Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#461

Post by closeparen » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

609venezia wrote: post #59

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Can we make millions of the tests rapidly available? I am still reading about test shortages on both coasts, even under the restricted testing regime we have been in so far. Maybe the no-contact thermometers could be a scalable approach. Go to the bank? Forehead scan to get in. Go to the grocery store? Same. At least until--and maybe even after--we can scale the RNA testing.

Asymptomatic transmission is the key here. It's why "stay home if you're sick" or denying entry to detectably sick people isn't enough.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#462

Post by WalterBright » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

6510 wrote: post #457

chii wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the ones with important jobs are often paid the least. that's the wrong way to think about it, and also a misunderstanding of economics. If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid, there won't be enough money for very many teachers. You'd find it hard to afford a teacher for your kids, let alone free education. A doctor, back in the middle ages, is only affordable to the nobility. These days, doctors are still quit…

CEO of what? Bullshit inc? > If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid You are thinking about it wrongly. We should pay the CEO the same as the teacher. Managing a bunch of adults can't possibly be harder than teaching children. Education is an actual investment. Bullshit inc not so much.

The beauty of capitalism is "we" don't decide CEO pay. The owners of the company do, and it's paid out of the owners' pocket.

Anyone is free to start a corporation, name a CEO, and pay him whatever they want to (from their money). They can even name themselves CEO!

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#463

Post by ghthor » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 9:55 PM UTC

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Yeah, sorry buddy, I'm not going to get tested like that.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#464

Post by oggy » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

justanotherc wrote: post #426

oggy wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The effectiveness doesn't need to be perfect. If I'm now only 50% less contagious to others with my no-longer-sterile mask, that's a huge win.

There is a shortage of masks and other PPE because people think that way. There is a cost because if everyone were to wear masks, there is not enough supply for healthcare professionals who could actually benefit from them. The percentage of effectiveness isn't really measurable if the standard isn't followed. You're assuming its 50%, but it very well could be 0% because your equipment is just as contaminated as your…

I agree that we shouldn't be taking the supply away from the professionals while there's a shortage, but your statement was that they were ineffective in the hands of laymen, and I don't think that's true.

I'm not assuming that they are 50% effective either, I pulled the 50% number out of my ass, but so is your 0%, and I find it hard to imagine a physical reality where me keeping a 6 feet distance to an infected person decreases my infection probability significantly more than that person wearing a mask. Anecdotally, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, where wearing masks is quite commonplace all seem to be doing better in transmission rate than the Western world, and all that without killing their economies. And considering that we're producing around 2 billion disposable plastic bottles a day, I'd currently bet money that we should be able to ramp up the supply of cheap masks for a sum that's a lot less than that of halting 50% of the Western economy for several months. Obviously, it can't happen in a day, but I'm not really seeing anyone try, except for perhaps Trump after his recent epiphany that Corona is not a Democrats' hoax. I'm willing to be dissuaded by someone who's actually thought it through, but sadly I haven't seen any such analyses.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#465

Post by jeadfa » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 10:23 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #17

danieltillett wrote: post #10

It is time to declare war. We need to move to a war economy and get on with what needs to be done.

What does that even mean?

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#466

Post by TwoNineFive » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:27 AM UTC

zaidf wrote: post #5

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

“one sick per household and they infect the whole house“ This happened repeatedly in China; in fact, the nature of a lockdown sort of encourages this. But an infected household of 5 ppl is significantly easier to contain than 1 infected person going on to infect 4 people from 4 different walks of life.

The same-household infection rate in china was 10.5% last I read. I don't know if there's any data yet from other countries.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#467

Post by sjg007 » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:35 AM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #386

sjg007 wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could buy gift cards for future service at these bars and restaurants. The business gets cash now and you get a discount.

If they remain open. That might be about a coin-flip on average at this point. As a moral issue, we are choosing to continue to pay our every-other-week house cleaner to not clean our house. Everyone else is getting paid iff they provide current goods/services. We have our own financial survival to look out for until more is clear about the economic outlook.

I don't know what to say.. Do you want your local food and bars to remain in business? If so you have to prepay. If you buy a gift card you are basically insuring them against default. I am sure they will factor in some loyalty reward. Restaurants and bars close and change ownership all of the time.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#468

Post by sangnoir » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:42 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #462

6510 wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CEO of what? Bullshit inc? > If a teacher is paid the way a CEO is paid You are thinking about it wrongly. We should pay the CEO the same as the teacher. Managing a bunch of adults can't possibly be harder than teaching children. Education is an actual investment. Bullshit inc not so much.

The beauty of capitalism is "we" don't decide CEO pay. The owners of the company do, and it's paid out of the owners' pocket. Anyone is free to start a corporation, name a CEO, and pay him whatever they want to (from their money). They can even name themselves CEO!

> The owners of the company do, and it's paid out of the owners' pocket.

This is not true for publicly traded companies - where the board (consisting mostly executives at other companies) determines compensation on behalf of the owners

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#469

Post by sangnoir » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 12:52 AM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #442

sho wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when I invest my money, I expect to see a return If that return is at the cost of the stability and welfare of society at large then sorry, but no. No-one "deserves" a return and nothing happens in a vacuum. Larger society comes first, full stop. Seems this is a lesson we humans forget, and need to collectively and painfully relearn, every few decades.

Larger society comes first, full stop. Ah, the rallying cry of 20th-century tyrants. You can justify just about anything with that statement.

If you prefer to think of it in economic terms, you may consider disrupting societal stability as counterparty risk, writ large.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#470

Post by JMTQp8lwXL » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 1:14 AM UTC

um_ya wrote: post #206

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #4

Instead of hundreds of billions in loans to businesses, which have to be underwritten -- and as discussed on Slides 17/18, the SBA did an abysmal job administrating during Hurricane Sandy, helicopter money might be the better answer. Give everyone money, no criteria. If we do impose income limits, and since viable proposals do -- we ought to discuss it. Give them a check now anyways. We cannot be worried people will…

The origin of the phrase "helicopter money" was from Milton Friedman, when he described the lunacy of the concept. Ironic it's used seriously today.

Much has changed since Friedman was in vogue. The application of such economic theories has left a solid portion of Americans in the dust. Fully free markets are a great idea when houses cost 2x median annual income, a single family income can support a spouse and ~2 children, etc.