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US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

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Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator. At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.

Yep. Nukes for Taiwan is the only solution. Nuclear proliferation and subsequent war is inevitable imo.

North Korea doesnt have nukes pointed at South Korea, they’re family. Likewise, Taiwan would never nuke China even if invaded.

China is being smart, it is modernising and growing amazingly fast, and Taiwan will be foolish not return to China peacefully in our lifetime.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#462
post #3

I'm kinda of shocked that chip & many tech companies play ball.. They are a required / no alternatives industry by so much of the USA, with limited alternatives. Is it really more cost-effective for each of these companies to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to avoid tariffs when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives?

Honestly, this is a win-win for TSMC. Intel isn't dead. They've made some bad choices and investments but they're still huge. They have $30 billion in gross profit per year on an utterly boring, non-hype based business model. Get rid of some dead weight, write off the bad investments, improve their foundry business and their value easily grows multiples of what it currently is. On top of it already being a shrewd bus…

> Honestly, this is a win-win for TSMC.

Not sure about that. Buying Intel would make TSMC a direct competitor to most of its biggest customers which could incentivize said customers to look for alternative foundry.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#463
post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EUV was developed with in a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between the US Department of Energy, Intel, ASML, and so on - giving Congress control over who ASML sells the EUV technology to. So yes, US companies do have a choice. They can lobby Congress to cut off TSMC from their main hardware and parts supplier entirely, crippling it altogether, except for their Arizona plant which is ripe for nationali…

It’s not as simple as just buying an ASML machine and make chips. Otherwise Intel would have already done that. For the cutting edge stuff TSMC is a monopoly.

TSMC certainly brings a lot to the table but if they were completely knocked out, it would just deprive the world of the top end of fab capacity for a while. On the other hand almost every fab in the world depends on ASML for parts and maintenance, even the old fabs on legacy nodes.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same 18A that their CEO is axing? https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/intels-new-...

That's 14A, not 18A, and it's not being axed, but questioned in what appears to be a game of chicken.

Sounds like they are axing 18A for external customers, which is what Intel needs to be an alternative to TSMC:

>Tan's overall strategy for Intel remains nascent...Shifting away from selling 18A to foundry customers would represent one of his biggest moves yet.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#465
post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Sorry, how do they 'make sense'? What's the problem with a trade deficit with Bangladesh? And in your example, you'd just shift bilateral trade balances around, without impact the overall trade balance of the US? I could perhaps believ…

>Sorry, how do they 'make sense'? To the same extent that other forms of taxation make sense. I wish people had this same sudden interest in protecting the free market and maximizing trade when we're taking about income tax or sales tax or property tax, etc.

> I wish people had this same sudden interest in protecting the free market and maximizing trade when we're taking about income tax or sales tax or property tax, etc.

But people do have these interests!

Different taxes distort markets differently. Tariffs are one of the worst ways to tax. Similarly transaction taxes, like a Tobin tax or stamp duty, are bad.

Income tax ain't great, but it's ok. (Details depend on implementation.) Property tax is one of the best taxes, only beaten out by land value taxes. VAT is ok.

And, btw, a tariff designed to raise revenue is very different from a tariff designed to change the balance of payments.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#466
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most information hostile environments in human history Is it though? East Germany comes to mind as well as the rest of the Cold War countries behind the Iron Curtain. China seems to be pretty hostile as well. In the US, it is still much easier to find real information that counters the propaganda than it is in any of those other countries. There's no Great Firewall to bypass. You don't even need to do anything anon…

What you're describing is an Orwellian dystopia, where a boot forces you to think a certain way. We live in a Huxleyan dystopia where there is so much so much to distract you that you become submissive.

This would be nice, however we get both the boot AND the flood of information.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#467
post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Sorry, how do they 'make sense'? What's the problem with a trade deficit with Bangladesh? And in your example, you'd just shift bilateral trade balances around, without impact the overall trade balance of the US? I could perhaps believ…

Because of the Triffin dilemma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma Trade deficits in isolation aren't good or bad but because the US has the world reserve currency it must supply it's currency to the world. This basically forces it to have a trade deficit with everyone which over time can hollow out manufacturing sectors. Making the whole economy vulnerable to shocks and ultimately causing it to fail. It's…

Huh? The US gets to print money for free. They don't even need to have printer's ink any more, since it's all entries in a database these days. And in return they get real stuff from overseas.

