Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

Post by ajmurmann » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:37 AM UTC

chongli wrote: post #326

hatenberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights. Science is supposed to mitigate the shortcomings of our natural intuitions and cognitive biases. The problem is that most people are not scientists. When a non-scientist is asked to trust a scientist, he or she is subj…

Post by droithomme » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

friedman23 wrote: post #337

hatenberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

> The math was very clear by early/mid February The leaders of the country, the people in power, and the populace are not math literate.

Post by irq11 » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:42 AM UTC

freepor wrote: post #450

irq11 wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This article claims that “lockdown” is the best way to stop the virus, then says that South Korea and China are the examples to follow. It claims that Korea has made a lockdown. South Korea has, at no point, made anything close to the country-wide “lockdown” we’re seeing in parts of Europe. Korea’s reaction is amongst the most successful in the world, and involves contact tracing and isolation of the sick. When they…

There are basically two paths: act swiftly and decisively at the very beginning. Immediately close your borders. Find the infected and contact trace them. Dragnet test where necessary. Haul off the sick to quarantine locations run by the government. etc. Then you don't need to lock down the entire country. Path 2 is you fuck it up and Covid-19 is running rampant through your entire population. Of course at this point…

Post by ajmurmann » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:43 AM UTC

beamatronic wrote: post #372

res0nat0r wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is going to be in terrible shape very soon, just look at this as of tonight: https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1239004689338970113

I cannot understand why unnecessary flying was not shut down weeks or months ago.

Post by sneak » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

jerf wrote: post #215

on_and_off wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fear that the situation is already at that state in the USA. There are 1600 confirmed cases but the lack of tests hides how many real infections there are.

Like China, "the USA" is very large and probably not something that can be treated as an atomic entity. Even much-smaller Italy is probably too large for that. While there may be hot spots that develop in the US, I can tell you from personal experience that there states that have taken strong measures when there are still single-digit numbers of infected in them. The state I'm in is not in a mandatory full lockdown p…