Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

461–470 of 671 posts

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#461

Post by munificent »

SkyBelow wrote: post #384
munificent wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? If. Did Trump ever put more effort into anything in his campaign and Presidency than he put into preventing his tax returns from getting out?

Even if he is a lot poorer than he claims, he is still rich compared to what we normally consider rich vs poor. I'm not sure why we would suddenly change the baseline in this particular case. If you want to claim he isn't as rich as he claims, then then I'm not disputing that at all (I haven't a clue), but to claim he isn't rich does not align with existing evidence without fiddling with how we define rich and poor i…

Whether or not he is rich tells you little unless you subtract out the effect of all of his inherited wealth.

Having, say $300 million sounds like a lot. But if you inherited $700 million (as Trump likely did), having only $300 left today is a catastrophic failure.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#462

Post by shitgoose »

tempguy9999 wrote: post #225
polotics wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so easy to distinguish the drunken master from the drunk. They walk the same.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

just 6 bankruptcies? that is pretty good rate for the number of businesses he started.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#463

Post by fredophile »

Izkata wrote: post #325
cestith wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two things China has been doing for years that the WTO hasn't put an end to. The stated goals of the trade war include stopping those, which I can - as anything but a fan of anything to do with Trump - actually agree need to stop. I'm far from certain the scale and breadth of tariffs involved are necessary to stop them, but I agree those two practices need to stop. One of those is outright IP theft. One esp…

One of the things he campaigned on in 2016 was bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US for low-skilled workers. I can see that being a third thing this could possibly help.

The tariffs include raw materials. What happens to the existing manufacturers that can no longer make a profit because the steel and aluminum that they've been buying costs more now?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#464

Post by rebuilder »

repolfx wrote: post #386
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

It's accurate. The Federal government in theory answers to the President or at least Congress. But the comment was discussing people in the government who work directly and quietly against government policy, to 'moderate' it. The notion of civil servants found many layers down the hierarchy who have their own agenda and ignore orders from the top is the notion of the deep state.

Not exactly, the "deep state" implies a co-ordinated organisation.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#465

Post by malandrew »

opportune wrote: post #426
8ytecoder wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all predicting a crash is a fool’s errand. It as much about emotions as it is about fundamentals. There’s a perfectly valid explanation for the valuation of Startups and the availability of capital for startups in the last 9 or so years. After 2008 crash, markets were stagnant until 2012. At the same time capital was being eased by govts worldwide. This capital has to flow somewhere. Tech startups were ripe…

I am pretty sure recessions will at least be good for ridesharing companies, since they will get more drivers, which will lower driver pay. Since they can treat the prices consumers are willing to pay as sticky, this could help them solve profitability issues. I am not sure how much a recession would affect demand or consumers' willingness to spend on ridesharing though, but I think overall a recession is actually go…

This is exactly what has happened in Brazil.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#466

Post by 0xffff2 »

paganel wrote: post #301
throwaway5752 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…

Back in 2008, just after the Lehman collapse had happened and when money-market funds had gone bellow 0 (I think in late October), I predicted that there was a very great chance to have a world war in the next decade because of that ongoing crisis. Fortunately it looks like I was wrong, but it also looks that “liberal democracy” is on its way out in many former bastions of said democracy. I fear that a new nasty rece…

War with whom over what exactly? Maybe it's just a failure of imagination on my part, but I really can't picture a scenario that leads to another world war, even in today's relatively unstable political climate.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#467

Post by pessimizer »

adventured wrote: post #133
throwaway5752 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…

> The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. That hasn't been exhausted even in the slightest. The Fed has the exact same tool at its disposal as it did in 2008: it controls the global reserve currency and can run an annual trillion dollar QE program for years as necessary, forcing the rest of the world to partially foot the bill of that QE program to the benefit of…

> The Fed took rates to zero for seven years

And it can't do that as effectively again. Treasury bonds were at 8% back then, now they're at 4%.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#468

Post by mdorazio »

opportune wrote: post #426
8ytecoder wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all predicting a crash is a fool’s errand. It as much about emotions as it is about fundamentals. There’s a perfectly valid explanation for the valuation of Startups and the availability of capital for startups in the last 9 or so years. After 2008 crash, markets were stagnant until 2012. At the same time capital was being eased by govts worldwide. This capital has to flow somewhere. Tech startups were ripe…

I am pretty sure recessions will at least be good for ridesharing companies, since they will get more drivers, which will lower driver pay. Since they can treat the prices consumers are willing to pay as sticky, this could help them solve profitability issues. I am not sure how much a recession would affect demand or consumers' willingness to spend on ridesharing though, but I think overall a recession is actually go…

I'm not convinced a recession would be good for ridesharing companies. In a lot of places today, using Uber or Lyft is significantly more expensive than driving yourself on a per-mile basis, and way more expensive than alternatives like public transit. In a recession scenario where people are losing jobs and tightening personal budgets, it's pretty easy to envision a lot of people taking a hard look at their rideshare expenditures and either deciding to use an alternative or just not go out places nearly as often.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#469

Post by stone-monkey »

JeremyNT wrote: post #265
empath75 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

>the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase)

The deep state AKA someone watched Yes, Minister and wrote an American adaptation.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#470

Post by malandrew »

TearsInTheRain wrote: post #435
notJim wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, is it possible it's a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Definitely, if people collectively start acting more cautiously and spend less the economy will contract.

Economic contraction isn't necessarily a bad thing so long as it is a cautious, thoughtful and controlled contraction that gets rid of the kind of spoilage that festers into a crash.
Post reply on HN