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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#461

Post by stafferxrr »

Spooky23 wrote: post #177
jeswin wrote: post #166

I am among the few who think it might eventually prove itself a good idea. To start with, Europe has no good cards to play. Ultimately, Europe will side with the United States while it builds self-sufficiency on several fronts, especially defense. Europe also recognizes that the complete relocation of production capacity into China wasn't good in the long run; it's just that they had no ability to act on their own. T…

I think EU will be fine, it really depends on how much the US cares about advancing Russian interests. Long game, the UK may transform into being a sort of vassal of the US, assuming it survives as an entity. The EU interest may align more with China. If the US is de-empathizing NATO, they need a counterweight to the Russia/US axis. It's the end of pax americana, and the future is more uncertain.

Or this is maximum negative emotionally charged sentiment and 5 years from now won't look all that much different.

It is really that you should just read what Peter Zeihan says and know that is exactly what is not going to happen.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#462

Post by fknorangesite »

add-sub-mul-div wrote: post #216
fells wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because, in reality, they voted for his regressive cultural policies, not his regressive economic policies. Though in November I'm sure they were telling us how good he would be on the economic front.

It's funny, (well, not funny ) because the social issues are the ones where the toothpaste doesn't go back in the bottle. Progress over the long run only goes in the right direction, there's no path to undoing broad acceptance of homosexuality just like we'll never go back to forbidding interracial marriage or women voting. So the top 1% will benefit economically from the right being in power, but the rest will spend…

> Progress over the long run only goes in the right direction, there's no path to undoing broad acceptance of homosexuality just like we'll never go back to forbidding interracial marriage or women voting.

This is remarkably naive. I wish you were right, but this sentiment isn't optimism; it's complacency.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#463

Post by toss1 »

loudmax wrote: post #367
jonplackett wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

The term for this is extortion. The last time tariffs were this high, it led to rampant corruption as companies would pay off customs officers. This was one of the reasons for switching to an income tax. For the current administration this possibility counts as a major opportunity to generate personal wealth. But this isn't the only reason for the policy. For someone who is at heart a coward, bullying and brandishing…

There is also a reason tariffs only get raised on a multi-generational time scale, e.g., 1820s, 1890s, 1930s, 2020s.

The effects are so bad that nearly everyone who remembers the disaster must have died off for anyone to think it is a good idea.

At this point, it is obvious that there is no geo-political or geo-strategic plan of any type. The administration is just winging it, and Sen Murphy's explanation is the only one available.

It was also noted that the person occupying the president's chair said "they must be forced to negotiate". When someone is forced to negotiate, that is not a negotiation, that is extortion. Welcome to another nation run like a mob office.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#464

Post by davesque »

cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

As a thoughtful person, you've got to learn to curb your instinct to make sense out of things like this. It's a waste of calories.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#465

Post by toss1 »

csomar wrote: post #384
standardUser wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is an attempt at blackmail it appears to be failing. It's only been a few days and Trump has already unilaterally capitulated on several major positions. Unless he's blackmailing himself, the 'plan' is backfiring.

There could have been deals/agreements behind the scenes. This is not a republican "first". The democrats did the same to get Facebook and other social media to censor news. Trump is literally playing their book but with his style.

Anyone who can not see the obvious difference in substance, intent, scope, and scale is either willfully ignorant or seriously lacking in reading comprehension and reasoning skills.

Requesting curbs on rampant disinformation is not even close to the same thing as crashing the economy to extort our closest allies and major business and industry players.

Yikes

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#466

Post by jm4 »

miohtama wrote: post #302
jm4 wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s pure stupidity and most people don’t even realize it. Last night I met a couple at a country club where I was a guest - one of those $100k/yr places - and they asked me if my trade partners are charging me more with the tariffs. I told them the U.S. government is charging me more with the tariffs and my trade partners are charging me more because the value of the dollar is down. This was the first time anyone to…

I have seen country clubs only in movies. Do those places really exist and are they as stereotypical as one might expect?

It’s not like Caddyshack. At least not this one. There’s golf, tennis, pools, a restaurant, bars, etc. It’s the kind of place where you will see PGA Tour guys hanging around and a few other high profile people. A lot of people are driving cars that cost more than my house. Everyone is pretty chill, but it’s top 1% kind of people in their natural habitat. It’s like a little bubble detached from reality.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#467

Post by NewJazz »

vbezhenar wrote: post #131
galleywest200 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unsure why anyone would want to change the trade imbalance when you are arguably the richest country on earth. You have a trade imbalance because you are rich and can buy everything you want. Nobody in onshoring manufacturing with this level of instability in the finances of this country at this time. Trump changes his mind too often to build billions of dollars worth of factories.

Trade imbalance causes debt. Debt causes payments. As debt grows, payment grow. Eventually it causes default. It's OK to have trade imbalance for some time. It can't last forever.

Current account deficits cause debt, not trade imbalances. Imports and exports factor in, sure, but they are far from the only determinants.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#468

Post by voisin »

stafferxrr wrote: post #435
voisin wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strategy is to sow fear and uncertainty to drive capital from stocks to government bonds and drive down the bond yield. Bessant is pretty clear about this. Once they get the bond yields down and refinance a lot of the short term debt into longer term debt they free up operating budget. Combine with Elon’s DOGE cutting costs and Lutnick raising some capital from tariffs, and it is a pretty good strategy. I don’t a…

This is exactly the strategy but it is failing miserably. The reason for the pivot was because the 10-30 year yields didn't come down, the price on the 30 year got crushed. The 30 year almost went back to the lows. There was literally no flight to safety. Completely the opposite.

It seems like there was a flight to safety but then China started dumping bonds. I think we are witnessing the ‘war’ in trade war!

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#469

Post by GenerocUsername »

jonplackett wrote: post #60
cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

These companies could choose to invest in the US instead and not have to worry about any of this.

Tariffs are only usable as extortion if the companies have outsourced the manufacturing that gutted our middle-class.

Externalizing variables comes with risk. This risk should be factored into planning in the future. Just because a politician in the 90s promised cheap labor through globalization, a president 30 years later can flip the script

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#470

Post by vel0city »

vFunct wrote: post #84
jonplackett wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

Which didn't really work since what exactly are US tech companies giving Trump in exchange for eliminating tariffs? And are only large corporations expected to play? I import shopping bags from Chinese manufacturers from my store, like millions of other small businesses do. What exactly are we supposed to offer Trump?

Bribes. Obvious bribes. Over and over. How many millions do you spend on your Mar-a-Lago memberships? How many nights do you pay for empty rooms in Trump hotels?

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

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