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The strange case of Britain’s demise

economist.com

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Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#461

Post by pydry »

petesergeant wrote: post #24
tobylane wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think overwhelming is the right word, his vote share was around Blair’s average. Now that half of Tory MPs have been cabinet members, it’s harder to demand loyalty by dangling a job for votes. Especially the ministerial roles that the public are aware of. The article seems to be avoiding the term "lame duck period". It reads an excessively selective set of opinions, and it's unclear who should be trying harde…

> his vote share was around Blair’s average Blair got 35% of the vote after 8 years of power and the Iraq war, against a decent challenger and experienced politician. Corbyn got 32% — as the opposition — against an incumbent who’s approval ratings at the time were underwater and who led an unpopular party who’d been in power far too long already.

Blair had the support of the media (especially Murdoch, whose ring he kissed) and the career politicians and bureaucrats in his own party.

The career politicians, the party functionaries and virtually the entire media had their daggers out for Corbyn.

The 2017 election was a different story. The elites hadn't closed ranks at that point.

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#462

Post by gerbler »

TapWaterBandit wrote: post #292
cecida wrote: post #254

I'm based in Ireland, and travel regularly to both Britain and California with work. I've always been shocked with the poverty and sense of systemic decline I witness in San Fran. Visiting London and being part of the tech industry can insulate you from just how grim things are in large parts of Britain as well though. Not saying Ireland is some sort of utopia by any means, and we have our own enormous challenges wit…

Ireland's prosperity is built on a house of cards to do with low corporation taxes. I wouldn't be surprised if Ireland faces serious economic challenges and maybe even decline in coming years as governments are getting increasingly serious about not allowing corporations to only register profits in overseas jurisdictions with low tax rates.

It was the initial incentive, but it's the only English speaking country in the eurozone (aside from Malta) and there's a huge number of companies who have massive capital investments (pharma/biomedical). Now there's a very active tech scene, it's tightly linked to the US so it actually feels quite sustainable.

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#463

Post by int_19h »

mjfl wrote: post #424
rconti wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"democracy is under threat when people ~I don't like~ who advocate the overturn of democracy are elected" FTFY.

You really are not grasping how ubiquitously this concept is used. Biden has declared democratically elected people like Georgia Meloni and Victor Orban, and candidates like Marine le Pen to be dangers to democracy. It certainly isn't restricted to Trump. The fact that you jump to him shows how blind you are.

Democratically elected people can absolutely be a danger to democracy. I remember when Russia democratically elected Putin. In 5 years, all opposition TV channels were owned by the government and the oligarchs that chose subserviency over prison. In 10 years, elections were so blatantly fraudulent that voting became pointless.

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#464

Post by PaulRobinson »

prof-dr-ir wrote: post #246
PaulRobinson wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to suggest you take a look at almost everything done in power by George W. Bush, Donald Trump, François Holland, Paul von Hindenburg, Silvio Berlusconi, Brian Cowen, Jair Bolsonaro... the list could go on... and compare and contrast and then ask if this is subjectively a phenomenon truly unique to the UK. Bad leadership of the type you describe has shown itself in every country in the World at some point. th…

I would like to stress that the gap I speak of is not about stupidity or competence in itself; instead it is about being oblivious to one's own incompetence. For example, I think that people like Trump, Berlusconi, Cheney, etc. are not in the same class. They are certainly bad leaders, but largely because they are selfish grifters who care little about their country. On the other hand people like Cameron, Rees-Mogg,…

I want to be clear about the argument you're making, as I think this is where our difference arises.

You think Trump, Berlusconi, and so on are selfish grifters but do not believe they are truly destined for greatness?

And you think Cameron, Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Truss are _not_ selfish grifters but are in it for the "greatness"?

I think you should do more research on both groups. Trump and Berlusconi (and many others I mentioned), seem to choose their actions based on self-interest fiscally and for their ego. They are over-confident in their ability to make good decisions because they feel they have been "chosen", and are "special". Their distaste for due process and the rule of law is evidence of this, I feel.

But so are the British leaders. Go do some digging, find out how they made their money and built their relationships in Parliament. Find out about the Bullingdon club, find out about Rees-Mogg's money, find out about the Institute of Economic Affairs, and more. You'll find every single one of the British leaders you named had the exact same profile of grifting and ego-driven self-belief that Berlusconi, Bolsonaro, Trump, W. Bush, and others have shown.

Your argument that there is something unique to Britain about this is weak to my mind. I can find identical behaviours of corruption, idiocy, grifting, ego and incompetence in recent history of every G20 country, every NATO member, every EU state, every democracy.

Writing this makes me feel cynical, but the good news is that there is plenty of evidence of competence and "greater good" style leaders around everywhere too - in Britain, as much as anywhere else.

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#465

Post by phist_mcgee »

Lio wrote: post #458
matkoniecz wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like lemmings off a cliff. I just want to mention that actual lemmings are not doing this. This was faked by Disney employees throwing lemmings out off a cliff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming#Misconceptions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Wilderness_(film)#Contro...

