He spent 14 years before sharing it in 2009. In 2014 it was actually published. [1]

Know anybody who died of cancer in those DECADES?

[1] https://institut-curie.org/news/dr-vincent-favaudon-receives...

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems likely to me that doctors whose job is almost or entirely about making diagnoses and prescribing treatments won't be able to keep up in the long run, where those who are more patient facing will still be around even after AI is better than us at just about everything. If I were picking a specialty now, I'd go with pediatrics or psychiatry over something like oncology.

You are confusing the job with a subset of tasks. Some tasks can be automated, some won't. That doesn't mean LLMs, which cannot tell how many r's are in strawberry, will replace anyone.

I'm not. I understand the difference and also that through improvements to the core models as well as harnesses, LLMs are able to handle an increasing share of tasks. I also understand that these things will continue to improve until AI can automate entire jobs.

You, on the other hand, are confusing LLMs from the past with current SOTA LLMs, which can tell how many rs are in strawberry.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#466
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it's possible you misheard/misremember this, considering the temperature for concern is 104.

You are objectively incorrect. A fever is considered 100.4 or 38 C. Here are a few links to prove it: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/symptoms/10880-fever https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/fever/symptom... https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/whats-considered-a-fever-... https://www.brownhealth.org/be-well/fever-and-body-temperatu... https://www.childrensmercy.org/siteassets/media-documents-fo... I c…

They aren’t objectively incorrect. You are conflating two things:

- You aren’t considered to have a fever until you get to 100.4. Anything less than that isn’t considered a fever, let alone a concerning one

- A fever isn’t considered concerning (ie dangerous) until it reaches about 104. Anything between 100.4 and 104 is just a regular fever and isn’t considered concerning.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#467
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?

Doctors talk to patients? I know. I know. Part of it is that talking to patients on average is useless but still this can’t be really used for an argument against AI. Still doctors can have a more broad picture of the situation since they can look at the patient as a whole; something the LLM can’t really synthesize in its context.

There’s really nothing preventing an LLM from having the context a doctor does. The two avenues of context gathering by the doctor are:

- looking at their medical history/charts

- asking follow up questions

An LLM based system is trivially capable of doing both of those.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other countries, and the patients in them all have similar data

Other countries actually don't necessarily have a similar mix of ailments, median patient appearance and style of communication or even recommended course of action and most of the ones with more sophisticated medical care also have strict medical privacy laws. If you're genuinely unaware of this, I'm not sure you're in a position to be making "one year with a camera, how hard can it be" arguments... (Where AI is lik…

I think you're being silly if you think the amount of money at stake here, not the mention the health of billions of people is going to be stymied by privacy laws.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can't order many of your own labs Really? Which ones? > insurance won't pay for them Non sequitur, replacing doctors with AI will not help you pay for the preposterous US healthcare system. Vote!

> > you can't order many of your own labs > Really? Which ones? There are extremely short lists of labs you can order yourselves. Virtually all of them are not on those short lists?

I would love to hear of any specific example, I will happily either show you how to order it or learn something myself.
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