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Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

newyorker.com

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Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#461

Post by analyte123 »

ErigmolCt wrote: post #132

While the US is busy trying to revive the oil-soaked 20th century, places like Namibia are leapfrogging straight into a distributed, solar-powered future with YouTube tutorials... It's like watching the fossil era get out-hustled in real time.

I sincerely doubt the Namibian government is giving out thousands of dollars per household in solar subsidies, like the US does up until the end of this year. I doubt Pakistan does either, another country noted in the article where solar usage is expanding. If solar is a mature technology and an economic inevitability as contended in the article (I agree), there is a much weaker case for subsidizing it. In any case, most solar installation costs in the US seem to go to permits and expensive, inefficient contractors - endemic problems which affect all types of development and are probably only made worse by throwing free money at them.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#462

Post by SoftTalker »

idiotsecant wrote: post #335
Mengkudulangsat wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not feel as optimistic about any uptick in cables as I do about solar and wind. Solar and wind can grow through a multitude of small, plug-and-play projects. Cable projects like HDVC are still giant, long-term punts.

This is literally the problem. Transmission is desperately needed, much more than generation right now. The issue is that it's hard to explain to people why this is, and even when they understand they react like you do. RENEWABLES NEED TRANSMISSION!!! We need to be building unprecedented Manhattan project levels of transmission, yesterday! But instead we will put some solar panels on a car park and feel like we did o…

And I'd still much rather pay a utility every month for electricity (and have them be responsible for maintaining and upgrading the infrastructure) than install and maintain my own solar plant on my roof, for the same reasons that I'd rather pay utilities to provide me with water and sewer service than have my own well and septic system.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#463

Post by hoerensagen »

ambientenv wrote: post #112

I just can't get that exuberant when I also read things like this [1]. [1] - https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-tale-of-two-ene...

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but the Author seems to think that the main conversion losses in electricity generation come from renewables

Edit:

I think this paragraph should be enough to show that it is not advisable to trust the author on anything to do with energy:

>Due to the weight of all this stuff, and the relatively mild heat and scattered light coming from the Sun, solar panels produce no more than 20 Watts for each kg of their mass, even on a sunny day. Meanwhile wind turbines, with their massive concrete bases and tall steel towers, generate a mere 6 Watts for every kg of their weight. (Batteries fare slightly better at 240 W/kg.) For comparison diesel fuel produces 13,000 Watts for every kg of fuel burned. A regular diesel engine weighing 150 kg can thus easily produce 110 kW of power, while the same feat would require 5.5 tons of solar panels directly lit by the Sun at noon.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#464

Post by marze »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #175

The article doesn't mention a technology that deserves some attention because it counters the biggest and most obvious deficiency in solar: the sun doesn't always shine. That technology is cables. Cables allow us to move energy over long distances. And with HVCD cables that can mean across continents, oceans, time zones, and climate regions. The nice things about cables is that they are currently being underutilized.…

Transmission lines are a interesting idea, but expensive.

Once solar is cheap (like now, as it already is), you can put in 3x what is needed on a sunny day, and power everything on cloudy days. Solar runs on cloudy days. Night obviously requires a different solution. Start by installing solar over all parking lots.

To think that you won't be able to run a 100% solar/wind grid is a bet against human ingenuity. If generation in excess of peak demand was installed of solar/wind, there are many promising approaches to deal with generation shortfalls. Batteries, load shifting, an electric vehicle fleet that charges during the day and powers the grid at night if the owner opts in, precooling a home with AC during the day to a low set point so AC isn't needed at night, H2 storage in salt caverns, pumped hydro, aluminum smelters that operate during excess power periods, the possibilities are infinite.

It won't be hard. Don't bet against human ingenuity.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#465

Post by abakker »

marze wrote: post #464
jillesvangurp wrote: post #175

The article doesn't mention a technology that deserves some attention because it counters the biggest and most obvious deficiency in solar: the sun doesn't always shine. That technology is cables. Cables allow us to move energy over long distances. And with HVCD cables that can mean across continents, oceans, time zones, and climate regions. The nice things about cables is that they are currently being underutilized.…

Transmission lines are a interesting idea, but expensive. Once solar is cheap (like now, as it already is), you can put in 3x what is needed on a sunny day, and power everything on cloudy days. Solar runs on cloudy days. Night obviously requires a different solution. Start by installing solar over all parking lots. To think that you won't be able to run a 100% solar/wind grid is a bet against human ingenuity. If gene…

Solar over parking lots is so good. it creates power, shade, and reduces reflected heat.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#466

Post by derektank »

pshirshov wrote: post #442
derektank wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sarcasm seems unwarranted. The US has better air quality than any other country with over 50 million people and better air quality than the EU on average. Most of the countries above America on the list are either islands directly in the path of tradewinds, largely unpopulated, or the nordics. Now, a lot of this is simply the fact that Americans haven't embraced diesel and that America is a relatively low density…

> The US has better air quality than any other country with over 50 million people and better air quality than the EU on average And that remarkable achievement was only possible because the US does not produce evil solar panels on its soil, do I understand you right?

No? I didn't make the parent comment and I was mostly taking issue with the implication in your comment that US air quality was in some way deficient

But since you asked, while manufacturing solar panels does not itself pose a threat to air quality, environmental and air quality regulations obviously raise the cost of doing business in the manufacturing sector broadly, which makes the US less competitive up and down the supply chain than China. That's obviously not the entire story, but it's certainly part of it.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#467

Post by fred_is_fred »

louwrentius wrote: post #191

In Star Trek The Next Generation, energy is a 'solved problem'. Material needs are also a 'solved problem'. Money doesn't exist anymore. I think at least 70% of the Hacker News crowd would hate this world because they would have no idea what to do with their life under these circumstances. What is life about except turning a profit? How can you have power over other people? Feel important with all your money? Look at…

Okay hear me out - Uber for holodecks.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#468

Post by jes5199 »

papaver-somnamb wrote: post #221

Tony Seba around 10 years ago predicted (among many other things) that ~2024 the cost of generating a unit of electricity onsite with PV will cost less than merely delivering the same unit of electricity over transmission infrastructure, not even considering the cost of generating that unit. Nowadays he is diving into what he terms the phase change disruptions where he explores and thinks out the ramifications of the…

I've been following Seba since around 2020, and it's wild how: 1) he continues to be correct 2) people are still very slow to believe him

his predictions have gotten a LOT more dramatic lately, I can't wait to see if he's still nailing it

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#469

Post by pfdietz »

Retric wrote: post #438
trillic wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

magnesium is the most explody of all those

But still not explosive at scale. It’s a surface area issue, a small strip of magnesium explodes when dropped in water but a 100t cargo of magnesium sinking in a harbor would be a huge fire.

> a small strip of magnesium explodes when dropped in water

No it doesn't.

Magnesium metal burns because the boiling point of magnesium is just 1091 C, so extremely reactive vapor is readily produced. But it would be very hard to heat it that high in water unless it was ignited first. It will then continue to burn under water.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#470

Post by pfdietz »

dgfitz wrote: post #289
kragen wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plausible alternatives to cables include ships full of synthetic diesel, ships full of iron, ships full of aluminum, or ships full of magnesium. Inside China HVDC cables are indeed carrying solar power across the continent, but the Netherlands have not managed to erect any yet. Cables provide efficient JIT power delivery, but they're vulnerable to precision-guided missiles, which Ukrainians are 3-D printing in their…

As long as we all realize you can’t 3D print precision-guided missiles without, well, the guidance bit.

The guidance bit should be quite cheap now though, compared to decades ago. Some combination of MEMS backed up with GPS.
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