Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place • Hacker News Board

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#461

Post by [deleted] » Fri, May 13, 2022, 8:59 PM UTC

more_corn wrote: post #429

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

Which state? DMV is my favorite example of government because everything they do is required and everything they do is done terribly. I’ll have to revise if I meet a DMV I like.

[deleted]

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#462

Post by quickthrower2 » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:01 PM UTC

the_doctah wrote: post #451

paxys wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When would you have sold? When the market was at its "peak" in 2011? Or 2014? Or 2015? Or 2018? Or 2020?

The first time Netflix stock ate shit, so in January.

Why Netflix? I stopped my Netflix to use Amazon Video. Bad for Netflix but still good for streaming and tech.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#463

Post by traskjd » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:02 PM UTC

diob wrote: post #63

MAGZine wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.

It also comes from feeling financially secure enough to be comfortable asking those questions. Early in my career I wouldn't have, but at this point I have enough money that I can afford to be more discerning.

Ultimate test of a good place though if you ask when young.

I asked for my first grad role. I asked a lot of probing questions. 3 years in I was running teams and setting up operations for the business in another country for them. I even told them I’d be leaving to start my own business after this job (and did). This resonated because I was speaking to their founder at the time and knew we’d be cut from the same clothe.

Holding yourself back at a young age can just stunt your career development. Asking such questions will appeal to the right employer.

Unsurprisingly this one went from 35 to 150 staff, profitably in the 3 years I worked there. I was 22 when setting up other parts of their business. I’d started at 19.

I wouldn’t advise folks to avoid such questions just because they’re young or “need the job”. Stand out! You’re even more likely to get the job.

As noted by others here: if they react poorly to this in the interview, you already won by dodging a bullet.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#464

Post by s1artibartfast » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:03 PM UTC

corrral wrote: post #331

otterley wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something seems a bit off, then, because if the market is appreciating, then the appraisers should be taking that into account. As another commenter said, they were certainly doing that in hot West Coast markets like SF and Seattle. Both houses I purchased (each in those locations) appraised at the contract price, and I bought them both within the last 7 years.

They do, but it lags. If prices are going up fast enough, given the way these things are determined, it can easily be the case that damn near every house isn't appraising at what it sells for. The "solution" to this, in the run up to the '08 crisis, was for appraisers to "help out" by fudging their figure to make it match the sale price. I know this because a real estate agent whose husband was a loan officer, told m…

It comes down to what the appraiser is really saying with their appraisal. Are they saying that in today's market this is what the house could go for or are they predicting the future value outside of a bubble

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#465

Post by quickthrower2 » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:03 PM UTC

dewlinedew2 wrote: post #119

immigrantheart wrote: post #59

I almost got offer from DoorDash, with obviously RSU as one of the compensation. Eventually didn't get the offer because they said I didn't pass leadership interview. Apparently I was interviewing at one level above I thought I was interviewing (the recruiter messed up). Anyway, I accepted an offer from a hedge fund, comparatively similar, but all cash. Now I feel that I am glad I accepted the hedge fund offer. I don…

Why not ask your friends at work?

Maybe he was supposed to blow it on lifestyle to stay hungry and doesn’t want to own up to the FU money.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#466

Post by jorblumesea » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:04 PM UTC

immigrantheart wrote: post #59

I almost got offer from DoorDash, with obviously RSU as one of the compensation. Eventually didn't get the offer because they said I didn't pass leadership interview. Apparently I was interviewing at one level above I thought I was interviewing (the recruiter messed up). Anyway, I accepted an offer from a hedge fund, comparatively similar, but all cash. Now I feel that I am glad I accepted the hedge fund offer. I don…

Doordash has compensation ideas where they will top you up if your comp falls under some percentage of grant price (80-90%). Many companies are moving to this model to ensure that stock prices don't impact TC too highly.

Another way to look at it is that people were all too happy to accept the status quo until now.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#467

Post by rootusrootus » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

petra wrote: post #358

Robotbeat wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…

The DMV outsourced it's service in some areas. Service improved. So it's possible to benefit from the benefits of public spending and private efficiencies. It's a pretty common method for governments to spend money.

I wonder if the DMV is a bit of a special case, not necessarily a good example of government bureaucracy. The customers are almost universally resentful, because they are paying the government money to let them drive. They're angry because it's slow, and it's slow because the process requires bringing in third-party paperwork (e.g. insurance, sales receipt, dealer paperwork, whatever) and there's a lot of opportunities to get it wrong. So it often involves more than one trip.

If I had to deal with customers at the DMV, I think I'd be grouchy too.

Another reason to try and get as much of it online as possible, which I think is most of it nowadays.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#468

Post by Thlom » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

dangrossman wrote: post #348

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

The DMV in my state requires you make an appointment 4-6 months out right now. Walk-in appointments are unavailable or only available during a few hours a few days a week, if they happen to have staff that day. Good luck if you have your drivers license stolen. I sold a car of mine to Carvana in October. I returned the license plate to the DMV immediately, which is how they're notified that you no longer own the vehi…

WTF? This must be because of willful political sabotage?

The license plate should follow the car and ownership should be changed online as part of the transaction. It sounds incredibly wasteful that every time a car changes ownership the seller must hand over the plates in person to the DMV. And is there no national registry of cars or data sharing between states? Strange that a car can be registered twice.

If your drivers license is stolen you should be able to just order a new one online and have it delivered in the mail. I have been inside the building of our DMV equivalent two times. One time when I did theoretical exam to be allowed a practical driving test, and once for the driving test. I got a temporary license when I passed and the proper license in the mail the next week. This was 20 years ago.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#469

Post by quickthrower2 » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:07 PM UTC

MattGaiser wrote: post #99

prohobo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm saying that he was already neck deep in bad investments, which he happily funded. That's the main point I'm talking about. I'm not saying my idea deserved investment, just that this whole industry has been full of bullshit for years.

He wouldn't consider them bad investments though.

Often the company is the product. The customer is big tech companies acquiring small startup companies. The company itself in that scenario might just be some smart people working on an idea but no idea how it will make money.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#470

Post by kd913 » Fri, May 13, 2022, 9:07 PM UTC

r3trohack3r wrote: post #318

kurthr wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is "the market" working for you! We could allocate resources to productive assets by fiscal spending, but that is prevented by politics. Only when "the market" gets its cut can any infrastructure be built in the US. That's also true for much of the medical establishment and pension/retirement systems. If the market was efficient, we wouldn't be complaining about it. Unfortunately, a "free market" and an efficien…

> We could allocate resources When you buy/sell crypto - money changes hands. That money wasn't really "allocated" to crypto, beyond miner fees, just redistributed. That cash still exists. The resources being allocated are graphics cards, human time, and electricity AFAICT. The power usage of crypto is relatively small compared to other active human endeavors. It's power usage doesn't approach other arbitrary value s…

Those other endeavors scale significantly more efficiently and are a necessity.

Gold is a requirement for industrial purposes, for jewellry, for chemical processes for medication.

Visa/Mastercard perform many hundred of thousand transactions per second.

BTC is limited to 350k per day, and consumes the equivalent CO2 impact as Austria. It can't and won't ever scale, which leaves it open to market manipulation and centralization as transactions move off-chain.

It's not a small amount of energy wasted, and there are significantly more valuable uses for that energy, such as aluminum production or water desalination.