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Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

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Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#461

Post by HPsquared »

goodcanadian wrote: post #451
notjoemama wrote: post #84

I recall having read about elections in Africa and the troubles they faced. I can't find it now, but there was one particular website offering a very detailed but rigorous approach to determining the legitimacy of elections. I'll offer this article from the BBC as a stand in for the criteria (from 2016): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37243190 Vote rigging: How to spot the tell-tale signs 1. Too many voters 2.…

One more tell tale sign is if a particular candidate's vote count correlates to voter turnout. That is a good sign of ballot box stuffing. [i.e. a candidate gets a higher percentage of the vote in districts with higher turnout]

Couldn't it also just be one party being very "organised" in that area and getting their people out to vote?

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#464

Post by HPsquared »

stapled_socks wrote: post #25

To play the devil's advocate: It's possible that the person making the announcement was only given the rounded percentages and the total number of votes, and then "created" the number of votes per candidate to fit to the format of the announcement. That would be sloppy, but not malicious.

That's the story we'll hear anyway, regardless of what actually happened.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#465

Post by HPsquared »

yongjik wrote: post #172
nikolay wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never seen any preliminary results announcing numbers of votes - it's always rounded up percentages with 1 or 2 decimals.

In my country (Korea) they broadcast vote counts, per district, in real time as data pours in from all over the country. It's a big entertainment going on for the whole night. And you can log onto the website of the office of the election commission and see raw numbers by each voting district. It's 2024; I'd consider it a minimum level of government competency if anyone wants to be called a democratic country.

This process led to a lot of controversy in the 2020 US Presidential election.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#466

Post by berdario »

akdev1l wrote: post #407
berdario wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was curious to understand what exactly are those raw images of the voting records. Apparently the ID of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarek_William_Saab is publicly known ( 8.459.301 ) So, thanks to that I've been able to check the "acta de escrutinio" of the El Carmen paroquia... That indeed looks plausible, but do we have any Venezuelan here that can corroborate that this website shows the same "acta de escrutini…

The locals probably can’t request shit because those records are in custody of the military. Many Venezuelan people have verified their records. Including the “witnesses” who have signed all the records. The signatures can be seen on the pictures. There’s nothing stopping anyone from doing OCR on the images to extract the count and just do the math. (Which is what I am doing but not as easy as it sounds)

> Many Venezuelan people have verified their records. Including the “witnesses” who have signed all the records. The signatures can be seen on the pictures

The thing is that these witness signatures could be forged (together with the tallies)

I assume that with "verified their records" you mean exactly what I'm asking for (but since I don't know any Venezuelan living in Venezuela, I haven't seen anyone verifying that stuff)

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#467

Post by jose_zap »

berdario wrote: post #317
akdev1l wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a literal website posted by the opposition. 1. Aggregated reports: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ 2. Raw images of the voting records: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/ The second requires a Venezuelan ID as input as it will identify the specific voting record for the person. I gathered all the records and put them in an archive: https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz The voting record…

I was curious to understand what exactly are those raw images of the voting records. Apparently the ID of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarek_William_Saab is publicly known ( 8.459.301 ) So, thanks to that I've been able to check the "acta de escrutinio" of the El Carmen paroquia... That indeed looks plausible, but do we have any Venezuelan here that can corroborate that this website shows the same "acta de escrutini…

The images can be corroborated by the random string that is printed at the bottom. It’s a digitally signed hash of the tally for that machine.

Political parties have access to the signing key and can verify that the signature matches.

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#468

Post by jose_zap »

akdev1l wrote: post #407
berdario wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was curious to understand what exactly are those raw images of the voting records. Apparently the ID of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarek_William_Saab is publicly known ( 8.459.301 ) So, thanks to that I've been able to check the "acta de escrutinio" of the El Carmen paroquia... That indeed looks plausible, but do we have any Venezuelan here that can corroborate that this website shows the same "acta de escrutini…

The locals probably can’t request shit because those records are in custody of the military. Many Venezuelan people have verified their records. Including the “witnesses” who have signed all the records. The signatures can be seen on the pictures. There’s nothing stopping anyone from doing OCR on the images to extract the count and just do the math. (Which is what I am doing but not as easy as it sounds)

There is no need to do any difficult OCR, the QR code contains the tally in machine-readable format. You just need a phone and copy the result to a csv file

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#469

Post by akdev1l »

jose_zap wrote: post #468
akdev1l wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The locals probably can’t request shit because those records are in custody of the military. Many Venezuelan people have verified their records. Including the “witnesses” who have signed all the records. The signatures can be seen on the pictures. There’s nothing stopping anyone from doing OCR on the images to extract the count and just do the math. (Which is what I am doing but not as easy as it sounds)

There is no need to do any difficult OCR, the QR code contains the tally in machine-readable format. You just need a phone and copy the result to a csv file

Oh cool, I had no idea what the QR code was.

There’s over 20k images so using a phone isn’t feasible. But programmatically cropping the QR code and scanning it seems doable.

Thank you for your input

Re: Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election

#470

Post by wruza »

sien wrote: post #233
colimbarna wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Note to self: Next time I want to rig election results, generate a random integer between 54.2% and 54.3% of the vote and count it as the winner's vote, subtract from total pool, wash rinse repeat.

It's remarkable that they don't do this. The sheer incompetence of the Maduro government and other governments that rig election results is surprising.

You’re much more intelligent than any of the people that control your life, especially so in a dictatorship. That’s a pill hard to swallow, but ideas itt aren’t even remotely a concern for them. They are idiots with a microphone who excel at being at power, that’s it. Everything else gets done by lower and lower ranks with higher and higher competence. Since election rigging isn’t an industry, you can’t expect it to be any smart. It’s not even that “only 1% who understands will be unconvinced, so why care”. They simply aren’t aware of this because it works without it.
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