And you want to tell me that this is somehow unfair for the US?

The US can print an arbitrary amount of dollars, if there's demand for them in the rest of the world.

Btw, focussing on dollars is actually a bit narrow. When Americans sell stocks or bonds to the rest of the world, that's also part of the trade deficit. So Americans aren't just exporting dollars, they are also exporting stocks and bonds and options and futures. Financial engineering is one of great American manufacturing industries.

Interestingly enough, despite exporting so many financial products (= 'trade deficit'), Americans as a whole still make more money from their foreign investments abroad that foreigners make on their American investments. To simplify a bit too much: foreigners buy low yielding American government debt, while Americans make savvy investments abroad.

> It's not sustainable without careful policy management, and attempts to weaken the currency via tariffs, devaluation, or some other mechanism.

Oh, magical tariffs! They can strengthen or weaken your currency, just as the plot demands. They also prevent hollowing out of industry, and cure toothache.

If you want to weaken your currency, just print more of it. It's much simpler.

> You might not like Trump or his approach but he is directionally correct and does have a powerful bargaining chip (access to the US market - which is basically on track to be the only 1st world consumer driven economy 5 years from now).

What does 'consumer driven economy' even mean? Could you make your prediction more concrete. Perhaps we can even have a little bet.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of the Triffin dilemma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma Trade deficits in isolation aren't good or bad but because the US has the world reserve currency it must supply it's currency to the world. This basically forces it to have a trade deficit with everyone which over time can hollow out manufacturing sectors. Making the whole economy vulnerable to shocks and ultimately causing it to fail. It's…

On what sort of basis do you make the claim that the US is on track to be the only 1st world consumer driven economy 5 years from now? What do you mean by a 1st world consumer driven economy, as opposed to what exactly? I do agree that having tariffs on certain items to encourage domestic production definitely does work. The tariffs have to be consistent and on things that can actually be produced in the country. The…

> I do agree that having tariffs on certain items to encourage domestic production definitely does work. The tariffs have to be consistent and on things that can actually be produced in the country.

Compare and contrast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrial...

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#469
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so the logical conclusion is that American consumers will end up paying the tariffs. That’s been the point all along… they are significantly raising taxes on the bottom 90% of Americans and most are too stupid to even understand it. Gotta pay for those tax cuts for the wealthy somehow.

It has nothing to do with stupidity. Stop painting people as idiots because they exist in one of the most information hostile environments in human history. This isn't some natural state that's unrecoverable. The people you describe have been given a highly addictive media environment tailor made to engender outrage and drive behavior. It shouldn't be a shock when most people cannot resist it. The first step to chang…

This is bullshit. It would be partly valid if it were just about "information hostility" but its not. People are making choices not just due to ignorance or misinformation, but based actively on spite, hatred and "fuck you got mine". People are deciding not to necessarily better their own situation but to harm others. It is selfish, myopic and yes, utterly fucking stupid.

Normalising this way of behaving means that yes, if you're in the group that benefits from today's decision you're ok, but nothing stops you from being in the out-group tomorrow. And if your goal is inflicting harm, well tomorrow that harm will be inflicted upon you.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#470
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so the logical conclusion is that American consumers will end up paying the tariffs. That’s been the point all along… they are significantly raising taxes on the bottom 90% of Americans and most are too stupid to even understand it. Gotta pay for those tax cuts for the wealthy somehow.

It has nothing to do with stupidity. Stop painting people as idiots because they exist in one of the most information hostile environments in human history. This isn't some natural state that's unrecoverable. The people you describe have been given a highly addictive media environment tailor made to engender outrage and drive behavior. It shouldn't be a shock when most people cannot resist it. The first step to chang…

Perhaps, but the problem is that Americans really love their propaganda environment. The anger makes them feel alive. In some ways it's worse than the USSR, where everyone knew the propaganda was dull bullshit and all the interesting artistic work was in trying to subvert that.
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