Great, now when are memory prices going to go back to normal?
Don't worry, if it all comes down, you'll be able to buy RAM and GPUs by weight.
OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
451–460 of 620 posts
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#452Earlier quoted context omitted.
> On the one hand you can look at these companies investing and take it as a signal that there is something there (in OpenAI) that's worth investing in. On the other hand all these companies that are investing are basically getting that investment back through spending commitments and such and are just using OpenAI as a proxy for what is essentially buying more revenue for themselves. I don't understand how this is s…
I give you $100 cash and you give me $100 worth of stock in return. Now you give me $100 cash to buy something from me that cost me $80 to produce. I end up with $100 worth of stock in your company which cost me only $80. No? NVIDIA gross margins lately are like 75%, so it's more like you give me $100 to buy something from me that cost me $25 to produce, hence I end up with $100 worth of stock in your company and it…
In that case, you spent $80 to produce an item and exchanged it for $100 worth of their stock.
Now if you check, these companies selling their stock like this tend to have large amounts of debt. If their stock becomes worthless, you just wasted $80 producing an item that their creditors have first dibs on. And liquidating your shares immediately to ensure your gain, would weigh on their stock's value, potentially to the point where their stock would be only $80 worth, and you wouldn't be gaining anything anymore. Your earnings would then tank, alongside them.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#453[flagged]
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#454Earlier quoted context omitted.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
“In December, Gemini traffic increased by 28.4% month-over-month, while ChatGPT traffic decreased by 5.6%” https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chatgpt-vs-gemini-web... "What's you number one piece of hiring advice?" "Hire for slope, not Y-intercept. This is actually my number one piece of life advice." -@sama, who I’m generally a big fan of. But the job is now harder
Or maybe hire for 2nd (acceleration) or even 3rd (jerk) derivative.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#455Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually it is the other way around; every upstart claims that their invention is the mostest revolutionariest thing ever. 99.9% of them are not. The nay sayers are right most of the time. Recent high-profile examples include Segway, NFT, Crypto as a whole, pre-tranformers voice assistants and various "Design Thinking" projects like those Amazon prime buttons.
My grandma (and my parents, by the way) have never heard of Segway, NFTs, or crypto, but they use ChatGPT all the time.
That's alright, but that was not about whether chatbots will succeed or fail.
It was about countering dismissal of all voices of caution as blind dismissal.
Saying X succeeded while people were saying it will fail is just survivorship bias.
Also your parents and grandpa did indeed hear about the Segway.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#456Earlier quoted context omitted.
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…
When models get cheaper to run for OpenAI, they also get cheaper for everyone else. It gets commoditized. AI might be able to do more, but most people aren’t going to pay for a thing they could get for free. See the many models on Huggingface as examples of that. And as the number of things AI is “good enough” at increases, the list of things on the frontier that people will want to pay OpenAI for shrinks. Even if Op…
> get cheaper to run
Irrelevant. The model is the moat
> most companies don’t care about that.
Wrong. They will use the model that gives them an edge. If they are using a PhD but their competitors are using Einstein, they will lose.
> center a div
For sure a common use case, but is bot what the CEO is concerned about with AI.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#457Earlier quoted context omitted.
We said all the same shit about VR, dude. Even had a global pandemic show up to boost everyone's interest in the key market of telepresence. Turns out the merry go round can stop abruptly.
No. Like many of us, I never saw much value in VR. LLMs have undeniable value that is general and broad. Now, does that mean OpenAI has a moat? No, it does not.
We also said that about VR.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#458Earlier quoted context omitted.
Inference is already profitable (training is not)
So what. In a highly competitive industry they can't keep selling inference unless they continually train better models. It's like saying my airline is profitable if you don't count the cost of buying new airplanes.
This is a completely new market and players are currently burning money in order to capture market share. The money will stop flowing in at some point, but until then, you can’t compare it to an industry like aviation which is extremely mature and heavily optimized.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#459Earlier quoted context omitted.
For example, I just asked ChatGPT "The boat wash is 50 meters down the street. Should I drive, sail, or walk there to get my yacht detailed?" and it recommended walking. I'm sure with a tiny bit more effort, OpenAI could patch it to the point where it's a lot harder to confuse with this specific flavor of problem, but it doesn't alter the overall shape.
This question is obviously ambiguous. The context here on HN includes "questions LLMs are stupid about, I mention boat wash, clearly you should take the boat to the boat wash." But this question posed to humans is plenty ambiguous because it doesn't specify whether you need to get to the boat or not, and whether or not the boat is at the wash already. ChatGPT Free Tier handles the ambiguity, note the finishing remark…
You can make the argument that the boat variant is ambiguous (but a stretch), it's really not relevant since the point was revealing the underlying failure mode is unchanged, just concealed now.
The original car question is not ambiguous at all. And the specific responses to the car question weren't even concerned with ambiguity at all, the logic was borderline LLM psychosis in some examples like you'd see in GPT 3.5 but papered over by the well-spoken "intelligence" of a modern SOTA model.