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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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461–470 of 476 posts

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Third party observers have observed endless bad behavior from Ukrainian forces. Amnesty International even called them out, in spite of the inevitable blow back it would (and did) receive, for actively locating their military forces in residential areas, launching strikes from civilian areas, turning schools and hospitals into military bases, and more. [1] Ukraine's response was tantamount to saying that rules don't…

> but they have chosen not to I disagree with this premise. There are many examples of Russia striking civilian gatherings or infrastructure. For example their Hroza village strike killed 59. If we're trying to be charitable to Russia, it's possible they knew of some important off-duty officer present in Hroza. But with our limited public info, there were no signs of any valid military targets. Can you name any IDF s…

Exceptions don't define the rule, the rule does. Israeli estimates put the military wing of Hamas at having up to 17,000 members before the war. They've killed people in the hundreds of thousands in Gaza now.

In WW2 partisans would intentionally induce brutal retaliations precisely because they thought it would expose the character of the occupier, garner support for themselves, radicalize the population, and generally further their interests. And they were right. It's paradoxical because those retaliations were intended to enforce control, yet they invariably achieve the exact opposite - a recurring theme throughout history. Again getting back to the point I'm making - the reason to behave good in war is because it's in your own best interest.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#462
post #12

Alternative theory: Part of the operation caused power outages or disrupted some connections, the BGP anomalies were a result of that. The data would make that more likely, because deliberately adding a longer route doesn't achieve much. It's not usually going to get any traffic.

As a follow-up, Cloudflare came to the same conclusion: https://blog.cloudflare.com/bgp-route-leak-venezuela/

> The newsletter suggests “BGP shenanigans” and posits that such a leak could be exploited to collect intelligence useful to government entities. > > While we can’t say with certainty what caused this route leak, our data suggests that its likely cause was more mundane.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CANTV (AS8048) is a correct upstream transit provider for Dayco (AS21980) as seen in both https://radar.cloudflare.com/routing/as21980#connectivity and https://bgp.tools/as/21980#upstreams What most likely happened, instead of a purposeful attempt to leak routes and MITM traffic, is CANTV had too loose of a routing export policy facing their upstream AS52320 neighbor, and accidentally redistributed the Dayco prefixes…

A closer look at the leak: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46518731

The "closer" look is more blurry than the one presented here though.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. More specifically I would say international law is law in name only. It's not really law at all. It's akin to a child asserting rules on a playground with their peers. There is no enforcement mechanism. In reality what we call international law is more like a mutually agreed upon policy, which can also just not be agreed upon at any moment. In fact many countries do not agree to them. There is no government agen…

It’s complicated. While it’s true that there is no direct enforcement, systems of sanctions and embargos have been used to indirectly enforce these agreements. Whether this is ultimately effective is not obvious, but I think “international law does not exist” is a simplistic take, with all due respect for your opinion (which I understand and partially share)

>While it’s true that there is no direct enforcement, systems of sanctions and embargos have been used to indirectly enforce these agreements.

Right. These are states organizing to assert their power in their interests. It's not mandated and enforced from some over-arching entity.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did I characterize it as a treat or fine? I said Russia dropping a nuke on a Ukranian military site will not escalate into a nuclear war. I say this because so many people assume that it would and it makes no sense.

Ukraine might have some possible retaliatory options in that case though. Far from ideal, but they could for example load a big ship full of explosives and blow up much of St Petersburg. Of course, other options such as biological weapons have been explored in the past. Ukraine wouldn't necessarily have to invest all that much to prepare retaliatory operations capable of killing millions of Russians in the case of a…

Sure. That proves my point though - no nuclear response.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s complicated. While it’s true that there is no direct enforcement, systems of sanctions and embargos have been used to indirectly enforce these agreements. Whether this is ultimately effective is not obvious, but I think “international law does not exist” is a simplistic take, with all due respect for your opinion (which I understand and partially share)

>While it’s true that there is no direct enforcement, systems of sanctions and embargos have been used to indirectly enforce these agreements. Right. These are states organizing to assert their power in their interests. It's not mandated and enforced from some over-arching entity.

I would disagree, but I admit I am ignorant on the matter, so maybe you can explain to me how that's wrong.

My opinion, with all the caveats that come with an opinion, is that states do organise into over-arching organisations in the context of international laws, such as EU, UN, etc.

Such over-arching organisations do not have the same degree of power that a state has over its citizens, sure, but I think it still qualifies. You can theoretically also "disregard" state law, regional law, etc. The problem with that is that the power disparity is such that you can't hope to get away with it (in a perfect world and in a vacuum, that is, as many people do disregard national law and get away with it :D But thats beside the point, I think you'd agree?)

