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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

451–460 of 631 posts

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#451
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>float a fairly small issuance SpaceX are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem small a % for the valuation target. However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1] There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling int…

I think you have to temper the skepticism a bit though. SpaceX has dramatically lowered the cost of launching things into space. They are still the leader here. They can put a kg into orbit cheaper than anyone, even heavily subsidized state operations (EU and China). Their order book continues to be full. Every single launch vehicle they roll off the line was pre-sold years ago, including its re-use flights. I agree…

Tesla IPO'd at 1.7B and is worth 1.4T today. Giving you the benefit of doubt since it would be closer to a 1000x gain rather than the 100x gain that you didn't buy right at IPO, I will point out that there's a world's difference buying in at 1.7B, because there's still room for the stock to 1000x, but there's not much gain to be had buying in at 1.7T valuation.

Even the most highly company in the world Nvidia is less than 3x that valuation, so it's not a good comparison with Tesla's IPO.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#452
Starship is the biggest scam in the history of spaceflight, it was never about getting to the moon or mars or even towards other points on Earth (or space tourism) but lowering the cost of sending military and other dual use technologies to Low Earth Orbit.

Starlink is close to causing the kessler syndrome. https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3...

When I was young and naive I believed Elon, at least I've figured out his shtick now, plus his connections with that man.

Regulate them.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I think that valuing businesses by their expected growth is doing really bad things to our society. We used to value businesses by their current returns, usually dividends paid to shareholders. And we treated any statements about their future plans as interesting but not something anyone should trust. Now we value stocks on what their price will do in the near future, because the primary return to shareho…

Valuing anything by its expected, long term value is just accurate. You'd consider the longevity of, say, a garment when you purchase it. The fact that a car has a lot of miles in it, and therefore will need replacing earlier, is something that any reasonable person will consider with its valuation. We spend money educating children not because of the value of the knowledge that second, but the expected value in the…

Isn't it much simpler than that? Dividends and profits are taxed. Reinvesting to grow revenue isn't. That's why you see companies doing stock buybacks; prevents them from paying taxes, prevents their shareholders from paying taxes.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#454

Patrick Boyle (fund manager, professor, youtuber) recently discussed this IPO on his channel. Informative and entertaining. https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?is=TGpEdM2Y7sknP-cW

I used to watch him a lot, but he started talking about AI (I work at a big lab) and it was all wrong, so I'm not sure if I can trust his analysis anymore :(

I stopped watching him because I don't understand why a competent finance expert is slinging ads for earbuds and quick meals. Feels like he's just making "Youtube content" rather than anything serious.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They absolutely succeeded because they had a better search engine. Without a doubt. I imagine there’s more than a few folks around here who used shit like askjeeves, altavista, et. al. Google was heads and shoulders better than those, and continued to get better over time. No, I’m no Google fan, but it’s revisionist history to say they didn’t have the best search engine.

Hah. I didn't expect to get downvoted this much. I'm not trying to rewrite history either, but this makes me wonder how deeply the Google lore really affected some people. I'm in my late 30s, so fair enough. I was there, but not really "there" to see what happened. My understanding and memory was that there was good word-of-mouth in the 90s because it was marginally better. By around 2000, the media was strongly push…

Google was not marginally better.

I was orders of magnitude better. It is that simple.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#456
post #295

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

Their technical accomplishments are doubtlessly notable, but does the expected business growth justify this valuation? Honest question, how many things do we really need to send up there that reducing the cost to orbit by 100x will trigger Jevon's paradox and lead to 100x more launches? I suppose "data centers in space" is the current answer but again, I'm suspicious about its feasibility. Barring that, until we have…

> but does the expected business growth justify this valuation?

What was the expected value of investing in a colony in the Americas? It’s very hard to quantify. Most of them failed, but some people got very very rich.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#457
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What's your issue with the Rafah comment? Rafah is probably not 100% gone, but it is basically gone. Majority of the people are gone and it's mostly a pile of rubble. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafah#/media/File:An_aerial_vi... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/15/world/middlee...

[flagged]

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that list has Tesla, which is overvalued by any plausible valuation approach.

Even if Tesla is overvalued, surely 1 example is insufficient to substantiate that mass stupidity is being rewarded. I spent many words explaining that the list of businesses at the top are basically at the top of their game, worldwide.

you wrote "can you provide an example" and I provided an example. If you wanted to say "I think the market mostly does this, with large caveats" then we're in agreement.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#459

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

Hey are absolutely not replacing “legacy” isps and certainly not mobile. Even if they had perfect coverage, sat signals are way too sensitive to obstructions.

No, but they are replacing bad ISPs. I have a relative in Brussels, while there is 10gig fiber on a nearby street, he's stuck on 100/10 coax, and to add insult to injury, Starlink is cheaper.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not true at all. I am confident some companies will make bank with AI. I am also confident xAI is not one of those. It's as if you said "if you don't think Lycos is a good business you don't think search engines can work in general".

I kinda disagree because while most search engines failed and Google succeeded, they did not succeed by simply being a better search engine. This is only further demonstrated by their excellent leverage of Gemini. Google continues to succeed at being Google.

(I don't think your comment deserved the downvotes, it wasn't me)

I think Google _did_ succeed as a better search engine, but ,y point was just that even if you think a company won't do well it does not imply the whole sector won't.

You can consider the example of Nikola/electric trucks, if you disagree on google/search engines :)

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