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What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

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Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#461

Post by xdennis »

rtkwe wrote: post #99
sixQuarks wrote: post #48

Let’s not forget that talking about the lab leak hypothesis last year resulted in censorship among social media platforms and YouTube This is why free speech is important, it is impossible to rely on “fact checkers”.

The lab leak hypothesis was also pretty tightly coupled with the bioweapon/intentional release theory which is part of why it received so much push back. Also I don't recall the specific fact check messages but if they were in line with "there's no hard evidence of a lab leak" I'd say that's still pretty accurate.

> The lab leak hypothesis was also pretty tightly coupled with the bioweapon/intentional release theory which is part of why it received so much push back.

No it wasn't. The media often takes the most extreme case in order to denigrate the whole side that they don't like.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#462

Post by cm2012 »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #328
synergy20 wrote: post #79

Based on what China's reaction to the source-chasing-efforts, I have no doubt it is where this is originated. Wuhan is a huge city with the only lab on earth that works with SARS, virus-leak is not uncommon in China over the years(including SARS-1 that was leaked a few times but was contained quickly), after COVID China issued lots of new policies including stricter lab management, and new leadership from military to…

Lack of transparency in China proves nothing. CYA is standard operating procedure there, regardless if there is any guilt or not. Up and down the chain they will cover for each other, if not for the simple reason they themselves don't know what shit their superiors or underlings are up to... And it is entirely rational, even when they believe that there hasn't been a lab leak, to shut down any investigations into it,…

The biggest evidence for lab leak is that no one can find a wild reservoir of covid 19. The Chinese government and the rest of the world has a ton incentive to find a reservoir and havnt.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#463

Post by xtracto »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #400
dehrmann wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone in tech, what bothers me is all the attention AI gets for possible ethical problems, while biologists are doing some pretty scary experiments with potentially large-scale negative consequences, and they've gotten relatively little attention.

Biologists have well developed frameworks for judging the ethics of experiments that has been built up over a century of horrifying missteps. AI is at the "hire and fire until they get a sycophant" stage in the development of proper ethical review methods.

Not chinese biologists . Or Mexican biologists for all that matters (I'm from Mexico). I mean, there's a lot of countries capable of playing with viruses which dont have real practical controls.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#464

Post by hedora »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

Two things are clear:

1) If it was a lab leak, it was from a well-documented collaboration between American and Chinese biological weapons researchers.

2) It's extremely likely a leak like this will occur in the future, since these sorts of weapons programs are common.

I don't see why most people should care if it was a leak or not. It doesn't have any impact on (2) moving forward.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#465

Post by AzzieElbab »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

What happened to zoonotic hypothesis? Any updates? Was culprit identified by means other than Bayesian reasoning?

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#466

Post by tripletao »

lamontcg wrote: post #395
mikeyouse wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both of your points are directly and conclusively addressed in the post.. > First, because viruses travel easily – so even if 100% of early cases were around the market, it could have reached the market via a lab worker There were two distinct lineages at the market with a cluster of positive environmental samples in the wild animal section. I would love to hear a plausible theory on how two unrelated lineages came t…

> There were two distinct lineages at the market No there were two distinct lineages in two separate crossover events, the market was just one of them. Which is even worse for the lab-leak hypothesis.

They're literally just two SNPs apart, per my reply to the grandparent and link to Jesse Bloom's Twitter. What do you think excludes the possibility that those arose during human-to-human transmission, whether at the market or during cryptic spread before that?

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#467

Post by generj »

user3939382 wrote: post #71
stetrain wrote: post #12

I think understanding the origin is important, but I also understand why it wasn't a media fixation during the pandemic itself. 1) Understanding the origin doesn't change the consequences or response to the pandemic 2) Unlike the nuclear analogy in the article, pandemic virus outbreaks happen naturally, and fairly frequently. Combined with the huge increase in global travel, when one does happen it can be around the…

I guess I'm more cynical, maybe even conspiratorial. My theory is that NIH was possibly, even if indirectly, contributing funding to the research that caused the outbreak, and that the major corporate media networks are there to shill for the establishment forces in the government and hushed this story as not to humiliate Fauci and the NIH. I've seen Rand Paul credibly grilling Fauci on this issue a number of times a…

Rand Paul isn’t credible on nearly any topic, but especially not SARS-CoV-2. We are talking about a man who proposed banning masks on public transit, knew he had COVID but didn’t inform anyone but instead spread COVID amongst a bunch of elderly Senators, and spent time railing against vaccines for children.

The man is a non-practicing eye doctor who pretends to medical knowledge he doesn’t have.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#468

Post by jameset »

mikeyouse wrote: post #84

For those with a bit more background in the sciences, there's an increasingly massive amount of evidence to support Zoonotic origin. Philipp Markolin has a good rundown: https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g... Most of the "evidence" for lab leak is just weird insinuation -- it's increasingly hard to pin down what the advocates for that position are even arguing (e.g. whether it's a natural vir…

Definitely not true. There is lots of circumstantial evidence for research-related origin but no dispositive evidence for zoonotic or research related Orion. And Markolin… well… not worth your time

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#469

Post by slater »

generj wrote: post #467
user3939382 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I'm more cynical, maybe even conspiratorial. My theory is that NIH was possibly, even if indirectly, contributing funding to the research that caused the outbreak, and that the major corporate media networks are there to shill for the establishment forces in the government and hushed this story as not to humiliate Fauci and the NIH. I've seen Rand Paul credibly grilling Fauci on this issue a number of times a…

Rand Paul isn’t credible on nearly any topic, but especially not SARS-CoV-2. We are talking about a man who proposed banning masks on public transit, knew he had COVID but didn’t inform anyone but instead spread COVID amongst a bunch of elderly Senators, and spent time railing against vaccines for children. The man is a non-practicing eye doctor who pretends to medical knowledge he doesn’t have.

Especially when you look into how he got his license. IIRC, something about a layman/self-appointed board, or something similar (allegedly!)

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#470

Post by xdennis »

walls wrote: post #168
khazhoux wrote: post #3

Jon Stewart's classic lab-leak rant on Colbert's show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8&t=178s

There's all these tornado research facilities in the same place we keep getting tornados!

Wuhan is quite far from where most bats life in China. It's like having a tornado research facility in New York.
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