EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

Post by coderenegade » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 2:12 PM UTC

01100011 wrote: post #263

JKCalhoun wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strikes me as odd that electrics are not cheaper than internal combustion. I guess it's the batteries, huh?

Batteries and lots of copper and aluminum. Steel is cheap. You also have better economy of scale in IC vehicles for now. I feel like we're dismissing other hydrocarbons too early. When I was a kid, people had propane or methane cars which were basically converted gasoline cars. Sure, not anywhere near as efficient but combined with hybrid tech for regenerative braking you likely have a more efficient car overall(nat…

Post by epistasis » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 2:13 PM UTC

massysett wrote: post #383

epistasis wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure thing, but keeping 10 gallons of gasoline is more than a couple of cans. And even then, so what? How many people need to do that, or will ever do that, except for off-roading or obscure jobs? This is a legitimate use, but for a vanishingly small number of people. Back when LED lights were first being pushed, we saw a lot of the same resistance to a new product that was superior for nearly every single use case,…

LED lights burn out prematurely in over half the fixtures in my house because they are fully enclosed. The bulbs can’t take the heat. This is true even for bulbs that claim they are suitable for use in fully enclosed luminaires. I have switched back to compact fluorescents. It seems to me that EV advocates aren’t very similar to what we see with LED bulbs. EV advocates refuse to even acknowledge that EVs are not for…

Post by dzhiurgis » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 2:20 PM UTC

tpxl wrote: post #340

anovikov wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insufficient capacity is all that blocks EV market share from hitting 60-70% in an instant (rest will be diehard conservatives). So we will see it being the case for the next 10 years or so, naturally.

Grid capacity is what blocks EV market share and will continue to be the blocker for the foreseeable future. A 2 person apartment where I live will consume ~400kWh of power in a typical month. Charging a 100kWh battery twice a month per person would double the power usage. We don't have the power generation, nor power delivery for that, nor will we have it for some time.

Post by koheripbal » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #44

darkteflon wrote: post #29

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choice…

Plausible, but I always come back to TCO. The real reason EVs are suddenly gaining traction is that prices for gasoline spiked and a lot of people are finally realizing that EVs typically cost much less to fuel. Think about how people suddenly start trading in pickups for compact cars when gas prices have spiked in the past -- and maybe that to save 25-50% on fuel cost. A bunch of people are realizing that going to E…

Post by crims0n » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 2:38 PM UTC

gbear605 wrote: post #464

crims0n wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me add one more, and I don't think it's an edge case but for some reason nobody talks about it - a large percentage of people just don't want them. That, to me, is the biggest blocker of adoption. Most of the other arguments people have against EVs are engineering problems that would be solved quickly if demand was high enough - but demand is not high, only 2.5% of automobile sales in the US were EVs last year, a…

The low purchase amount is a supply issue, not a demand issue. I’ve talked to many people who want to buy an EV but can’t because all the dealers nearby have a waiting list of over a year long to buy one.