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Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

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461–470 of 629 posts

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prop 13 has nothing to do with real estate price inflation. Its hard to imagine the current real estate inflation in the case where home owners had to pay taxes against the fair market value. In other words, home owners would at least see some value in new construction. As it stands now, there is only downside.

>Its hard to imagine the current real estate inflation in the case where home owners had to pay taxes against the fair market value. Prop 13 exists in California because that's exactly what was happening. Prior to its passage you paid on the assessed value of you house, and it didn't stop prices from double digit percentage increases every year. People who'd owned their homes for decades were being forced to sell bec…

While that sucks, that sort of self-correcting market pressure is in fact required for a healthy real estate market.

Yes, people would have been pushed out as prices increased. But as areas gentrify, there is no guarantee that the farmers and tradespeople who lived there get to stay forever. That's how other markets work.

It sucks to those pushed out, but eventually taxes increase to the point where demand for the area diminishes. Further, since you'd have increased liquidity without Prop 13, people could actually afford to move to other areas so there would be more inventory. As it stands, that isn't happening because people can't afford to move, so the market is locked up. If we didn't have Prop 13, my gut says that the broader Peninsula would not be impacted to nearly the degree it is now (although perhaps SF would because it is so much smaller).

People being forced to sell because their areas taxes increase substantially is an unfortunate, but very necessary thing.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#462

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

Another thing to keep in mind regarding prop 13 is that it also affects commercial real estate - commercial landlords tend to set up a company to own/insure/maintain a building, and then rather than selling the building they just change the beneficial ownership of the company, preserving the low property tax rates. As a homeowner myself I'm being a bit hypocritical here because we bought at a low point in the market…

Yeah, something to the tune of $9B in avoided commercial taxes from stuff like that [1].

[1] http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert...

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#463
post #377

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

It's even worse in Australia, which most properties do not have a yearly property tax. So you pay a 'stamp duty' when you purchase the property, based on a % of the sale price. This means you have people living in Sydney with multi-million dollar properties - which are just modest houses in now-desirable suburbs - who haven't paid any property tax since the 60's, and who can't move anywhere because they'd be up for s…

Aren't 'council rates' just a different name for 'property tax'?

http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/live/residents/rates

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those house owning elderly you're feeling sorry benefitted from the biggest bull market it history. They may have saw 100x gains on their house while many youth will are spending 30-50% of their income on housing if they're lucky to get a good job. If they do, they can look forward to paying entitlements to these elderly people while they themselves may never see the same turn done to them because the system will be…

It's insane. The people who don't work live close to the business districts collecting social security paid for by the people who do work who have to commute in from afar for the privilege. Then the people who don't work vote themselves favorable property tax rules so they don't have to pay their fair share of keeping up the city.

oligarchy at micro level, creating obstacle in path of hard working common people. Prop 13 was created by these very elderly people only, and they are now reaping its benefits while the new generation suffers. Not saying all old people are like that, but this is what it is.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite your persuasive argument, I like it here. The US is broken, politically and socioeconomically. The Senate will block any bills for a constitutional amendment to get money out of politics, and a Constitutional Convention will mean all amendments will be on the line, including the 1st Amendment (libertarians will cry "freeze speech") and 2A (gun owners will cry "the gubmint is taking our guns away"). I really d…

I'm young and I don't want kids. I do not believe that yellow peril is the driving factor in housing costs. Certainly it's a factor, but no one can say how much of a factor it is without solid data. I'm staying, and you can't stop me! :-) Fair enough; its a nice city if you're young and you don't have kids. I think a lot of your criticism of other places has to do with things that don't affect you on a day to day bas…

> I think a lot of your criticism of other places has to do with things that don't affect you on a day to day basis;

When Obama was running for president in 2008, his stump speech included this line (paraphrased): "If a child can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If a senior citizen can't afford his prescription drugs, that makes my life poorer, even if he's not my grandparent."

