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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#451
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate this writing as well. Is not about technology and finance? The reporter writes as if it is a novel.

The sheer number of em dashes in the text suggest to me that the reporter didn't write anything, ChatGPT did.

ChatGPT learned to use em dashes from somewhere. They were widely used before LLMs.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would probably take like 3 to 5 years to catch up with the benefit of hindsight and existing talent and tools? Are you talking about TSMC - because that is a single, albiet primary, node in a supply chain, that's also what you have to replicate. AMSL is another vital node. So many people with "it's just a factory, how hard can it be". The answer is "VERY", as a few endavours have found out already - and they wil…

Do you mean AMSL? There was a great video recently on the company + techniques used for cutting-edge lithography. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0

ha, yes I did. - luckily still in the edit window

I was expecting an Asianometry video from your link

https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry

Pure Silicon Crystals for the wafer is another very specialist supplier you can't just decide to become - your local gravity will probably have an effect you need to tune into

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#453
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the M5 in the iPad Pro outperforms every chip made by EVERYONE else in the world No, it does not. The core inside the M5 is faster than every other core design in single-threaded burst performance. That is common for small machines with a low core count and no hyperthreading. The chip itself does not outperform every other chip in the world, nor is it 10x more efficient than the 9950X3D. That's not even napkin math…

The 9950X3D has a TDP of 170 watts. M5 has an estimated TDP of around 20 watts. The comparison point was for single core performance, which certainly makes the TDP comparison unfair if interpreted together. The numbers are ballpark-correct. No one else is remotely close to Apple. Apple could stop developing chips for four years, and it’s very likely they would still ship the most efficient core architecture, and sit…

Is Snapdragon with the X2 Elite so far behind?

I doubt it, particularly not four years.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#454

This all is just spotlighting the weakness of NVIDIA, AMD, Apple, Microsoft, etc. They all avoided manufacturing in-house for so long and now they're fighting for fab time. Intel on the other hand is interesting...

It's a trade-off. If it's worked for this long, it was probably a good idea.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#455
post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Samsung (or any other fab) were to make Apple chips they wouldn’t learn anything that a good microscope couldn’t already tell them. Samsung still makes the displays and the cameras for most iPhones. They continued to do business even while engaged in legal action. That they are still competitors wont stop them doing business when it suits them. Business doesn’t care about pride or loyalty; only money.

I believe just locking at a chip, does not enable you to to make such a chip, otherwise china would not be behind. TSMC already makes them in their labs. They could tweak a few things, claim it is novel and just sell to the competition. (Apple would fight back of course with all they have and TSMC reputation would take damage)

Looking at a chip makes it easier, but it is still millions (or billions in the case of a CPU) of dollars for engineers to figure it all out. That doesn't get you to understand what was done or why so 2-3 years latter you can make that chip but they have now moved on to a faster/better version and you are behind. And of course if you try this Apple (or whoever you copy) will have plenty of engineers who can look at your chip and in just a few hours decide there is enough to have lawyers sue you for the copy.

China already has plenty of engineers who can make a chip, and experience with making CPUs. ARM licenses a lot of useful things for making a CPU (I don't know what). They would be better off in the long run making the chips they all ready understand better. Which is something they are doing. It takes longer and costs more, but because they understand they can also customize the next chip for something they think is good - if they are right they can be ahead of everyone else.

What China is lacking is the fabs to make a CPU. They have made good progress in building them, but there is a lot of technology that isn't in the chip that is needed to make a chip.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't Apple recently made a deal with Intel?

Trust is not binary — it is a spectrum. Anyone making a claim that trust will be 0% based on a single thing is obviously oversimplifying the situation. Trust is built on behavior, reputation, time, repeatability, etc. Trust is subjective and relative. If Alice doesn’t trust Eve, that doesn’t automatically mean that Bob doesn’t trust Eve. That usually requires both Alice and Bob to similar experiences or Bob must have…

Trust also changes over time. One CEO change and a company can change overnight thus causing all trust to evaporate. Normally CEOs are aware of this and don't change things and so trust transfers, but one mistake and you lose trust. It takes a lot to build back trust, but a few years of proving worthy of trust and it starts to come back. If your competitors violates trust in the mean time customers are more likely to risk you, and if you prove trustworthy the customers are likely to stay.

There are other factors than trust as well - the US government really wants intel fabs to take off and they may be applying pressure that we are not aware of. It could well be that Apple is willing to risk Intel because the US government will buy a lot of macs/iphones but only if they CPU is made in the US. (this would be a smart thing for the US todo for geopolitical reasons)

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia has indeed grown like a monster in the last couple years - 35Bn increase from 23-24 and 70Bn increase from 24-25. Worringly for Nvidia, Apple is producing products people want and are provenly useful, thus a vast majority of its value is solid, so revenue streams for fabs Apple uses is solid. Nvidia on the other hand, is producing tangible things of value, GPUs, but which are now largely used in unproven tec…

Calling AI an unproven market is a wild statement. My mother and every employed person around me is using AI backed by Nvidia GPUs in some way or the other on a daily basis.

The AI market is running on VC and hype fumes right now, costing way more than it brings in. Add to that the circular financing, well, statements, in the hundreds of billions of dollars that are treated as contracts instead of empty air, and compare that to Apple, where the money is actually there and profitable, and the comparison makes sense.

It may still be profitable for TSMC to use NVidia to funnel all the juicy VC game money to themselves, but the statement about proven vs unproven revenue stream is true. It'll be gone with the hype, unless something truly market changing comes along quickly, not the incremental change so far. People are not ready to pay the full costs of AI, it's that simple right now.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be a $6000 phone if they built it in America.

Would be Interesting to know if it really would or not. Especially relative to their margins.

That depends on too many factors. Moving all production to the US would greatly reduce prices, since it costs a lot of money to setup a factory, but you amortize that over everything it produces. I don't know how the iphone is produced in China, but I have to believe it is highly automated as well. However moving a factory takes months (at best, China may not allow exporting it at all), and in those months Apply wouldn't be making any iphones, so to do production in the US requires building an all new factory which is going to be expensive.

You can buy modern CPUs made in Iowa - at about $60,000 each. You can buy one from an intel fab (I'm not sure where they are) for under $1000 that is likely better. the Iowa made CPU would be a one-off made under license from Intel. The companies that do this made just enough to prove they can in case Intel fabs are bombed. (I assume this means that you can't actually buy such a CPU if you tried, but they do make them and that is about the cost they would have to charge to break even)

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#459
Which customers have available power capacity to use Blackwell GPUs already shipped? https://www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-enron-so-what-is-it/

  6 million Blackwell GPUs.. have left NVIDIA’s warehouses.. 15.6GW of power is required to make the last four quarters of NVIDIA GPUs sold turn on

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia is famously a pain to work with. Apple vowed never to use their chips, Microsoft and Sony can't get them to make any GPU for their consoles. The only complete package integrator that manages to make a relationship work with Nvidia is Nintendo.

> Apple vowed never to use their chips I thought that was mainly due to bad thermals. I always got the impression that (like Intel) Nvidia only cared about performance, and damn the power consumption.

Nvidia sold defective GPU's that affected every 2007-2008 MacBook Pro. It was a manufacturing defect and every chip was guaranteed to fail. It was a bad look for Apple that cost them millions having to replace logic boards. The defect wasn't corrected for several years leading to some people having multiple logic board replacements.

https://blog.greggant.com/posts/2021/10/13/apple-vs-nvidia-w...

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