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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#461

Post by palmotea »

cryptonector wrote: post #447
UncleMeat wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been completely shocked by the number of people in the tech industry who seem to genuinely place no value on humanity and so many of its outputs. I see it in the writing of leaders within VC firms and AI companies but I also see it in ordinary conversations on the caltrain or in coffee shops. Friendship, love, sex, art, even faith and childrearing are opportunities for substitution with AI. Ask an AI to create…

> I have been completely shocked by the number of people in the tech industry who seem to genuinely place no value on humanity [...] Who do they think will make their ventures profitable? Who do they think will take their dollars and provide goods and services in exchange? If automation reaches the point where 99% of humans add no value to the "owners" then the "owners" will own nothing.

> If automation reaches the point where 99% of humans add no value to the "owners" then the "owners" will own nothing.

I don't think that's right. The owners will still own everything. If or when that happens, I think the economy would morph into a new thing completely focused on serving the whims of those "owners."

There's an old Isaac Asimov book with something similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_universe#Solaria (though accomplished more peacefully and with less pain than I think is realistic).

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#462

Post by tim333 »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

You can kind of separate the technical side of what will likely happen - AI get smarter and can do the jobs - with how we deal with that. Could be heaven like with abundance and no one needs to work, or post apocalyptic dystopia or likely somewhere in the middle.

We collectively have a lot of choice on the how we deal with it part. I'm personally optimistic that people will vote in people friendly policies when it comes to it.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#463

Post by palmotea »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

> And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather from perspective of some kind of economic determinism? Have you ever thought that you would be compared to a gasoline engine and everyone would discuss this juxtaposition from purely economic perspective?

One of the many terrible things about software engineers their the tendency to think and speak as if they were some kind of aloof galaxy-brain, passively observing humanity from afar. I think that's at least partially the result of 1) identifying as an "intelligent person" and 2) computers and the internet allowing them to in-large-part become disconnected from the rest of humanity. I think they see that aloofness as being a "more intelligent" way to engage with the world, so they do it to act out their "intelligence."

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#464

Post by hnfong »

tim333 wrote: post #462
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

You can kind of separate the technical side of what will likely happen - AI get smarter and can do the jobs - with how we deal with that. Could be heaven like with abundance and no one needs to work, or post apocalyptic dystopia or likely somewhere in the middle. We collectively have a lot of choice on the how we deal with it part. I'm personally optimistic that people will vote in people friendly policies when it co…

Not seeing any horse heavens, do you have reason to believe humans (i.e. those not among the ruling class) are going to have a different fate from the horses?

I agree we can kinda make the argument that abundance is soon upon us, and humanity as a whole embraces the ideas of equality and harmony etc etc... but still there's a kinda uncanny dissociation if you're happily talking about horses disappearing and humans being next while you work on the product that directly causes your prediction to come true and happen earlier...

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#465

Post by gota »

glenstein wrote: post #432
pas wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

population projections they already predict that prosperity reduces population and even if AI becomes good enough to replace most humans the economic surplus does not disappear it's a coordination problem in many places on Earth social safety nets are pretty robust, and if AI helps to reduce cost of providing basic services then it won't be a problem to expand those safety nets ... there's already a pretty serious an…

I think the concerns with UBI are (1) it takes away the leverage of a labor force to organize and strike for better benefits or economic conditions, and (2) following the block grant model, can be a trojan horse "benefit" that sets the stage for effectively deleting systems of welfare support that have been historically resilient due to institutional support and being strongly identified with specific constituencies.…

Point (2) seems wrong intuitively. "Chopping" away UBI would be much more difficult _because_ it is not associated to a specific constituency.

Not only would there be more people on the streets protesting against real or perceived cuts;

there also would be fewer movements based on exclusivist ideologies protesting _in favour of cuts_*

* e.g. racist groups in favour of cutting some kinds of welfare because of racial associations

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#466

Post by KitN »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

isn't this literally swift's laputa?

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#467

Post by hnfong »

Herring wrote: post #441
techdmn wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the phrase "fair distribution on social level" is doing a lot of work in this comment. Do you consider this to be a common occurrence, or something our existing social structures do competently? I see quite the opposite, and have very little hope that reduced reliance on labor will increase the equability of distribution of wealth.

It probably depends on the society you start out with, eg a high trust culture like Finland will probably fare better here.

Doesn't matter. The countries with most chaos and internal strife gets a lot of practice fighting wars (civil war). Then the winner of the civil war, who's used to grabbing resources by force, and the one that has perfected war skills due to survival of the fittest, goes round looking for other countries to invade.

Historically, advanced civilizations with better production capabilities don't necessarily do better in war if they lack "practice". Sad but true. Maybe not in 21st century, but who knows.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#468

Post by hnfong »

pbw wrote: post #56

This is food for thought, but horses were a commodity; people are very much not interchangeable with each other. The BLS tracks ~1,000 different occupations. Each will fall to AI at a slightly different rate, and within each, there will be variations as well. But this doesn't mean it won't still subjectively happen "fast".

Whether people are interchangeable with each other isn't the point. The point is whether AI is interchangeable with jobs currently done by humans. Unless and until AI training requires 1000 different domain experts, the current projection is that at some point AI will be interchangeable with all kinds of humans...

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#469

Post by [deleted] »

hnfong wrote: post #467
Herring wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It probably depends on the society you start out with, eg a high trust culture like Finland will probably fare better here.

Doesn't matter. The countries with most chaos and internal strife gets a lot of practice fighting wars (civil war). Then the winner of the civil war, who's used to grabbing resources by force, and the one that has perfected war skills due to survival of the fittest, goes round looking for other countries to invade. Historically, advanced civilizations with better production capabilities don't necessarily do better in…

[deleted]

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#470

Post by throw-the-towel »

vidarh wrote: post #457
tokioyoyo wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want another side data point, most people I know both in Japan and Canada use some sort of an AI as a replacement for any kind of query. Almost nobody in my circles are in tech or tech-adjacent circles. So yeah, it’s just everyone collectively devaluing human interaction.

I love AI, but I'm exasperated by the extent to which my fiancee uses Claude instead of search, and for everything ...

With what Google has become, I can't blame her.
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