I would be be living in a city (SF, Portland, Seattle, SD, Austin, Boston, NYC, Chicago, take your pick) with massive social, racial, and economic disparities that make Vancouver look like one of those Nordic wundercountries. I would be living in a city, and a state, and a country, with levels of political dysfunction and gridlock only seen in countries like Korea or Chile. That dysfunction is holding the country back in overall quality-of-life. The rich have magnificent lives, but for the poor, it's hell to live in America. That makes my life poorer, even if I'm making $100K and drive a Tesla P90D with Ludicrous Mode. (That is if I live in a state that hasn't banned Tesla sales!)

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I am sure you paid more in income taxes in London. Which policy do you prefer? In my opinion taxing wealth is always a better idea than taxing income..

Why? Income taxes seems much more predictable. You don't suddenly get a hike in your taxes because your neighborhood got popular.

Taxing income makes it harder for first generation hard working high income earners to purchase a house, whereas real estate gets passed down from generation to generation and increasing its value along the way.. Only making rich people richer..

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#467
post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are proposing to remove taxation on a bull market (property)? This would inflate prices even more, as investors make a run for nice tax-free properties. It doesn't make sense, sorry. You need to remove incentives to invest in property altogether . It's one of the worst and most unproductive markets, and not even a market in practice because everyone needs a home. My personal pope-emperor utopia would forbid compa…

I'm talking about taxes on personal residences, used as residences. I don't particularly want to argue in this post about what taxes might apply to second/third/fourth/investment/etc houses, or about the desirability of using excise taxes to control behavior. In the context of property used as a residence, I'm suggesting that property taxes produce undesirable effects, and that other forms of taxation might potential…

But that's what inflates property markets -- investors buying and selling multiple properties, realtors identifying and driving growth in this or that neighbourhood. London, SF, Sydney or Vancouver are all awash in investment cash for properties, that's what drives prices.

"In the context of property used as a residence", most European countries do not tax first homes, end of story. It doesn't stop prices from growing.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those studies are seriously flawed imo as their methodology is to filter on non-anglicized Chinese names and use that as a proxy for foreign money. That would describe a lot of people that aren't recent immigrants, like me. If anything, those studies show that ethinic-Chinese people are more predisposed to buying a house than renting, even when renting is much cheaper.

seriously flawed is an overstatement; there have been two studies done so far and while the researchers acknowledge the limitations of the method, in aggregate it is considered mostly sound by their peers. But I agree - we should have something a bit more conclusive than 'Chinese names'. But the whole point is that the current provincial government is actively hostile to requiring real estate agents to collect this i…

One of the studies looked at the names of people purchasing in a pricy small neighbourhood. That hardly generalizes to all of vancouver.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#469
post #226
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of thing is true broadly. It's a bit more complicated in California because the South Bay is also very popular and very expensive, but the trendy areas of many downtowns have, over a relatively short period, become very popular with, among others, a certain young & educated demographic that really has turned them into luxury goods. This has arguably long been the case in some places like Manhattan. Going ba…

The Bay Area has been really bad about building, but some of the huge explosions in housing, for example the big towers going up in Redwood City, might finally help alleviate a bit of pressure.

This is largely due to politics. If you were a speculator considering building a rental apartment building, you face:

1) Rent control. (Those cities and counties that don't have it are all considering it.)

2) Requirements that you allocate a percentage of your units as limited to "low income housing", with those units becoming permanently constrained

3) permit costs, neighborhood opposition, and other city-specific barriers

4) high material prices and construction costs (e.g. earthquake and flood codes)

5) high labor costs

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#470

For all these 'bubble' cities (Vancouver, S.F., Seattle, London, ...), I wonder if the bubble ever pops? Are there examples of the prices/avg. income getting so far out of whack that things collapse? http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-hou... Detroit probably experienced a R.E. bubble in the day...

Oh, sure. In the Bay Area, prices drop substantially after every bubble / recession (early 90s, 2000, mid-2000s).
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