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Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

stevekrouse.com

451–460 of 486 posts

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hans Moravec introduced the idea of the "landscape of human competence" , a topology representing the peaks and valleys of human capabilities. Art, writing, coding, game playing. Elevation corresponds to cognitive difficulty, and the landscape maps to everything humans are capable of doing. AI is represented as the rising waterline - when Moravec created the idea, AI was more or less constrained to a few scattered la…

While a 2 dimensional projection of intelligence may be a satisfying rhetorical device, I think it’s an extremely mathematically naive interpretation. Not only is intelligence probably most accurately modeled as something extremely high dimensional, it’s probably also extremely nonlinearly traversed by learning methods, both organic and artificial. Not a topology very easily “flooded”. In other words: bull shit.

It wasn't a formal model or a theorem, it was an observation about reality. Humans are indeed gradually being overtaken on almost all fronts by AI. But by all means, if you want to take issue with Moravec's framing of the issue, feel free.

Explaining it as something like "realizable instantiation of physical computation occurring in the universe mapping to an ultra-sparse, discrete point cloud embedded in the Euclidean parameter space of all computable functions" could definitely be more precise, but you're either going to need a topology like a landscape or a bumpy sphere to visualize it, and then you're going to need to spend more time showing the effects of things like scaling laws, available compute, where the known boundaries of human intelligence lie, and so on, and so forth, and by then you've lost everyone, probably even the ML professor.

It's a good enough metaphor that maps to a real thing.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#452
I think what people don't realize is that rent and the mortgage isn't paid through art. It's paid through boring, important work that is mostly uncreative and requires precision. A lot of people don't really care about doing anything innovative, they just want to do something to get money to sustain their life. The same goes for businesses.

What a lot of people don't realize about software is that it is one of the few industries that offered a means to greatly improve your standard of living without requiring a formal degree.

AI just one-shotted that kind of work. There will always be a place for humans to do creative things, but there won't be a place for average people to make a living.

Example - look at animated movies. In the past studios hired hundreds of people to draw the movie. Now, its nearly all automated with software.

The need for human artistic ability for commercial work is nearly gone, and only left for nice to have products.

In 5 years we will see the same for software. It will be much faster than what happened to art because software is already in nearly every aspect of life.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much is OpenAI paying you for this

Absolutely nothing. I have active subscriptions for both. Claude is better at FE stuff. Codex is better at actual programming.

How is FE not actual programming? I spend less time on FE than I once did, but it has presented some of the most interesting programming challenges I've encountered in my career. It's a large technical space, rich with 'actual' programming to be done.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#454
post #129

Remember Deep Thought, the greatest computer ever built that spent 7.5 million years computing the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything? The answer was 42, perfectly correct, utterly useless because nobody understood the question they were asking. That's what happens when you hand everything to a machine without understanding the problem yourself. AI can give you correct answers all d…

> AI can give you correct answers all day long, but if you don't understand what you're building, you'll end up just like the people of Magrathea, staring at 42 and wondering what to do with it.

Yeah it's so true. LLM's tell you what you want to hear based on the input you give it. If you know the domain, it's really powerful because it can output what you want it to output at an incredibly fast rate. If you don't, you're basically rolling the dice on what it gives you. The idea that programmers are now useless because it can output something is hilariously wrong. The quality of the input has a direct impact on the quality of the output, meaning people with domain expertise (i.e. software developers) is a crucial component to its utility. In other words, vibe coding is useless unless the viber has the correct vibes. Or in other other words, being a good programmer is fundamental to the technology producing useful results. As such, we aren't going to see a total replacement of software developers, but rather that good software developers will increase their productive output.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While a 2 dimensional projection of intelligence may be a satisfying rhetorical device, I think it’s an extremely mathematically naive interpretation. Not only is intelligence probably most accurately modeled as something extremely high dimensional, it’s probably also extremely nonlinearly traversed by learning methods, both organic and artificial. Not a topology very easily “flooded”. In other words: bull shit.

It wasn't a formal model or a theorem, it was an observation about reality. Humans are indeed gradually being overtaken on almost all fronts by AI. But by all means, if you want to take issue with Moravec's framing of the issue, feel free. Explaining it as something like "realizable instantiation of physical computation occurring in the universe mapping to an ultra-sparse, discrete point cloud embedded in the Euclide…

> It's a good enough metaphor that maps to a real thing.

My entire point, which I’m not sure you addressed is that no, it’s not a good metaphor. Water “floods” a 3d topology in a predictable manner with regards to the volume the topology can contain. The entire argument is that progress is observable, predictable, and limitless, and the “islands” are a rhetorical device. My argument was turning the rhetorical device around and pointing out that we know so little about intelligence and AI that describing it in this way is not meaningful beyond sounding intellectual.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#456
> unless you believe in magic, it's only a matter of time until we reach the point at which machine intelligence is indistinguishable from human intelligence.

I'm sure it will be possible, but it may well be very expensive. If it is, why would anyone spend the resources?

AI evolution will certainly follow the money, which is not necessarily the same as the path to AGI.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#457
post #381

> unless you believe in magic, it's only a matter of time until we reach the point at which machine intelligence is indistinguishable from human intelligence I find this flippancy about the greatest mystery in the universe extremely arrogant and incurious and wish it wouldn't be so prevalent.

In theory a computer should be able to model any physical process so I do agree it's only a matter of time. That said I don't think I will be alive to see it honestly. The current tech won't get us there just like the steam engine or the internal combustion engine didn't get us to the Moon. And getting to AGI is probably more like getting to Mars.

Considering we can only approximate irrational numbers, I’m not sure that’s a given. Maybe we’ll have a breakthrough with some type of analog computing, but we could also just hit physical limits on energy or precision.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#458
It's a horrific article that starts off wrong by equating specification with code. In reality, the relevance of a specification comes with substantial abstraction that its author doesn't care about. The goodness of a spec is not just from what is defined, but also from what is left out. Code on the other hand leaves nothing out, unless you get into compiler level optimizations. The two are not the same.

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#459
post #381

> unless you believe in magic, it's only a matter of time until we reach the point at which machine intelligence is indistinguishable from human intelligence I find this flippancy about the greatest mystery in the universe extremely arrogant and incurious and wish it wouldn't be so prevalent.

In theory a computer should be able to model any physical process so I do agree it's only a matter of time. That said I don't think I will be alive to see it honestly. The current tech won't get us there just like the steam engine or the internal combustion engine didn't get us to the Moon. And getting to AGI is probably more like getting to Mars.

> In theory a computer should be able to model any physical process

Wait, which theory is that? In church turing theory the computer can compute any computable function.

Why do we think that the computer can model any physical process?

Or are we suggesting that you can build a computer out of whatever physical process you want to model?

Re: Reports of code's death are greatly exaggerated

#460
post #457
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory a computer should be able to model any physical process so I do agree it's only a matter of time. That said I don't think I will be alive to see it honestly. The current tech won't get us there just like the steam engine or the internal combustion engine didn't get us to the Moon. And getting to AGI is probably more like getting to Mars.

Considering we can only approximate irrational numbers, I’m not sure that’s a given. Maybe we’ll have a breakthrough with some type of analog computing, but we could also just hit physical limits on energy or precision.

Yeah, church turing suggests that a computer can compute any computable function. Or the universality of computable substrate. Maybe there's a confusion that computation universality implies everything universality?
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