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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

461–470 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#461
>I know it’s hard to believe now, but Europe used to be the seat of power for the whole world.

And Europe used that power to do some incredibly inhumane and shitty things, while enriching a tiny number of sociopaths. I had hoped we had improved as a species since then, but I don't think we have.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#462

On Lex, you said you want to have Elon as dictator. Dinner is served, enjoy your meal.

The issue with these contrarians, is that all they can do is scream loudly about how shitty everything is, without any real proposals on how to improve the world. We see this all the time: MAGA in the US, AFD in Germany...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#463
post #382
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More to the point, when you write an article like this foretelling the doom of the american economy, why would you think you are able to brain drain any country? What stops the countries you are trying to drain from offering better incentives to stay?

Also consider that the US is now threatening direct (even neighboring) allies with military intervention (Canada, Denmark). It is very hard to drain brain which considers the US an enemy country. Meanwhile, China is playing the long game and is building infrastructure projects all over the world, including the EU [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelje%C5%A1ac_Bridge

>Also consider that the US is now threatening direct (even neighboring) allies with military intervention (Canada, Denmark).

You have a source for this? I haven't heard of any threat of military intervention for Canada and/or Denmark.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#464

> 1) Brain drain the world. Work visas for [...] literally anyone who produces value. So, to put it in terms of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, they want to drain the rest of the world of everybody but hairdressers and marketing experts?

Sorry you think hairdressers don't create value? I find if I don't cut my hair this is very negative for me, and decreases my productivity!!

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn’t worry about this too much. Brain drain, despite the name, is not really a zero-sum game. The people who move rarely lose all contact with the host country. They gain invaluable experience, know-how, and contacts that some of them eventually bring back to the host country. I know of more than one example where someone has been “brain-drained” to the states, who has subsequently moved back to start a success…

> The people who move rarely lose all contact with the host country. They gain invaluable experience, know-how, and contacts that some of them eventually bring back to the host country. How many Europeans who emigrated to the USA in the late 19th and early 20th centuries returned to their countries after making it big in America? Is any of Europe's economic development since then attributable to them?

My families original immigrents had many members return to Europe. My Grandfather went back to the old country after WW2 to try to find the family that stayed behind or returned and there was no trace of them.

Our 20th century immigrant experience was that the old country evaporated and there was no longer a connection.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#466

There's an implicit assumption in the article and the comments here that "brain drain the world" is a free lunch. But does anyone think through to the end-game of that? That when you drain the most smart/productive people away from every other country, all those countries become less wealthy and more dysfunctional, leading to societal decline, poverty, resentment, radicalisation, war, etc? Aside from anything else, t…

> the other countries become less able to trade on good terms, and thus less able to buy US products/services

There is a Kurzgezat video a couple of years back [1] that does understand this. They did the same argument that you are making here. Heck, the prisoners dilemma is about how cooperating is the most viable strategy for global benefits. The world isn't really a zero sum game. We get a tons of energy thanks to our star that is usually the thing that most closed systems desperately look for.

[1]: https://youtu.be/rvskMHn0sqQ

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's geohot Leading with a Curtis Yarvin citation as supporting material

Genuine question: Is George qualified to be making statements concerning economic outlook?

It does say at the bottom of the page "A home for poorly researched ideas". So I don't think even he is very confident in what he is saying. I assume they are just trying to be provocative. Judging by the number of comments here, it worked.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#469

This started out interesting but then the red flags started to pop up. Going to jail in Europe for posting memes, gold standard, salivating over doing something that benefits the US and hurts countries that are already poorer than the US. He has strong opinions on economics, but doesn't understand it. His points about economics are partially true but either subtly incorrect or interpreted incorrectly.

There's this piece of product-management wisdom that I've been thinking about lately, which is that users almost always understand their problems better than you do. If the metrics say things are going well, and your users say everything sucks, your metrics are probably wrong. But the complement to that is that users mostly suck at solutions: you understand the constraints and difficulties of your product better than they do, so they tend to suggest things that are infeasible, overly specific, or prohibitively difficult to build.

When the public gives (or random bloggers give) give a damn about economics, it's a sign the economy isn't working. Of course they don't have useful solutions - they're not economists - but that feels a little beside the point: you don't have to be a plumber to recognize that your house is full of sewage. And since no one can be an expert in everything, life demands the ability to identify and call attention to problems you cannot personally solve.

An article like this is the equivalent of your roommate going "oh, damn, the living room is full of sewage, we better do something about that!" Of course you'll vigorously agree at first, because you're talking about the problem (which is clear to everyone). But then your roommate suggests fixing it by dropping dynamite down the drain - i.e., talking about the solution - and you're a lot more likely to disagree.

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