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OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

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451–460 of 777 posts

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#451

Surprised they burn cash advertising on Reddit to “make a mini me” version of yourself where you hold your body in your hand. What a waste of AI lol

I believe in OpenAI but they were running turn your cat into studio ghibili ads on Reddit up until a week or 2 ago.

They need a better marketing strategy.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#453

Not sure why they put so much investment into videoSlop and imageSlop. Anthropic seems to be more focused at least.

Because there is only so much programmers and companies will pay for AI coders. The big prizes is AI-generated TikTok.

The entertainment industry is by far the easiest way to tap into global discretionary income.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#454
post #88

For what I use them for, the LLM market has become a two player game, and the players are Anthropic and Google. So I find it quite interesting that OpenAI is still the default assumption of the leader.

What do you use them for?

GPT5.2 Codex is the best coding model right now in benchmarks. I use it exclusively now.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#455
post #396
post #139

AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…

Something nobody's talking about: OpenAI's losses might actually be attractive to certain investors from a tax perspective. Microsoft and other corporate investors can potentially use their share of OpenAI's operating losses to offset their own taxable income through partnership tax treatment. It's basically a tax-advantaged way to fund R&D - you get the loss deductions now while retaining upside optionality later. T…

> OpenAI's losses might actually be attractive to certain investors from a tax perspective.

OpenAI is anyways seeking Govt Bailout for "National Security" reasons. Wow, I earlier scoffed at "Privatize Profits, Socialize Losses", but this appears to now be Standard Operating Procedure in the U.S.

https://www.citizen.org/news/openais-request-for-massive-gov...

So the U.S. Taxpayer will effectively pay for it. And not just the U.S. Taxpayer - due to USD reserve currency status, increasing U.S. debt is effectively shared by the world. Make billionaires richer, make the middle class poor. Make the poor destitute. Make the destitute dead. (All USAID cuts)

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Railroads enabled people and goods to move from one place to another much easier and faster. AI enables people to... produce even more useless slop than before?

At this point I'm taking the word "slop" as a sign meaning "I really didn't think this through and I'm just autocompleting based on a gut feeling and the first word that comes to mind".

That's an easy way out, isn't it?

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#458
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You weren’t around pre Google were you? The only thing Google learned from other search engines is what not to do - like rank based on the number of times a keyword appeared and not to use expensive bespoked servers

I was around pre-Google. Ranking was Google's 5% contribution to it. They stood on the shoulders of people who invented physical server and datacenter infrastructure, Unix/Linux, file systems, databases, error correction, distributed computing, the entire internet infrastructure, modern Ethernet, all kinds of stuff.

Yeah, I remember the moment search engines invented computing, I cannot look at sand the same way anymore /s

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#459
post #139

AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…

> AI is a world-changing technology, just like the railroads were This comparison keeps popping up, and I think it's misleading. The pace of technology uptake is completely different from that of railroads: the user base of ChatGPT alone went from 0 to 200 million in nine months, and it's now- after just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis. Even if you think that railroads and AI are equally impac…

Paid user base or free user base? Because free user base on a very expensive product is next to meaningless.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#460
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no evidence of a technological moat or a competitive advantage in any of these companies. I disagree based on personal experience. OpenAI is a step above in usefulness. Codex and GPT 5.2 Pro have no peers right now. I'm happy to pay them $200/month. I don't use my Google Pro subscription much. Gemini 3.0 Pro spends 1/10th of the time thinking compared to GPT 5.2 Thinking and outputs a worse answer or ignore…

I’m not saying that no company will ever have an advantage. But with the pace of advances slowing, even if others are 6-12 months behind OpenAI, the conclusion is the same. Personally I find GPT 5.2 to be nearly useless for my use case (which is not coding).

Can you give specific examples? I'm super interested to see where it fails.
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