I once went to a very posh Disney themed fancy dress party dressed as a lemming. When explained why the host’s family were not amused. :P Never. Trust. Disney.

As an aside, it makes me very uneasy to see grown adults be so infatuated with Disney IPs.

The quote from Alec Guinness about Star Wars in his autobiography:

“A refurbished Star Wars is on somewhere or everywhere. I have no intention of revisiting any galaxy. I shrivel inside each time it is mentioned. Twenty years ago, when the film was first shown, it had a freshness, also a sense of moral good and fun. Then I began to be uneasy at the influence it might be having. The first bad penny dropped in San Francisco when a sweet-faced boy of twelve told me proudly that he had seen Star Wars over a hundred times. His elegant mother nodded with approval. Looking into the boy's eyes I thought I detected little star-shells of madness beginning to form and I guessed that one day they would explode.

'I would love you to do something for me,' I said.

'Anything! Anything!' the boy said rapturously.

'You won't like what I'm going to ask you to do,' I said.

'Anything, sir, anything!'

'Well,' I said, 'do you think you could promise never to see Star Wars again?'

He burst into tears. His mother drew herself up to an immense height. 'What a dreadful thing to say to a child!' she barked, and dragged the poor kid away. Maybe she was right but I just hope the lad, now in his thirties, is not living in a fantasy world of secondhand, childish banalities.”

I think about that a lot when seeing the lengths many adults go to immersing themselves into these "cinematic universes" `

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#466

Post by int_19h »

alvah wrote: post #412

"Britain seems trapped in a doom loop of superannuated governments which, after a term or two of charismatic leadership and reformist vim, wind up bereft of talent, sinking in their own mistakes and wracked by backbench rebellions; in office but barely in power" That's not just Britain, the entire West has this problem. IMO the rise of professional politicians who've never worked outside of politics is a major cause…

When was it ever different?

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#467

Post by klelatti »

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #341
klelatti wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually key parts of Solvency II (Matching Adjustment - drafted by the U.K.) specifically favours corporate debt over government bonds which is in part why actually U.K. insurers don’t hold much government debt at all. Really odd that you should get this so wrong.

This isn't the case. Solvency II treats govt bonds as essentially risk-free, corporate bonds are not treated as risk-free, and there are substantial capital requirements for non-bond investments. UK insurers have substantial holdings of govt debt (really odd that you should get this so wrong), they are one of the largest non-govt investors in the market (obviously).

What return can insurers assume under the MA and how does that compare to government bonds?

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#468

Post by BrotherBisquick »

phist_mcgee wrote: post #465
Lio wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once went to a very posh Disney themed fancy dress party dressed as a lemming. When explained why the host’s family were not amused. :P Never. Trust. Disney.

As an aside, it makes me very uneasy to see grown adults be so infatuated with Disney IPs. The quote from Alec Guinness about Star Wars in his autobiography: “A refurbished Star Wars is on somewhere or everywhere. I have no intention of revisiting any galaxy. I shrivel inside each time it is mentioned. Twenty years ago, when the film was first shown, it had a freshness, also a sense of moral good and fun. Then I bega…

Based.

I'm surprised he hasn't been cancelled for "not letting people enjoy things."

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#469

Post by ben_w »

chimeracoder wrote: post #321
ben_w wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the voting map looked like this, and the UK just can't do that kind of subdivision: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/Un... Also, look how narrow the margins are on that scale bar. Most of those regions would need to be further subdivided, and the whole of the UK would end up like Baarle-Nassau: Baarle-Nassau https://maps.app.goo.gl/aRn73rm1cz2fHznt7?g_st=ic

> Because the voting map looked like this, and the UK just can't do that kind of subdivision The UK has plenty of experience drawing partition lines in other countries. I have full faith that they could manage it here if they tried. Looking at the map, these would even be very clean lines by British standards.

The British Empire certainly did have a lot of experience of that, but it wasn't exactly good for the people on the ground where that had been done. One of those partition lines led to a 30-year low-intensity civil war that only ended in 1998: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles

Another now has both sides pointing nukes at each other: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India

Re: The strange case of Britain’s demise

#470

Post by reallydontask »

mattlondon wrote: post #454
mytailorisrich wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corbyn and McDonnell were essentially communists and therefore unelectable. Blair took the realistic route: Socialism does not work, let's have a market economy create wealth that can then be used to finance social programs. A flavour a social democracy. I think a reason Corbyn was so popular among the young is that enough time has passed so that this generation has no idea what socialist countries in Europe were act…

The young like it because they don't have much skin in the game. "Tax the rich!" Is great when you are not rich, and most young people are not (yet) rich. Coming out of uni saddled with debt and doing entry level jobs etc, it is easy to just think selfishly and say "The rich should pay for more! Not me!" Eventually you run out of other people's money though.

> The young like it because they don't have much skin in the game.

This is completely backwards, they have the MOST skin in the game. They are the ones that are going not going to have things we take/took for granted like: living and working in the EU or being able to enjoy a pension.

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