Earlier quoted context omitted.
Self-improving system given enough time to self-improve doesn't beat non-self-improving system?
Humans are, each individually and aggregates collectively, self-improving systems. Much moreso than modern AI systems are.
OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
461–470 of 500 posts
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#462Earlier quoted context omitted.
Self-improving system given enough time to self-improve doesn't beat non-self-improving system?
Why are human doctors non-self improving? If anything, using AI, they may improve more than before.
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#463Earlier quoted context omitted.
So much of what I know from women in my life is that the human element of medicine is almost a strict negative for them. As a guy it hasn't been much better, but at least doctors listen to me when I say something.
One of, if not THE biggest challenge in getting treatment is getting past insurance rules designed to deny treatment. This is much, much easier when you're able to convince a doctor (and/or trained medical staff) to argue on your behalf. If you can't get those folks to listen to you, that's probably not gonna happen. You might have to go through several different practices before you find a sympathetic ear. Now repla…
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#464Earlier quoted context omitted.
Medical research moves. Very. Slowly.
That's a good thing The medical equivalent to "move fast and break things" would be "move fast and kill people"
Consider the FLASH oncology treatment. In 1995 Dr Fauvadon figure out how to make radiation therapy much much safer. He spent 14 years before sharing it in 2009. In 2014 it was actually published. [1]
Know anybody who died of cancer in those DECADES?
[1] https://institut-curie.org/news/dr-vincent-favaudon-receives...
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#465Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems likely to me that doctors whose job is almost or entirely about making diagnoses and prescribing treatments won't be able to keep up in the long run, where those who are more patient facing will still be around even after AI is better than us at just about everything. If I were picking a specialty now, I'd go with pediatrics or psychiatry over something like oncology.
You are confusing the job with a subset of tasks. Some tasks can be automated, some won't. That doesn't mean LLMs, which cannot tell how many r's are in strawberry, will replace anyone.
You, on the other hand, are confusing LLMs from the past with current SOTA LLMs, which can tell how many rs are in strawberry.
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#466Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like it's possible you misheard/misremember this, considering the temperature for concern is 104.
You are objectively incorrect. A fever is considered 100.4 or 38 C. Here are a few links to prove it: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/symptoms/10880-fever https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/fever/symptom... https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/whats-considered-a-fever-... https://www.brownhealth.org/be-well/fever-and-body-temperatu... https://www.childrensmercy.org/siteassets/media-documents-fo... I c…
- You aren’t considered to have a fever until you get to 100.4. Anything less than that isn’t considered a fever, let alone a concerning one
- A fever isn’t considered concerning (ie dangerous) until it reaches about 104. Anything between 100.4 and 104 is just a regular fever and isn’t considered concerning.
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#467Earlier quoted context omitted.
To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?
Doctors talk to patients? I know. I know. Part of it is that talking to patients on average is useless but still this can’t be really used for an argument against AI. Still doctors can have a more broad picture of the situation since they can look at the patient as a whole; something the LLM can’t really synthesize in its context.
- looking at their medical history/charts
- asking follow up questions
An LLM based system is trivially capable of doing both of those.
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#468Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#469Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are other countries, and the patients in them all have similar data
Other countries actually don't necessarily have a similar mix of ailments, median patient appearance and style of communication or even recommended course of action and most of the ones with more sophisticated medical care also have strict medical privacy laws. If you're genuinely unaware of this, I'm not sure you're in a position to be making "one year with a camera, how hard can it be" arguments... (Where AI is lik…
Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors
#470Earlier quoted context omitted.
> you can't order many of your own labs Really? Which ones? > insurance won't pay for them Non sequitur, replacing doctors with AI will not help you pay for the preposterous US healthcare system. Vote!
> > you can't order many of your own labs > Really? Which ones? There are extremely short lists of labs you can order yourselves. Virtually all of them are not on those short lists?