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but they have chosen not to I disagree with this premise. There are many examples of Russia striking civilian gatherings or infrastructure. For example their Hroza village strike killed 59. If we're trying to be charitable to Russia, it's possible they knew of some important off-duty officer present in Hroza. But with our limited public info, there were no signs of any valid military targets. Can you name any IDF s…

Exceptions don't define the rule, the rule does. Israeli estimates put the military wing of Hamas at having up to 17,000 members before the war. They've killed people in the hundreds of thousands in Gaza now. In WW2 partisans would intentionally induce brutal retaliations precisely because they thought it would expose the character of the occupier, garner support for themselves, radicalize the population, and general…

> Israeli estimates put the military wing of Hamas at having up to 17,000

Where did you see that estimate? Some estimates were ~40k, with many more recruits added during the war. And not everyone attacking the IDF was Hamas-affiliated. PIJ alone had thousands of fighters, and as we saw on Oct 7, sometimes random Gazans join in on fighting too.

> They've killed people in the hundreds of thousands in Gaza now.

Hamas themselves claim ~70k, which already includes fighters and non-combat deaths. There are a lot of questionable works trying to embellish the numbers. One of them used garbage data like WhatsApp chats. Another ended up with an estimate of 380k deaths for age 0-5, which is impossible since there were never that many in Gaza.

It's interesting to compare to Ukraine, because we don't see the same desperate attempts to embellish numbers there. Zelenskyy said "tens of thousands" were killed in Mariupol, which is one significant digit; he didn't pretend to have more precision than that. He didn't send out a Google form so that they could claim a specific (but dubious) count. We didn't see a bunch of Western academics desperately trying to justify higher death counts.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#468
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes you do. I explained it multiple times already. If you don't, I suggest you pay more attention instead of replying to comments you admit you don't understand. Ok. I don't understand I guess. Whatever :) > You claimed you didn't care about my opinion, yet here you are. Why? Sport? I'm here for a broader audience to read. Do you care about my opinion? > Thanks for the straight answer. However, the person I was rep…

> Ok. I don't understand I guess. Whatever :) Well, better read more closely then before replying :) > I'm here for a broader audience to read. Do you care about my opinion? If I didn't care about your opinion, I wouldn't answer -- I'm using human logic, not ET-logic. > But I was replying and rejecting the calculation because the calculation doesn't matter, at least in my opinion. Understood. Unfortunately, you got c…

> Well, better read more closely then before replying :)

Nope. I prefer to read not so close and just reply anyway.

> Understood. Unfortunately, you got confused about who you were replying to; it wasn't me who argued the calculation mattered. I actually argued the calculation was a retroactive justification, not the actual one. I can see you got lost here. Maybe for the benefit of, you know, your "broader audience" you could have replied to that other commenter.

I'm saying that it doesn't need to be retroactively justified, and even if the numbers are high or low it doesn't matter. The action was justified until Japan formally surrendered and ended the war. What you're trying to debate it seems to me is around agreements or disagreements about the justification of using the bomb, my criteria is that we were still at war with Japan, and so the justifications, either accurate at the time or retroactive, are irrelevant. It's possible that what you are suggesting around the number of lives saved was a revision, which I don't agree or disagree with, but you are later implying a moral failure because of that revision, and I am rejecting that there was ever a moral failure by using the bomb provided we were still formally at war.

If you want to reject a moral claim about the revision of the justification, I don't really have much to debate here. Whatever the facts are, are the facts. But if you are making a moral claim about the usage of the bomb, that's different.

> This thing you're doing is really bizarre, claiming to know my thoughts. I find it fascinating. Do you always debate like this?

I debate and discuss things depending on various contexts.

In this context you're engaging in a group of common debate tactics (for example, you're afraid to say what country you are from, yet you're happy to speak English and criticize the United States and only the United States) that are a well-known pattern of anti-American and anti-Western sentiment. I just noted the patterns and identified your discussion points as being among them.

For example, let's change the subject and talk about the evils of the Soviet Union. And no we don't have to stay on topic, nobody is reading our nonsense anyway.

I know you won't do that though, because you don't know much about Soviet atrocities, and you won't be able to engage in a strict criticism of Soviet actions unless you introduce nuance (excuses) and find ways to make Soviet atrocities the fault of western countries.

If that's not true, prove me wrong. Let's spend some time now talking about the awful things the Soviets did.

> Nope. I was explaining the nuances of a situation which had more angles than what you implied. You were asking me to read on Molotov-Ribbentrop, yet you don't seem much well read on the subject if you ignore these nuances...

> Both matter: broader actions and nuance. Being aghast at someone who claims 40 million people deserved to die has nothing to do with Molotov-Ribbentrop or any pact. Again... I'm aghast but not in defense of the Soviets, just at your callousness.

