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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#461

Post by cman1444 »

pnexk wrote: post #361
captainregex wrote: post #82

if anyone else is curious, beyond all the political football stuff happening with the bureau of labor stats, Odd Lots did a good episode recently on the challenges with monthly jobs reports

Would also recommend the Moody's Talks podcast led by Mark Zandi, the Moody's Analytics chief economist. He's been more or less talking about this for months now and sounded the alarm much earlier than others about this prospect.

I second this. Probably my favorite podcast right now. Interestingly, I admire Mark's guts to make somewhat bold calls early, but I trust the co-hosts' (Marissa, Chris, and Dante) takes a bit more for some reason.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#462

Post by jshen »

cman1444 wrote: post #459
jshen wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Debt cycles would be one. https://youtu.be/SoKr0QVCLPA?si=kKcXNetb-kAPr1S8

I don't the current economy is "entirely" the result of bad policy, but I do think it is the primary contributor. I read/listen to a lot of economic commentators as an interest of mine, and there is pretty broad agreement that tariffs are the main cause of inflation failing to tick down to target this year. There also seems to be consensus that the manufacturing sector has been harmed by tariffs and immigration polic…

Yes, no major disagreement here. You can also point to the Us debt/deficit as another major storm cloud on the horizon. Trump is the worst offender on that, but far from the only one.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#463

Post by triceratops »

chrisco255 wrote: post #354
yepitwas wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of current conservative grousing about the deficit is priming the electorate for destroying social security. That's why they always highlight it as the main cause of the deficit, even though it has a totally separate income stream from the rest of the budget. Republicans have done the exact opposite of balancing the budget at least since Reagan (inclusive) non-stop, zero R presidents have even done as well as d…

No party's platform is based on ending or destroying social security, especially not the GOP who gets a broad base of support from retirees. That being said, I've never had much faith in it being around for myself, though I'm 30 years from eligibility). It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable in spite of overwhelming boomer population to support. The f…

> It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable

Social Security is funded entirely by payroll tax deductions and invested only in treasury bonds. Bonds which have had very low yields in this century. Guess what you collect less of as automation and AI ramp up? Payroll taxes.

EDIT: I saw your comment here. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45191291 Sounds like we agree.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#464

Post by triceratops »

yepitwas wrote: post #434
chrisco255 wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No party's platform is based on ending or destroying social security, especially not the GOP who gets a broad base of support from retirees. That being said, I've never had much faith in it being around for myself, though I'm 30 years from eligibility). It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable in spite of overwhelming boomer population to support. The f…

Republicans, including some of the current crop, have been making noise about putting the money in the stock market, one way or another, for a long time, and if anyone’s gonna actually do it it’s these guys.

Not the worst idea in the world. It's better if returns from capital fund retirements rather than taxes on labor.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#465

Post by greycol »

flerchin wrote: post #321
ta1243 wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather owe 100k over 30 years at 15% than 300k at 4%.

You do you, but at the end of the 30 years the latter person is ahead by quite a bit.

They really aren't. To pay off a 30yr 300k at 4% you pay $17350 a year. If you pay $17350 on a 100k 16% mortgage you pay it off in under 18 years and have saving of 222k (even at 0% returns) + 100k house by the time 30yrs is up.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#466

Post by stogot »

eunos wrote: post #427
npalli wrote: post #225

Not to be a Doomer but the last time I recall a revision around this magnitude was during the GFC[1]. Summary of the benchmark revisions The March 2009 benchmark level for total nonfarm employment is 131,175,000; this figure is 902,000 below the sample-based estimate for March 2009, an adjustment of -0.7 percent. Table 1 shows the total nonfarm percentage benchmark revisions for the past ten years. https://www.bls.go…

Another GFC during a "cold war" with China and Russia? Great, just great.

China is waiting for the opportunity to invade Taiwan and that opportunkty is when the US is economically, politically weak and divided

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#467

Post by janalsncm »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #414
CursedSilicon wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the saying goes. You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet

I want you to think about, for a minute, the notion that you can have a number bigger than all of the atoms in the universe :-). From that, you can see that its possible to have more 'dollars' than there are atoms in the universe. Specifically, without defining 'growth' you can't reason about the limits on that growth. The other point that simplified analysis fails to consider is that you are inside the system so as…

> its possible to have more 'dollars' than there are atoms in the universe

We are absolutely not printing money fast enough to realize this dream, unfortunately. I propose we mint a new bill, the 100 trillion non-Zimbabwe dollar, and 10x our printing speed.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#468

Post by janalsncm »

CursedSilicon wrote: post #307
nradov wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? There is no practical limit to human innovation and productivity growth.

As the saying goes. You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet

If I sell you a banana for $1, and you sell it back to me for $1, we have just created $2 of GDP. The trick is we need to repeat this process faster and faster over time. Luckily computers also get faster every year due to Moore’s law, so growth shouldn’t be an issue.

In fact, every person in the country could take turns with the banana for a brief period of time (provided they quickly sell it to the next person) which should enable broad prosperity for all.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#469

Post by mek6800d2 »

yepitwas wrote: post #434
chrisco255 wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No party's platform is based on ending or destroying social security, especially not the GOP who gets a broad base of support from retirees. That being said, I've never had much faith in it being around for myself, though I'm 30 years from eligibility). It's possible that productivity boosts from automation and AI could overtime make SS actually sustainable in spite of overwhelming boomer population to support. The f…

Republicans, including some of the current crop, have been making noise about putting the money in the stock market, one way or another, for a long time, and if anyone’s gonna actually do it it’s these guys.

A reminder to everyone: Social Security is NOT a retirement plan, it is an insurance plan. When your 401(k) is cratered by the stock market or your pension goes the way of Enron, SS is supposed to be there to hopefully keep you from being dumped in the gutter. Tying SS to the stock market would not be a smart move.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#470

Post by AlecSchueler »

nradov wrote: post #402
CursedSilicon wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the saying goes. You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet

Come on, don't be pedantic. We are so far from hitting any limits on growth imposed by a finite planet as to be effectively unlimited.

The climate is just about holding together because of our growth rate to date.
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