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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

451–460 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. Democrat policies polled better than Republican policies at the last election.

Its more accurate to say that leftist policies polled well, which they always do. I think the main issue is that people don't really trust democrats to do anything they say they want to do.

Hilary and Kamala also polled well... Pretty sure all these polls prove is that polls are not reliable.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#452
post #113

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Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

Weather prediction is the more apt analogy here. Astrology is total bullshit, while economics and weather is an attempt to predict the chaos.

Right, but what people miss is that some people (usually not academic economists) are able to predict the economy with good levels of accuracy. It is not hard, there is a ton of data, the problem is that you have to drop your own personal interest in politics...for 99.99% of people feeling politically validated is more important than being right on the economy.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#453
post #377

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Why did you feel the need to use an LLM to compose this comment?

English is not my native language, and I wanted to clean up the grammar.

That's a great reason. I didn't pick up on usage of AI, it reads naturally.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#455

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As a German, I am generally cautious about drawing hasty parallels with the Holocaust, but I must admit: now that you mention it, the Sturmabteilung and the Schutzstaffel probably began their work in the streets of the country in a similar way to ICE today. """ Sturmabteilung (SA) The SA was formed in 1921 as the paramilitary fighting organization of the NSDAP and protected party events. After 1933, under Ernst Röhm,…

> As a German, I am generally cautious about drawing hasty parallels with the Holocaust, The drawings are not about the holocaust, but the fascism which has led to that point. The holocaust started nearly a decade after Hitler taking power. And I don't think anyone believes Trump or his puppet masters are seriously after an actual genocide; everything else and the victims they accept as "necessary" for their goals ar…

Anti jew laws and violence started literally as he took power. They did not had mechanics of it down yet, but the intention and first attempts were present.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#456
post #323

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

One of the main reasons we end up with populist leaders who make decisions not in the interest of their population, but in service of their own pursuit of power, is social media and the attention economy. If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, media incentives would change. Journalism would become more thorough and responsible, rather than optimized for outr…

> If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds,

The age groups who spend the most time on TikTok and Instagram are the least likely to have voted for this administration.

There were populist demagogues getting elected before social media and cell phones, too. This isn’t a modern thing.

I know everyone wants to use this moment in politics to blame their own pet peeves, but blaming social media junkies for this election just isn’t consistent.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#457

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I don't buy this - Harris had a big bump in the polls as soon as she entered the race and I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything . This bullshit that American's won't vote for a woman is just an excuse not to run women and to deflect blame towards a culture war issue and away from the fact that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. I voted for Harris, I even canvased for her, but…

You know what’s interesting though is I think that a Republican woman would be unbeatable. Many Democrats would be salivating at the historical opportunity.

A woman would never win the Republican primary as long as MAGA dominates the right.

And Democrats aren't so broadly driven by identity politics that a Republican candidate merely being a woman would attract significant Democratic defectors. She would still have to be somewhat inspiring/charismatic, fairly centrist, and probably pro-choice.

Even in the peak-"woke" Democratic primary of 2020, all the women lost to two old white men.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.

FOX News, after their scandal with Dominion, should have been broken down or even shutdown. They deliberately disinformed the public, there is blatant evidence that the news anchors were aware that they were lying. Not just bending facts a little or opining, but knowingly and purposefully lying. The pretext of freedom of expression, and more narrowly freedom of press should not *continue* to apply to businesses/indiv…

Oh the Murdoch Empire is a more than deft hand at escaping any meaningful comeuppance. As I recall, in a court case brought against them by Prince Harry, they just folded and accepted they were guilty.

I believe that admission was because ending the trial and eating the judgement, was less damaging than allowing the light of discovery and trial ingress into their workings.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Much like I think if any Dem other than Hillary Clinton ran against Trump for his winning term 1, I think if the Dems had a proper primary process for this last election they'd probably have picked somebody who'd also have won. That said, I'm not sure being a woman was worse than being from CA or black with a solid chunk of the electorate. (I'm reminded of how some of my own relatives seemed to want to avoid visiting…

They didn’t even have a proper primary with Hillary. She was anointed by the DNC to start and the party itself worked against other candidates any way it could to make sure she “won”. Completely ignoring the fact that she was the opposite of any candidate that might snag a single vote from the republicans, and unlikable among most dem voters themselves. Throw in the fact that they were so convinced of a victory that Trump flipped blue states by virtue of showing up versus ignoring them on the basis of “who cares, they’ll vote for me anyway”, and it was a recipe for disaster.

Had the DNC allowed Bernie Sanders to win, or had Biden not picked his running mate on the basis of a Berkeley focus group where the participants were trying to out-virtue each other, we would live in a very different world.

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