Actions matter more than nuance, the nuance is just an excuse to justify the actions of the side you want to support. It sucks that so many Soviet Union, uh, members I guess? I'm not sure how to best describe that hellish autocratic government, but at the end of the day the Soviet Union colluded with the Nazis, and so I'm not really shedding a tear for them losing soldiers or civilians fighting the same maniacs they colluded with.

> Ok, this is a straightforward, honest position. You think dropping the Bomb was ok because it won the war. Also you make some non sequitur about the Bomb turning Japan into a peaceful democracy (completely bizarre logic, it doesn't follow that it was the bomb).

Well I said we bombed Japan, not necessarily it was because of the atomic bomb. But I acknowledge of course that specific context could be interpreted differently than my intention.

I'm suggesting that dropping the bomb, or any other action was just another action that our civilized country took and the end result was that we took over influence of Japan and civilized it and made it a peaceful democracy.

(besides obvious stuff like just raping people or whatever)

> You've repeatedly ignored arguments by me, and others here, that argued that it wasn't necessarily the Bomb that won the war, but whatever. I understand this is your position; I think it's wrong.

I think it's very much up for debate whether the bomb was actually what got the Japanese to surrender. It's possible and debatable that we could have just continued to bomb Japan without the atomic bomb and we would have seen a surrender anyway.

But it is not up for debate that the Japanese military were very much divided on whether or not to continue to hold out against the United States up until the usage of the atomic bomb and some were still holding out (if my memory serves correctly) even after the reports of the first bomb. You're suggesting that I'm ignoring your arguments, but I'm not, I'm disagreeing with them.

> Do you understand the expression "let's take for granted"? It seems you're hell-bent on arguing where there's no argument.

The specific language used matters. When you introduce the term "let's take for granted" you are implying that there is another option to be considered, such as that the Japanese weren't rampaging, murdering lunatics at the time. It's not an assumption to be taken for granted that the Japanese were as I described, it's simply a fact.

Another way to look at it is you can replace "let's take for granted" with "let's suppose" or "let's pretend". That term or variation of those terms, in my view, aren't valid to be used here because we don't suppose that the Japanese were rampaging murderous lunatics from around 1938, they were as a matter of fact.

> My opinion doesn't change because you don't like it either. But, I posit, by sounding jingoistic you're not doing yourself any favors.

I'll posit by sounding anti-western and anti-American you're not doing yourself any favors.

> Why does it matter?

Why are you afraid to say where you're from?

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#469
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ok. I don't understand I guess. Whatever :) Well, better read more closely then before replying :) > I'm here for a broader audience to read. Do you care about my opinion? If I didn't care about your opinion, I wouldn't answer -- I'm using human logic, not ET-logic. > But I was replying and rejecting the calculation because the calculation doesn't matter, at least in my opinion. Understood. Unfortunately, you got c…

> Well, better read more closely then before replying :) Nope. I prefer to read not so close and just reply anyway. > Understood. Unfortunately, you got confused about who you were replying to; it wasn't me who argued the calculation mattered. I actually argued the calculation was a retroactive justification, not the actual one. I can see you got lost here. Maybe for the benefit of, you know, your "broader audience"…

> Nope. I prefer to read not so close and just reply anyway.

It shows. Maybe you should read closer so as to debate the actual statements and not something you imagined.

I had typed a longer answer but then realized it's pointless. You seem intent on setting some kind of trap or gotcha, which is pointless. It's also against the HN guidelines, but you already know this.

You've already decided I fit a "common pattern" and that I'm anti-American and anti-Western (that's hilarious, I was born and live in Trump's very own Western hemisphere. Plus good luck arguing that anti nuclear weapons Americans are anti-American), so stay with that opinion. I have nothing to gain by telling a bad faith troll my country, and you haven't justified why you need this information.

I hope you can overcome your anger.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Putin didn't want NATO getting involved if he started a war there's one special trick he could have played! He could have not started a war ... The only reason Ukraine joining NATO is a problem is if Putin/Russia (or someone else) wants to attack them. I know there's a real risk of peaceful trade, mutual alliance, humanity, and democracy from breaking out in such circumstances but somehow I think the risk might be…

> The only reason Ukraine joining NATO is a problem is if Putin/Russia (or someone else) wants to attack them. I mean, that's objectively not true since Libya, who attacked no one, but had a NATO bombing campaign to assist their civil war. NATO is no longer a purely defensive pact.

Who joined NATO that you're blaming the Libya military interventions on?

If your inference is true then Ukraine's membership would be entirely orthogonal to any intervention NATO took to prevent Putin from committing genocide against his own people.

If NATO would come to Ukraine's aid anyway, then again their membership doesn't matter.

All NATO membership adds is a promise of defence.

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