Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

waymo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

461–470 of 497 posts

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#461

Post by rglullis »

mulmen wrote: post #443
rglullis wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vans to complement buses are definitely a thing in São Paulo, and the cost of labor is not a limiting factor.

In my city the cost of labor is very much a limiting factor. Robot drivers will open up transit options that aren’t practical now.

How much are you willing to bet that the price of a Waymo ride will converge to be within 10% of the price of an Uber ride today?

(Also, followup question: how are the prices of Uber rides compared with regular taxi service, now that Uber has stopped subsidizing most of their trips?)

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#462

Post by JumpCrisscross »

zahlman wrote: post #454
mulmen wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, Because they’re both between Los Angeles and San Francisco. > and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". If not trains between cities what do you consider public transit?

>Because they’re both between Los Angeles and San Francisco. This explains exactly nothing to me. There are many cities between Toronto and Montreal (the two largest CMAs in Canada, and about 88% of that driving distance) and I can't imagine why anyone would regularly travel between those two, either. Nor can I imagine why someone would make regular trips between Belleville and Ottawa (very close to the Bakersfield-M…

> can't understand why this would be non-obvious. Maybe there's a cultural difference

Yes. Many Americans take it for granted that we have quick access to a variety of cities and landscapes. (Particularly on the coasts.)

Keep in mind that America is about a third richer, on a GDP per capita basis, than Canada. Even with stark income inequality, that produces a large disposable-income gap. Add to that the population gap and you have about the population of Canada travelling intercity many times a year.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#463

Post by JumpCrisscross »

zahlman wrote: post #452
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Not all miles travelled are equal. In value, urgency or desirability and thus price willing to be paid. Complaining about self driving cars is asinine. The scales are wrong. The problems are wrong. The places…

>Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Last I checked, Waymo also operates exclusively in urban areas.

> Waymo also operates exclusively in urban areas

There is no proximate future where public transit makes sense in Wyoming. There are multiple where self-driving cars do.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#464

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Mawr wrote: post #460
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures You seem to just not like that this is done by Google. (Or by any private entity.) That is fine. I, like, hate this one restaurant in New York. But be honest about your motivations and check your biases. This isn’t self-driving cars vs public transit debate because there isn’t one. If Google were funding a leg of passenger…

> The world’s largest rail system, period. I despise this way of arguing. Laying down x length of rail track is not a difficult problem whatsoever. Such a crude metric is entirely insufficient to back up an argument about how great American railways supposedly are. What's the ticket cost for the passengers compared to other countries? Average train delay? Cancellation rate? Speed? Death rate? The argument is not look…

> Laying down x length of rail track is not a difficult problem whatsoever

First by track and third by tonnage (after China and Russia).

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#465

Post by [deleted] »

mulmen wrote: post #131
mstade wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was just in CA for a few weeks and drove in SF quite a bit. There are Waymo cars everywhere and from the perspective of a driver I was more than a little cautious driving behind or next to one of them. I would rate their driving as quite good, but their signaling of intent was terrible. More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, e…

Good point about intent. As a passenger I appreciated how smooth it was but I can see how the lack of “body language” could be disorienting for human drivers. The Waymo driving style is almost passive-aggressive. It has superhuman situational awareness and knowledge. I wonder if it isn’t using blinkers effectively but it’s everyone else that’s technically wrong. It’s also not perfect so who knows. There’s probably st…

[deleted]

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#466

Post by JumpCrisscross »

yencabulator wrote: post #399
mulmen wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then self driving vehicles will be a new choice.

Self driving vehicles, with current technology, are unrealistic outside major cities. Major cities are the places where you least need a personal car. Google Maps still thinks the speed limit on a nearby highway is 35 mph. We spent several months without lane markers on the highway. Any vehicle driving around here based on the current self-driving architecture, requiring central mapping/planning and good infrastructu…

> Self driving vehicles, with current technology, are unrealistic outside major cities

Why? My Subaru can practically drive itself on most Wyoming roads, including in whiteout conditions. It’s easier to drive with fewer cars around. It’s just not as profitable to field a fleet in suburban and rural America.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#467

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rglullis wrote: post #461
mulmen wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my city the cost of labor is very much a limiting factor. Robot drivers will open up transit options that aren’t practical now.

How much are you willing to bet that the price of a Waymo ride will converge to be within 10% of the price of an Uber ride today? (Also, followup question: how are the prices of Uber rides compared with regular taxi service, now that Uber has stopped subsidizing most of their trips?)

> How much are you willing to bet that the price of a Waymo ride will converge to be within 10% of the price of an Uber ride today?

It should! That’s the competition! Hell, I’ll pay a premium for a quieter, safer (and for now, due to novelty, more fun) ride.

And if Waymo maintain a monopoly that will stay the case. Otherwise, the normal thing will happen.

> how are the prices of Uber rides compared with regular taxi service

Cheaper if I wait. More expensive if I want immediacy. Either way, far more utilised than taxis in almost any city I visit.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#468

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mulmen wrote: post #136
kiba wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impressive and all, but my reaction to self driving cars are completely different. It's a great technical feat, but it's not ever going to be efficient as public transportation. The form factor of the car works against it.

Make a self driving bus then. I take Ubers to bus stops today. Doesn’t seem like much of a leap.

> I take Ubers to bus stops today

Same for trains. I wouldn’t take the LIRR to JFK or Caltrain to SFO if I had to bike with my luggage or whatever. And I’m not adding an hour to my trip for the bus.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#469

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rglullis wrote: post #438
tim333 wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not in SV and was trying to think of ways it had harmed me personally. I haven't really been affected by any of the above. Maybe the app store thing a bit as I wrote an app and dealing with Apple was hard work. But then I wouldn't have been able to make an app without some company making the device for me to do it on. Re society, I grew up pre internet and I'd say there are pros and cons. On the plus side you hav…

You don't need to live in SV to be in its bubble. > I wouldn't have been able to make an app without some company making the device for me to do it on. If you are not asking yourself why should you need to ask permission to develop an app, I'm sorry but you are lost beyond repair. Stockholm's Syndrome is real.

> If you are not asking yourself why should you need to ask permission to develop an app, I'm sorry but you are lost beyond repair

We should get out of our bubbles…and make transportation decisions…based on our preferences as developers. Mobile app developers. We’re in the SV bubble…

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#470

Post by BarakWidawsky »

arnaudsm wrote: post #392

These results are meaningless, Waymo only drives in controlled, good weather, urban streets, while the human control group does not. This is not science, this is PR. We need independent investigations. And remember that currently, self-driving cars in California are exempt from traffic tickets : https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/04/self-driv... We learned that the hard way with Boeing, you cannot trust…

I have taken a Waymo in the rain before, if they have stopped supporting that as part of the service that’s new, buts it’s definitely within the systems capabilities. It worked great
Post reply on HN