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Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

reuters.com

451–460 of 474 posts

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#451

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Really? How did anywhere get started? Germany ripped off British engineering texts because they had no copyright laws there. America got started taking what was started elsewhere, the same can be said for any country except for Scotland. I think those lovely Chinese people would laugh at your sinophobic 'thinking'. Maybe stay off the corporate media and do your own research. Huawei are an amazing company, all of thei…

> the same can be said for any country except for Scotland. Found the Scottish shill. Big whiskey won't rule the world forever, you know!

It's whisky, not whiskey!!!

I am an English person exiled in Scotland, and you would be amazed at the industrial heritage here. Scotland was once used by England to outsource manufacturing, much like how China fills that role now. Shipbuilding got too expensive in England, so the folks on the Clyde provided a better deal. It was how globalisation got started.

I have heard it said that Scottish people invented 'everything', and, after a tour of the museum full of ships, trains, trams, bicycles, cars and much else, I am not going to object to the wild claim, particularly since I am outnumbered up here. Scotland is a very friendly place, but I tell people I am from this little country that can be found south of the border, asking them not to judge me!

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#452

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Because the continued survival of civilization depends on leaving fossil fuel in the ground. If the transition isn't fast enough then we will have horrible, lethal shortages, but that's still better than the worst climate scenarios.

Closing Groningen didn't leave fossil in the ground. It took LNG from US and gas from Norway out of the ground instead. The decision to stop using fossil fuels is not tied to the decision to stop one of the sources of fossil fuels. They're divorced. Stopping fossil fuels requires investments in alternatives, and price mechanisms that disfavour fossils. Absent those mechanisms, closing one source of fossil just shifts…

> Closing Groningen didn't leave fossil in the ground. It took LNG from US and gas from Norway out of the ground instead.

That was getting out of the ground and burned by someone anyway.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#453

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The only direct thing we (the Netherlands) can do to prevent carastrophic climate change is to leave fossil fuels on our territory in the ground. Everything else is indirect.

No, the only direct thing the Netherlands can do is decarbonise the economy. Shifting sources of carbon to outside the country is just passing the buck.

Decarbonising is indirect. Once it gets out of the ground, it will be turned into CO2 by someone, somewhere.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#454

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No I don't think so. The oil industry is very good at discovering and developing resources previously thought to be out of reach. People have been talking about peak oil for decades, as long as I can remember, and it never happened. I think we're technologically capable of extracting more oil, coal, and gas than we would ever want to. We would cook ourselves with the damage we'd do to the climate. I think that's the…

Conventional oil actually peaked around 2005–2006, but the shale oil revolution in the U.S. and technological advances have certainly postponed peak oil itself. Here comes the kicker, though: we obviously extracted the easy-to-access resources first. While there may be counterexamples, looking at ore grades makes it clear that this is not particular to oil. What happens next is that the economics of the wells are get…

I think your analysis is US-centric. I don't think non-shale oil has peaked yet globally.

What you say about the economics getting worse and lower EROI may be true. It certainly seems like common sense. There are some counter-examples though.

The inflation adjusted cost of extracting oil from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada has actually decreased over time, not increased.

But generally I'd expect increasing cost of extraction to be the norm.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only direct thing we (the Netherlands) can do to prevent carastrophic climate change is to leave fossil fuels on our territory in the ground. Everything else is indirect.

I know this is an unfathomable concept, but to actually "leave fossil fuels [...] in the ground" you have to stop using fossil fuels . Burning fossil fuels someone else refused to leave in the ground means--surprisingly--that fossil fuels weren't left in the ground after all. And it turns out that we actually live on a shared planet with a common atmosphere; sourcing your fuels from abroad does nothing to prevent cli…

> I know this is an unfathomable concept, but to actually "leave fossil fuels [...] in the ground" you have to stop using fossil fuels.

Obviously not, as we're closing these fields and haven't stopped yet. Someone will have to stop using it, yes.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#456
post #430

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> It's not that easy, and the 2025 blackout good evidence of that. Renewables need a grid that's engineered for them and that require significative investments. The outage in spain had multiple complex causes. While the grid had a rather routine instability/oscillation on-going during time of the incident, the actual point-of-no-return was completely non-technical: Prices crossed into the negatives, which caused gene…

Very timely, the final report has been released today. I hadn't read the document you referenced, and I admit don't have the prior knowledge, nor the time, to fully understand all the implications of what it says. My opinion is then the result of reading and listening a variety of experts and news sources, and it will have some biases, for sure. Still, I have skimmed the final report to see if there was something tha…

I have not read the report yet, but in another thread someone gave a very plausible explanation of what happened.

The high levels of renewable energy happened to contribute to this incident, but not because of something inherent in renewable energy. All renewable energy sources are connected to the grid through inverters, and in Spain most of these inverters do not use an adequate control policy, i.e. they do not compensate the phase fluctuations of the grid, like the synchronous electromechanical generators do (i.e. they do not generate an appropriate amount of reactive power for compensation).

Technically it is easy to implement such control policies in all solid-state inverters, but it was not done in Spain because there were no incentives, i.e. there were no regulations specifying how the inverters connected to the grid should behave, otherwise than disconnecting when the frequency went outside a permissible range.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#457
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that easy, and the 2025 blackout good evidence of that. Renewables need a grid that's engineered for them and that require significative investments. Without them, closing power plants (of any kind) is, IMO, nonsensical. Ironically, Spain has plenty of Uranium, but there is an environmental law that doesn't allow its mining. https://alpoma.medium.com/uranium-in-spain-8ef975763257 This country is crazy.

