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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#451

Post by senordevnyc »

shubb wrote: post #412
actionfromafar wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone posted this already but a more useful "net worth" is how big of a shock can take without paying multiples on the sticker price. And even homes are now sieving into institutional buyers. https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6d...

Net worth is a funny metric. Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k. Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300 Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

Joe’s net worth is $200k. Why on earth would you value the home at $0?

Net worth = assets - liabilities

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#452

Post by deadbabe »

idiotsecant wrote: post #428
deadbabe wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take care of yourself: exercise, skin care, fashion trends, botox, hair dye, etc. so you do not look 50+ and no one will know the difference.

Can we just pause and consider what happened to this industry where this is the advice. This is the natural consequence of marketing and fundraising completely destroying engineering. It's not about real things anymore. It's about image. It's an industry of carnival barkers turning everything it touches to shit.

The industry had turned to shit long ago when we deviated from the path of the UNIX philosophy and fell into cargo cult frontend programming. We had the most powerful UI in the world, the command line, and we gave it up for pretty pixels and shiny buttons. We have lost what it truly meant to be an engineer, now just look at the kinds of people entering the industry today: No passion for the science, just chasing cash and quick thrills. And you wonder why our interview process has gotten so shallow?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#453

Post by bluGill »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #313
SilverElfin wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does home ownership on its own matter? Net worth is inclusive of housing and assets and debt. And net worth is a direct measure of the wealth that is being built.

Because homes are pretty much the only asset a millenial would have at that time that would have grown over time. a 08-9 graducate wouldn't really have much money to spar for stocks unless they made really lucky bets or happened to mine a fewbitcoin they forgot about. Most all else would have inflated or depreciated.

401k and IRAs is where millennials should have their stocks and those have done very well over the years. There is little point in stocks elsewhere (unless you are very rich) since stocks are for long term investments and those two cover the retirement needs of nearly everyone (except the very rich), and there are few other savings needs people might have that stocks qualify for.

Remember you won't live forever (at least not to current medical knowledge, you can bet otherwise if you want), and you can't take it with you (according to most religions). Thus once you have retirement covered and emergency savings you should be spending everything you earn. You should have enough money left at the end of the month to afford the things you buy at the end of the month, but there is no point in any more, enjoy life with what you earn. (donating to charity counts as enjoying life!)

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#454

Post by CalRobert »

reactordev wrote: post #427
CalRobert wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you save for retirement, you will be outbid for housing by those who are not saving.

And how are those who are not saving, affording to put down money for down payment and closing costs? Saving for retirement doesn’t necessarily mean 401k but you can borrow from your 401k for down payment assistance so you really should be saving for your eventual retirement from day 1.

I meant for rent, and in aggregate.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#455

Post by senordevnyc »

karlshea wrote: post #242
reactordev wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game. I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.

I'm gonna have to hold your hand when I tell you this: when you tell the younger generation to "save" or "invest" they are going to walk away from that conversation knowing they were just speaking with one of the most mind-numbingly naive Olds they're going to encounter in probably the next several months. Please, if you ever want any respect from anyone younger than you ever again in your entire life, do not say tho…

This is so condescending and infantilizing of young people. Of course many of them have it hard. They’re not the first, and they won’t be the last, but they’ll figure it out.

I graduated right before the collapse in 2008, and I’ve spent the last 17 years hustling, scraping, and clawing to make, save, and invest every dollar I could. It wasn’t easy, and after a divorce and a recent layoff, it’s still not. Particularly in one of the most expensive cities in the world, with kids and child support.

I worry a lot about my kids and their future economic prospects. I don’t want them to suffer, but the reality is that suffering comes for all of us, and saving and investing has been good advice for millennia. Blaming others and refusing to take responsibility for your own life and predicament has never been good advice. I hope my kids have the strength of character to resist the learned helplessness you’re offering here.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#456

Post by wmeredith »

protocolture wrote: post #76
mollusc-engine wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I became a USPS mail carrier instead. Certainly less pay but I love being outside and walking. And no Jira, changing the color of that button, or steeping myself in Frank’s eldritch horror code.

>No Jira If I was trying to attract intelligent applicants looking for work outside of software engineering, that would be in the headline.

Genuinely curious: How else would you coordinate a large software project? We have 7 teams of 5 working on the same platform and Jira is fine for what we're doing, but I've been at this almost two decades and I haven't used any of the alternatives.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#457

Post by lotsofpulp »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #449
lotsofpulp wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term incentives for executives compared to dividends. If anything, all the businesses with the most long term growth have done the most buybacks because they are paying the employees in stock, which employees gladly accept because they bet the business will have long term growth. And executive compensation is not vested until business targets are met a few years i…

> There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term incentives for executives compared to dividends. If I am bonused on earnings per share, and I have a button to increase earnings per share mechanically (without needing to increase revenue or decrease costs), why wouldn't I push that button? Can you share some evidence around your statement? i.e. "There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term i…

> If I am bonused on earnings per share, and I have a button to increase earnings per share mechanically (without needing to increase revenue or decrease costs), why wouldn't I push that button?

Examining fantastical scenarios is a waste of time. No one has that button, there is a whole board of directors that votes on these things, and again, compensation is staggered over various performance targets staggered over a number of years. The proxy reports detailing these are easily accessible with an online search.

> Can you share some evidence around your statement? i.e. "There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term incentives for executives compared to dividends."

Reality. The businesses that have the best long term performance over the previous decades are the ones that have done the most buybacks, hence buybacks do not cause short term-ism. It’s just as easy as a business cutting expenses now to juice dividends in the near term, we’ve seen it time and time again with businesses that sacrifice quality and innovation in the short term which eventually cede ground to new businesses.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#458

Post by mc32 »

bequanna wrote: post #50
venturecruelty wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it has anything to do with all of the 10-200% taxes we've levied on random things.

Offshoring (India + LATAM) with a side of h1b. Offshoring is by far the biggest culprit. Plenty of Jr/Mid roles hiring…but not US based.

Offshoring affects the pipeline. That means once people leave the workforce or get promoted there are no locals who’ve the acumen to take over as those roles are overseas. Now you have to hire them H1Bs because you don’t have locals with the requisite experience. Of course managers wonder why there aren’t Americans with experience to fill those roles …

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#459

Post by quickthrowman »

shubb wrote: post #412
actionfromafar wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone posted this already but a more useful "net worth" is how big of a shock can take without paying multiples on the sticker price. And even homes are now sieving into institutional buyers. https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6d...

Net worth is a funny metric. Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k. Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300 Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

> Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

Yeah, because Joe’s net worth is $200,000 and Pete’s is $300

House equity = current value - mortgage balance

You subtracted the mortgage twice, so your math is off by $200,000.00

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#460

Post by bluGill »

goodolddays9090 wrote: post #280
aaronblohowiak wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FI is more valuable than RE. After three years or so I got the itch again and decided to self fund my own thing. Also looking back on around 10 years ago more fondly..

Yeah; I've heard a few people say versions of you get bored if you retire early, and I've soon to be retirees talk about how the people they know who retired to go do nothing just wasted away. I like tech; my challenge now is finding a gig with interesting work and a good work-life balance and p75 pay. That, and knowing when I actually have enough net worth to have more freedom. The problem is you never think it's en…

I know a lot of people who retired early and are not bored. I know other people who went back to work (not always the same job) just because they needed something to do. People are different. If you need a boss to keep you busy doing something then you shouldn't retire. If you can find plenty of things to do in life (hobbies, travel...) then you can retire. Without knowing you I can't say what is right.

Of course your job/boss matters. Some are worse than others.

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