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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> If you claim to be changing your life in any way in response to this then you're just putting a fig leaf on decisions that you've already made. How insulting. Bad faith arguments have become way too prevalent on this site.

I will remove that accusation in the interests of not distracting from my main point. I don't know you and the particulars of your situation and apologize for an unsupported insinuation.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#462
post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher? > The birth control pill decoupling sex from pregnancy. Boom. Done. You had the answer already and just didn't reconcile your own thoughts. You really need to interpret the comment you're replying to in the context of here and now, not 100 years ago before people had a…

> Boom. Done. You had the answer already and just didn't reconcile your own thoughts. TFR has been falling in the US since the 1800s, long before birth control.

TFR doesn't account for mortality which has also continuously fallen since then. If you're not adjusting for that, then you're looking at meaningless decontextualized numbers. Obviously if people want a certain number of children and the children keep dying then they're going to need to give birth more to get the right number of children. Birthing is not a useful measure on its own because pre-adulthood dead children lead to the same impact on population growth as no children in the first place.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just hard now. Before I had kids I had a network of friends and had a great social life. Now it's just me and my wife. If I want more friends I'll have to have more kids I guess? I have 4 now. One (my first) is severely autistic. Financially the cost? I pay about 6,000 a month in daycare. 2k a month in healthcare expenses. Then community wise. Every time I've gone to take them to the movies, or to a restaurant o…

You're not alone, Kraig911. It's very hard to be a parent in modern society. My wife and I's friends have basically vanished from our lives, they have zero initiative or interest in coming over to see the kids or help in any way. They say they do, but they rely on us to take the initiative and make social things happen. After dozens of rejections or silence from dozens of them, it's rejection fatigue with the friends…

> Many of our child-free friends are going to go through a lot of loneliness when they're old

I've seen this "kids are insurance against loneliness" logic repeated often, but I don't believe this bares out in reality. I personally know plenty of child-free older couples who remain quite happy and social. I also know plenty of parents whose kids don't speak to them anymore or whose children have lives on the other side of the country/world. Anecdotally the loneliest older people I know are ones who have put it upon their children to keep themselves from loneliness.

> And despite all that, we love them and we want to have them

As a parent I always find it funny that we need to add this to every statement of frustration of family life (I'm not critiquing you, I also say this every time I mention any frustration about parenting). It is worth recognizing that saying the contrary is fundamentally taboo. I find this to be another under-discussed challenging of parenting: you can never even entertain the idea that "maybe this wasn't what I wanted"

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#464

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

The data doesn't support your position.

Birthrates historically increase when the world is burning. They fall during times of peace and prosperity.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are such deep contradictions in these thoughts. You think that the illegal immigrant is going to starve without the criminal employer? When just a second ago you were saying they should be deported, and that "most" people think that's OK? We all lose when these immigrants are deported, and every mass deportation means simultaneously a mass deprivation of rights and a mess of big mistakes that ruin people's fami…

What can I say, I contain multitudes. I think that yes, they should be deported. This is not a punishment. If your solution is that they should not be deported, but employers should be prosecuted, then you're saying that you want the immigrants to starve. If your solution is that they should not be deported, but we should extend labor protections to them and force employers to hire them legally, then I think there is…

My thoughts on this have always been a blend of your two 'they should not be deported' scenarios, with a slow, measured rollout.

Sudden changes cause too much chaos, and you don't always know what works until you try it. Avoiding entitlement abuse is always going to be part of the conversation, and it seems to me the fix for this (and nearly any other issue) needs to be approached carefully from both the supply and demand sides until what's effective is more clear.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#466

Living in a city that this administration has constantly been attacking forced me and my wife, as well as many of our neighbors, to put off our family growth plans. Not only did many of my neighbors lose their jobs, but others are simply fearful of living their lives. We're fine financially, have housing, etc, but at this point why would we go through the stress of raising a child when a masked federal agent might ju…

I am with you, it is a scary time. I have to remind myself that we have gone through worst times. My grandfather grew up in a ranch, at 22, along with his extended family and friends, they took arms and joined a revolution, they overthrew a dictator. They fought on the back of a horse for years. It was a rough life, but they endured, and here I am. Enjoying a life so comfortable that would be unimaginable for them. You cannot stop moving in life because things can go wrong.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#467

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> My take on it is: you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones. Anecdata of one - but I think one non-trivial contributor that I haven't seen people talking about is... From my experience and the experience of most of my friends and family... people actively DON'T want kids until about 30 - and often times that's to…

IMO this is a huge piece of it. People want to have it all, and things are structured where in order to have a decent income, you have to go to college. Then to pay off your loans and make it worthwhile you have to work a number of years. Then you have Madison Avenue telling you you need a fancy car, vacations, etc. You’re told you need to own a house to have a kid. You’re not even to zero by the time you’re 30, the same place prior generations were at 18.