Please tell me how renewables cause a lack of reactive power. Which was the source of the Iberian blackout. All reasonable grids already force renewables to handle reactive power if they want to connect, like they do for all electricity generation. It is a trivial expense, but still an expense so no one does it unless forced.

In another thread that comments the report it was said that most inverters used in Spain for the renewable energy sources do not implement a control policy to generate an adequate reactive power to compensate the phase fluctuations of the grid, like a synchronous electromechanical generator would do. The inverters only disconnected from the grid when the frequency went outside the permitted range.

Ensuring that the inverters produce compensating reactive power would have been easy to do, but it was not done simply because there were no regulations that requested this. Obviously, as a consequence of the report, this is likely to change.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#458
post #396

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Not really - for either system, the transformer substations are the part that's vulnerable to drones. Any munition capable of breaching the outer containment structure of a nuclear power plant (let alone impacting the core, dozens to hundreds of meters further inside) is closer to a bunker buster than a drone. What I'd really like to see though is heavy subsidies for synthetic e-fuel plants running a carbon negative…

Ok, nuclear is a strategic missile target. It's harder to take out renewables and batteries because they are more distributed.

Nuclear could be more distributed too.

The obstacles for small nuclear reactors have not been technical, but the fear that they may be more easily misused.

There are good arguments against nuclear, but not being more distributed is not one of them.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#459
post #355

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> It doesn’t matter how blue you die your hair If your intention is honest engagement with people you disagree with, you should refrain from ad-hominem attacks like this. Work with their arguments, not with their tastes or appearances. If your intention is to ridicule them and convince yourself they are not worth discussing with, then ad-hominem is fine, but not engaging at all is better.

And why wouldn't you condemn grandparent post first? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47439266

GP reported on an opinion and called it insane. That's not an ad hominem.

There is a difference between judging an opinion and judging a person. If the response had been something like "what is crazy is to think the world can just switch off its dependence on petrol suddenly", I would not have reacted either.

Re: Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence

#460
post #404

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There are already battery chemistries available that do not rely on lithium and drastically reduce the usage of other suplly-contrained inputs. Especially for stationary storage (where energy density and weight are not much of a concern) there is a wide array of technologies already available and in development. And as you yourself say: once a battery has been built, it simply exists. There is a very gradual deterior…

These need to be available in enormous quantities, though. Are they? Who produces them? Please tell me that it is not China and that they don't come with a firmware that may or may not have remotely exploitable rootkits. The road from a lab discovery through a working prototype to mass-deployable tech usually takes decades, especially in devices which pack a tremendous amount of energy.

Indeed, at least 2 Chinese companies (CATL and BYD) already have in mass production sodium-ion batteries, including a 50 MWh model for stationary storage.

Using lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage is a historical accident, because using lithium makes sense only in mobile applications where weight is essential.

For new installations, sustainable alternatives, like sodium-ion batteries, should be preferred.

In the past there have been many companies in various countries, including Australia, UK and USA, which have claimed that they are able to make very high capacity flow batteries for stationary storage, based on various chemistries, e.g. vanadium-vanadium or bromine-sulfur. A few such batteries have been installed at various customers.

I do not know what went wrong with flow batteries. They have bad weight, similar to the lead-acid batteries, but that is irrelevant for stationary batteries. Otherwise they should be the best batteries for stationary applications, because they have 3 essential advantages over other batteries. Their energy and their power are not coupled as in normal batteries, but they can be scaled independently, i.e. for a given power (which is determined by electrode area) in a flow battery the stored energy can be made arbitrarily large, because it is determined by the volume of a couple of tanks where liquid electrolytes are stored. The second advantage is that the auto-discharge when the battery is not used can be almost null, because the 2 electrolytes can be stored in separate tanks, preventing any reaction between them. The third advantage is that the solid electrodes do not take part in the chemical reaction, so they are not damaged by a charge/discharge cycle, so they can have a very long life.

Despite the advantages, none of the many kinds of flow batteries that have been proposed has been a commercial success and it appears that the companies producing them have lied about the problems that might plague them.

I have not seen any published information about which were their problems, but I assume that a likely cause was the separator membrane that stays between the 2 liquid electrolytes, which must selectively allow the passage of certain ions and not of others. Such membranes are expensive and they might have a short lifetime, requiring frequent maintenance. Another possible problem could be caused by secondary reactions leading to solid precipitates from the liquid electrolytes, another possible cause for expensive maintenance.

Regarding the battery firmware, it does not really matter if the batteries are made in China. The history of the last 3 decades has demonstrated that no firmware can be trusted, regardless whether it comes from a company located in USA, in UK, in China or in any other country, so any firmware must be treated with suspicion.

China actually makes a great number of electronic products that are much more trustworthy than almost anything that comes from USA or other western countries, because those products, like it was the norm several decades ago, but no longer today, are accompanied by full hardware documentation, including schematics and PCB layout, which makes it much easier to verify that a malicious firmware would not be able to do damage.

If the European Union or any other countries would be concerned by the security risk posed by malicious firmware, the solution is simple and it does not consist in banning the products of some arbitrarily chosen countries, but in mandating that any product with an embedded computer, regardless of its origin, must provide complete documentation, i.e. schematics and the source program for the firmware, and it should allow the replacement of the firmware. This would be nothing new, as this is how computers, including the IBM PC, were sold in the old times, before the vendors succeeded step by step to incline the balance of power in their favor and in the detriment of their customers.

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