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Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

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Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#461

Post by CGMthrowaway »

tsimionescu wrote: post #446
CGMthrowaway wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I was wondering how you could get such a high impact overall. But it seems one in 6 households are on GLP-1 drugs in the US. I had the same question and did some back of the envelope math. The data I have seen says the average American eats 400-700 excess daily calories, and 3600 daily calories total. That means 10-20% excess per person. If everyone started eating the right amount overnight, grocery spend would drop…

These calorie numbers don't make much sense to me. The typical recommendation for how much a man should eat is 2000-2800 Cal/day, and for the average woman that is 1600-2200 Cal/day, depending on age and exercise levels [0]. So if it were true that the average American ate 3600 Cal/day, they would be eating 800-2000 excess Cal, not 400-700. Even if we assumed that average food cost/Cal is a meaningful concept, the re…

You're right I seem to be referencing bad data, and the excess is probably more like 10-50 cals/day.

Whatever the figures are, what's interesting to me is the growing secular impact on an entire sector of the economy (the most stable and inelastic sector). If eating right means spending 5% less, extrapolating that across the entire sector, not just for the 16% using GLPs today, could be catastrophic

I suspect ultimately though supply will meet demand and prices may even rise for the food people are still eating

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#462

Post by blell »

lm28469 wrote: post #403
mullingitover wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not remotely weird: people were poorer and food was more scarce across the board pre-WWII.

But how did people survive their craving, they must have all been completely on the verge of insanity right? Are all these lean and healthy people from archive videos actually suffering and in distress? Poor souls...

“Eating disorders didn’t exist one century ago” is indeed some take.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#463

Post by seeEllArr »

cthor wrote: post #125
mschwaig wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A consequence of universal healthcare that people don't talk about much is that it turns unhealthy citizens from an individual cost into more of a collective one. So it makes sense that countries with universal healthcare regulate in favor of their citizens as opposed to their food industry, because they're paying for the consequences more directly.

Not that this affects the political calculus (where perception may as well be reality), but the cost burden specific to universal healthcare is actually opposite this intuition. Things like obesity, smoking, and alcoholism all kill you before you can get too old. Healthy citizens end up using far more of the far more expensive end-of-life care, to the point where it outweighs the extra healthcare the unhealthy citize…

[dead]

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#464

Post by SoftTalker »

bluedino wrote: post #287
sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I decided to check one of my local grocery stores because I honestly wasn't sure where they stood relative to each other. Most Little Debbie varieties, for a standard package containing 6 or 12 items depending on the size of the items, are listed at $3.19. Apples are commonly sold in 3 pound bags, which the internet suggests would contain 6-12 apples depending on the variety of apple and individual sizing. The 3 poun…

Maybe I should have compared individuals then. One apple can be had for less than dollar and one snack cake is over a dollar Either way people should be eating apples, bananas, pears (as well as cheese, nuts...), instead of snack cakes.

Modern apples have been bred to be larger and a lot sweeter than "natural" apples which are smaller and more sour. Not saying they are equivalent to a processed snack cake but they aren't especially healthy either.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#465

Post by blell »

paul7986 wrote: post #298
carlmr wrote: post #6

>The share of U.S. households reporting at least one user rose from about 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024. I was wondering how you could get such a high impact overall. But it seems one in 6 households are on GLP-1 drugs in the US. In my friend circle in Germany I don't even know one single person on this stuff. It's insane to me that so many people need these to get off the processed foods killing them…

We all drive to where we’re going we do not walk or bike daily like most Europeans do. When in Europe for my ten day trips I always come back five to ten pounds lighter. Myself I count calories (1500 to 1800 a day for middle aged dude) and lol drive to do my daily five mile walks on a rail trail. Foods here if ur lazy and just buy whatever indeed are lasted with preservatives but you can put some effort into ur healt…

Because you are on vacation. That’s why you walk. Europe is much bigger than Amsterdam and Berlin. People drive everywhere here too. You should look up average steps per day by country and you will see the difference between the US and European countries is practically inconsequential, especially taking into account how few calories walking burns.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#466

Post by Esophagus4 »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #441
Esophagus4 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my (obviously anecdotal) experience, that’s not who the primary GLP1 user is. It’s the suburban mom (or dad sometimes) who wants help losing a little weight. Instead of being 300lbs like your example, she’s 160lbs and wants to be 140lbs.