That leaves a lot less years to have kids. Personally I started late just as in my example, and I’m very fortunate to have three kids, but I probably would have four if we had started a little earlier. If you subtract one kid from every family you basically get what we’re seeing.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there are two steps: 1) Make people want to have kids. 2) Make it feasible for them to do so. People already want more kids than they're having, so focussing on (2) at the moment is probably the best approach.

Everyone I know who wanted more kids wanted them before having 1 or 2. And it is almost always the men who wanted more kids, as women are more cognizant of the sacrifices and risks. And this applies to financially secure couples in the US who willingly stop at 1 or 2. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

When we were dating my wife always said she didn't want to have an only child. I was fine with only having one but always assumed we'd have at least two.

After going through pregnancy, she decided she was fine with never doing that again. Her's wasn't an especially difficult pregnancy, she simply didn't realize the toll it would take on her.

So we have one kid who is about to leave the nest.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#469

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

The growing population of economically non-productive people requires a growing population of economically productive people to support them. At some point, you could take 100% of the output of the productive people and it would still not be enough to support retirees et al. At the limit, not growing the productive population puts younger generations in a position of existing solely for the purpose of serving the non…

Cool where do I sign to opt out?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#470
post #362

This may offend some, but I think the large amount of women joining the labor force may be a factor. American society, pre-WWII, usually had only one member of the household at work. More often than not it was the man who went to work, and the women stayed home to take care of the children. American society, pre-1930s (the Great Depression saw the rise of the female workers) was build on a one-income household. And y…

In my opinion, it's this, though I think it's a second-order effect. I believe that the issue isn't so much that women are working, but rather that there is a shortage of household labor. This labor pool is what was traditionally used for childcare needs. When you pair that labor shortage with (terrible) modern parenting standards, there just isn't enough time to raise kids without becoming a zombie.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-p2hvebQAEkEBg?format=jpg&name=...

Edit: To be clear, I think there are multiple contributing factors. It's just that, in my view, the time/labor shortage is the core of the issue. Everything else feeds into it in some way. The factors eventually start stacking and problems that contribute to the time issue get exacerbated by their own contributing factors.

Economics pressures, for instance. Bad housing economics means couples work maximum hours to afford daily expenses, decreasing available household labor. It also fractures extended family systems when people have to relocate for cheaper housing or better jobs, eliminating the traditional labor-pooling arrangements for childrearing. Generally poor median household economics keep parents in constant anxiety too, which then requires time to be spent on coping routines.

Social atomization has further taken away the kind of pooled childcare labor that used to absorb overflow. Media has displaced churches, bars, parks, and bowling alleys with private screen time, shrinking social circles with scarce opportunities to rebuild them. Car-based infrastructure further reduces local community interaction and subtly dehumanizes neighbors into obstacles who steal parking and slow you down. Remote work and online shopping accelerate this deterioration. The result of all of this? Parents who already don't have extended family, also don't have friends, neighbors. or community to cover childcare needs. The sort of "Hang out at the neighbor's house while I go to my book club meeting." scenario has largely gone extinct because of this.

Even if a couple does better than the average bear in these areas, and they have options, ambient paranoia bottlenecks their outsourcing of childcare anyway. Our media environment has normalized constant fear. Fear that every blade of grass conceals a potential predator, so every adult is regarded as a serious risk to your kid(s). This compounds further because it's gotten to the point where children (and teenagers) can't play outside or otherwise exist independently without supervision. This increases the time parents must spend on daily childcare needs. So not only can they not decrease the time spent, but they now have to spend even more because of it.

On top of all of this, the fraying social fabric creates an effect similar to cellular breakdown. Where those who become disconnected from the larger biological system stop acting for the collective benefit and further prioritize the self, becoming cancerous. This leads to growing numbers of extremist, anti-social individuals with poor mental health. Individuals who both compound the scarcity and isolation of parents, and justify their media-sourced fear of other adults. This is an example of the contributing factors to the contributing factors.

You get the idea.

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