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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#461

Post by margalabargala »

engineer_22 wrote: post #398
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so This is how you grow a sclerotic, internationally-uncompetitive domestic industry. See: shipbuilding. Where tariffs work is as a nursery policy. Give firms a safe haven to grow in. Then let competition hone them. South Korea has pioneered this playbook; China copied it. We were sort of doing it, but the current administration blew up our nascent new energy industry.

> the current administration blew up our nascent new energy industry. Which industry is that?

Solar, wind, and grid-attached battery.

In the late teens, China was dominating all of these industries.

Under policies of the Biden administration, these industries were growing domestically in the US and we were increasing our share of the global market.

Over the last year those domestic industries have been destroyed. They are barely surviving and have stopped rapidly expanding. All gains made against China's dominance in these technologies has been lost, and then some.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#462

Post by rdtsc »

tialaramex wrote: post #449
Winblows11 wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But only 56% in a poll? Is that enough for another referendum and guarantee rejoin? EU politicians have made it clear, ALL UK opt-outs will be gone if UK rejoins, whether it is UK opt-out regarding budget (like paying billions less in annual EU fees like UK did before), to special fishing rights pre-Brexit, to forced to adopt Euro currency and drop Pound sterling.

Rejoining is seen as politically too risky in the short term. As you observe, the UK would not get back its privileged position, there are probably some bargains to be struck but a track to the Euro currency is almost certainly mandatory and that'd be unpopular because people really like our banknotes for some reason and the Euro deliberately just looks like play money, the illustrations deliberately don't show real…

> Rejoining is seen as politically too risky in the short term. As you observe, the UK would not get back its privileged position,

Just curious, what privileges did it have? I can think of keeping it currency only.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#463

Post by lpcvoid »

pendenthistory wrote: post #408
parsimo2010 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

Interestingly, there seems to be more good will and amiable vibes between EU nationalities than within the US even. Even being enemies for a thousand years, I don't doubt that Swedish and Danish men would go to war for one another, or French and German. It's complicated yes, but the continent is more unified in spirit than it may seem to an outsider.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#464

Post by RealityVoid »

saulpw wrote: post #412
russdill wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We print money, send it around the world, and the world sends us goods. It was a great thing.

For us individually. For us collectively it was a horrible thing. We lost the means and incentive to produce anything durable, including a healthy, educated, sustainable society.

Yeah, I've heard this interpretation before that this is the US trying to wean itself off the resource curse bestowed by a strong dollar. I think it's a fun idea, but there is no reason or strategy to this, I'm afraid. Just stupid people doing what they do best, doing stupid things.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#465

Post by echelon »

RealityVoid wrote: post #385
echelon wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a great interest in geopolitics. I didn't vote for Trump, and I already told you this is coming from within the DoD. These are military decisions. These are 50-year plans. Here I was 10 months ago and two years ago saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43505524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36896699

I am not saying you're stupid or misinformed, I'm saying you're missing the point. Understanding what Trump wants doesn't require you to understand geopolitics, it requires you know clinical psychiatry.

Trump doesn't want this. He didn't come up with the idea.

Trump was told and encouraged to want this by the little birdies at the DoD.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#466

Post by legitster »

russdill wrote: post #374
legitster wrote: post #175

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

We print money, send it around the world, and the world sends us goods. It was a great thing.

Something that weirdly both Milton Friedman and Karl Marx would equally agree on.

The point of an economy is not to make a profit or collect currency. The point of an economy is to provide ourselves with goods and services.

Focusing all of our efforts on making things so that we can send them to other countries in exchange for pieces of paper is backwards.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#467

Post by jll29 »

pendenthistory wrote: post #408
parsimo2010 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

Interestingly, there seems to be more good will and amiable vibes between EU nationalities than within the US even. Even being enemies for a thousand years, I don't doubt that Swedish and Danish men would go to war for one another, or French and German. It's complicated yes, but the continent is more unified in spirit than it may seem to an outsider.

The great minds that - after WWII - built the new Europe had in mind that there should never be war again, which is best realized when former enemies become friends and closer bonds are established at multiple levels: politically, economically, culturally (unions, trading exchanges, visits/open borders/teaching common European values in schools).

There is a strong political and cultural foundation in geographic Europe for the political EU: some exemplary giants/EU co-architects:

Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman

European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) Schuman Declaration (1950) [It is only right that the R. Schuman Roundabout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Schuman_Roundabout Rue houses the European quarter in Brussels.]

Konrad Adenauer

Promoted reconciliation with France pro-European

Alcide De Gasperi

Integrated Italy into Western Europe Advocated supranational institutions

Paul-Henri Spaak

institutional designer, key role in the Treaties of Rome (1957) helped design the European Economic Community (EEC) Advocated supranational institutions

Walter Hallstein

1st President, European Commission. Built EC into powerful, independent institution Championed the supremacy of European law

Altiero Spinelli

Wrote the Ventotene Manifesto (while imprisoned by Fascists) Advocated a federal Europe

Winston Churchill

A paradoxical but crucial figure: called for a “United States of Europe” (1946 speech) Influenced Europe’s post-war direction despite UK distance

François Mitterrand

Drove Maastricht Treaty with Helmut Kohl Pushed for the € Symbolized Franco-German partnership

Helmut Kohl

Franco-German friendship exemplified by Mitterand-Kohl personal friendship "Architect of modern Europe" German reunification Key figure behind the EU and monetary union

It's ironic that the name "U.S.E." (United States of Europe) was first proposed by a Brit, alas a smart one, and I'm sure Sir Winston Churchill would have had the oratory abilities to convince his countrymen that his idea had merit, but he did not live to see it. The Federation of Europe or United States of Europe is the logical end-point of the joint vision of all these foundational leaders.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#468

Post by horsawlarway »

jollyllama wrote: post #156
hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

Nothing. The Dollar is antifragile. The worse it gets, the more entrenched it becomes. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

Your linked page doesn't actually appear to render any sort of compelling argument for this.

In fact - the entire argument seems to more accurately hinge the conditional left off the main saying, so the full description is:

"Bad money drives out good if they exchange for the same price."

But that requires a legal structure that enforces the disparity, and the summary of the whole thing basically boils down to:

---

If given the choice of what money to accept, people will accept the money they believe to be of highest long-term value and not accept what they believe to be of low long-term value. If not given the choice and required to accept all money, good and bad, they will tend to keep the money of greater perceived value in their own possession and pass the bad money to others.

---

But if anything - this is exactly an argument for the value of soft power to the US, because we can't enforce how other nations transact, except through soft power.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#469

Post by kayamon »

throwaway132448 wrote: post #370
ahnick wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally cryptocurrencies are the single greatest alternative ever made. Opt out of the system where the government can just print money into thin air and old guys drawing dots on a plot set interest rates in closed meetings. If you want to hedge USD exposure just buy a Bitcoin ETF or if you really can't stomach cryptocurrencies b/c you don't want to be ostracized from the orange site, buy Gold. We are not going bac…

Right up until you lose your internet access.

It'll all still be there when you get it back.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#470

Post by Waterluvian »

chmod775 wrote: post #267
Waterluvian wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually have a greater disgust for those who see it but don't act. I think this line from an incredibly relevant book is precisely this: > "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Those who act on behalf of evil are not free from…

The US wasn't exactly "friendly", but comparing US hegemony to Nazi Germany is a bit much, don't you think? /s

Y'know, yeah I think you're right. It's not like they're dressing the part and marching through the streets like some sort of secret police agency.

https://ibb.co/qMynfBBW

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