I really feel like this is just about the circle you are in. How many 300lb people do you know? 16% of the country is on GLP-1's as of mid 2024, Im sure its higher now. Every single massively overweight person I know has at least tried GLP-1s

Yeah that could be - I don’t know many 300lb people well enough to talk about that.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#467

Post by bluGill »

matwood wrote: post #396
bluGill wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cooking good food takes time. I can slap some pre-made burgers in a pan, throw some buns in a toaster and have a "meal" in 10 minutes. I can stop by fast food on the way and have the same meal (at only slightly more cost) in 5 minutes. I typically spend more than an hour in the kitchen cooking every day, and then there is half an hour clean up after my family is done eating. I eat much better and healthier food, but…

Fast food almost always takes longer than that unless you can literally drive through while driving home from work. Also, you're comparing making noodles from scratch to a typical meal. I can do an asian style chicken/veggie/rice meal in < 30 minutes and have the kitchen mostly cleaned by the time the rice is done.

i said on the way for fast food. Since those places are eherywhere it is likely you can find one on the way when you were going and so the time cost to go is zero.

i agree you canecook faster than I normally do - a lot of meals benefit from simmering while the flavors blend.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#468

Post by malfist »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #265
Aurornis wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In my friend circle in Germany I don't even know one single person on this stuff. Most people don’t announce when they’re taking a new medication. GLP-1 drugs are popular in Germany, too. Not quite to the level of some other countries but a quick search shows about 1 in 12 individuals in Germany. Note that the US number quoted above was for households not individuals, so the numbers of households in Germany with at…

>I was wondering how you could get such a high impact overall. But it seems one in 6 households are on GLP-1 drugs in the US. I had the same question and did some back of the envelope math. The data I have seen says the average American eats 400-700 excess daily calories, and 3600 daily calories total. That means 10-20% excess per person. If everyone started eating the right amount overnight, grocery spend would drop…

> the average American eats 400-700 excess daily calories

This can't possibly be true. A caloric surplus of 500cal/day adds a pound of weight per week. That'd mean in a decade of life the _average_ American would add an additional 260 pounds. In 4 decades Americans would add half a ton to their waistline, on average.

That'd mean at then end of their life the average American would die weighing over 2 tons

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#469

Post by zahlman »

jasongill wrote: post #155
tzs wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That works out to something like $30-100 a month for most households. A bit disappointing for those hoping the savings on food would pay for the drug at the current drug prices.

The cash-payer (no insurance) price of GLP-1's has fallen by about 70% since I started on them 18 months ago, from around $1100/mo to $350/mo, for brand-name non-compounded (Ozempic, Zepbound, etc). Many people also stretch that 1 month supply to last longer, as well (eg "click counting"). Not to say that it's cheap, but they are no longer the high-priced drugs only for the glitterati that you may be thinking.

> The cash-payer (no insurance) price of GLP-1's has fallen by about 70% since I started on them 18 months ago, from around $1100/mo to $350/mo

My total food bill is still a fraction of that.

Re: Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy

#470

Post by Esophagus4 »

elictronic wrote: post #425
Esophagus4 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my (obviously anecdotal) experience, that’s not who the primary GLP1 user is. It’s the suburban mom (or dad sometimes) who wants help losing a little weight. Instead of being 300lbs like your example, she’s 160lbs and wants to be 140lbs.

6’1” 230 wanting 210 without having a third bike injury for it. 40 doesn’t heal like 20, turn your head wrong and you are in pain for a month. It sucks.

I hear ya. Someone once told me there are 2 things no one can ever prepare you for: having kids and getting older.

I do want to get back into biking though. Haven’t ridden in a long time.

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