UAE to leave OPEC

> The quick cuts and dazzling montages, as well as the dramatic shots of Harris absorbed by a document he’s unearthed, highlighting it suspensefully in tight close-ups, all lend credence to the often-excellent work he does. But it also makes it easy to mask his mistakes. And for someone who takes journalism to heart, his mistakes are big, leading to oversimplification and an occasional lapse in skepticism.

[...]

> In a video that garnered 8.5 million views and which Harris thumbnailed with the words “WE HAVE PROOF,” Harris explores the recent craze over UFO sightings—sorry, UAP sightings, meaning unexplained anomalous phenomena. In passing, he mentions Mick West, who has done excellent work debunking a lot of blurry footage of what is alleged to be high-tech spy drones or aliens.

> But the bulk of the video is spent leering at report after report—a total of 144 are being investigated by the U.S. government right now!—while original music amps up the mystery. The emphasis on evidence over context is key to Harris’ style: flood the space with visuals that keep your attention and elicit questions and only occasionally pull back to explain.

So let's say Iran stops building up massive amounts of missiles, funding these terrorist groups, stops pursuing a nuclear weapon, stops mass killing of its own civilians, and stops helping Russia prosecute its war against Ukraine (we can even leave this optional just to not introduce additional complexities).

What will the United States now have to do on its side as it pertains to Iran?

It's not a claim, it's been reported for years. US foreign exchange reserves are at a 30-year low. Central banks have bought ~900 tonnes of gold in 2025, nearly matching the historic high during the pandemic. Central banks' holdings in gold now surpass US Treasury holdings (and we all know that gold is nearly 5x its price from last year). Poland, Turkey, India, Czech Republic have all been hoarding gold instead of dollars. France repatriated its gold. Saudi Arabia didn't renew their oil-for-tbills protectionist agreement with US in 2024. Big oil deals are now being done in Rupees and Yuan. Canada dumped its US treasuries. BRICS is already operating a new banking system independent of the US dollar. mBridge and CIPS allows China to settle payments with other countries solely in Yuan. Japan made a $75BN swap deal with India to deal in Rupees if it needs to avoid the dollar, with similar deals with Indonesia and Thailand. Japan is also working with UAE on non-dollar oil deals in the future.

> If other countries are actively diversifying from US assets as you claim, why would they still be so hurt by a US financial market downturn?

Because the global economy is one gigantic system of systems standing on top of the US financial system. When the US has a gigantic economic shock it ripples worldwide. But de-dollarization is gradual, so it will be a gradual drawdown in international economies.

> Since when does diversification ADD risk, and how would losses be incurred?

The US is where people put their money because putting it elsewhere was riskier. But now the US might be more risky. So you diversify... to the places that were risky before. So you can only move to risky places. That risk eventually leads to some loss. It's a "least-worst option" situation, but the end result isn't going to be great.

> You'll find plenty of people who want the best models and are pretty price-insensitive

That's now how capitalism works, that's how rich people work. The echo chamber of HN is full of upper-middle-class people with disposable incomes that are happy to waste money to feel emotionally better about their choices. But businesses aren't emotional, they're competitive. They want lower costs and higher profits. That means spending less. If a business can use a model that's 1/6th the price to get approximately the same results, they're going to do that, in order to gain a competitive edge. China is the place you go when you want to cut costs.

Almost all of the complaints I heard while I was in Egypt were about corruption and lack of opportunity. It was more frustration with rampant nepotism/cronyism and less a desire for liberalism. From the ground, it appeared to be driven by economic forces and not political ideology.

In fact, many Egyptian men that I spoke to made the argument for the continued oppression of women (e.g. the full burqa and absence from work). In general, the populace was decidedly anti-liberal.

The election of the Muslim Brotherhood happened after I left the country, but it was no surprise to me at all. The fact that they attempted to change the constitution so quickly after their victory was unwise, and the subsequent coup by the West was just as unsurprising.