Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not OP, but also a skeptic and here are my thoughts: - Market cap is sort of a misleading stat. Microsoft's market cap is ~1.75 trillion, but it's p/e ratio is 34. So if they stopped reinvesting in their business, I'd be making 3% yearly on that investment with a hedge against inflation since they can just raise prices. A lot more goes into their valuation than that, but my point is that even if you are a huge skepti…
wow you have so many conflicting views, irrelevant comparisons between two types of markets and asset class, and don't seem to realize it? equities markets cant be compared to a commodity. so that invalidates your entire first paragraph, the longest one. as a corollary to that, don't derive your confidence from equities investors opining about commodities for the first time in their lives. you have equities investors…
It's not really a commodity. More of a currency.
> you want high price for a longer period of time, but are turned off by the exact and only mechanism in which it gets there - large % and large $ amount price increases. fascinating.
I'm not saying it's worth nothing. If bitcoin stays above 5k for a long time, i'm willing to say it's worth at least 5k. If it stays above 50k for a long time, i'll come around and say it's worth at least 50k.
> I’d like to leave you with an alternative tool for valuing, and its just scarcity.
Scarcity alone doesn't mean anything. I can create a cryptocurrency any time that's scarce. Doesn't make it valuable.
> Bitcoin’s not a company so dont use company comparisons.
The only commodity that it is comparable to is gold and maybe a few other precious metals that serve as value stores. And gold, for one, has held high value for thousands of years. Maybe it doesn't have intrinsic value in the way that canned beans do, but the chances of it being near worthless tomorrow are very very low since it has a 5000+ year track record. On the other hand, yes, there's seasonality and volatility in things like oil and pigs, but there are also real world use cases for those.