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GPT-5

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Re: GPT-5

#451

Post by koonsolo »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

This confirms my suspicion that we are not at the exponential part of the curve, but the flattening one. It's easier to stay close to your competitors when everyone is at the flat curve of the innovation.

The improvements they make are marginal. How long until the next AI breakthrough? Who can tell? Because last time it took decenia.

Re: GPT-5

#452

Post by j_timberlake »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

I think you're reading way too much into OpenAI bungling its 15-month product lead, but also the whole "1 AGI company will take off" prediction is bad anyway, because it assumes governments would just let that happen. Which they wouldn't, unless the company is really really sneaky or superintelligence happens in the blink of an eye.

Re: GPT-5

#453

Post by gunnaraasen »

beeflet wrote: post #361
highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

Perhaps it is not possible to simulate higher-level intelligence using a stochastic model for predicting text. I am not an AI researcher, but I have friends who do work in the field, and they are not worried about LLM-based AGI because of the diminishing returns on results vs amount of training data required. Maybe this is the bottleneck. Human intelligence is markedly different from LLMs: it requires far fewer examp…

Seems like the real innovation of LLM-based AI models is the creation of a new human-computer interface.

Instead of writing code with exacting parameters, future developers will write human-language descriptions for AI to interpret and convert into a machine representation of the intent. Certainly revolutionary, but not true AGI in the sense of the machine having truly independent agency and consciousness.

In ten years, I expect the primary interface of desktop workstations, mobile phones, etc will be voice prompts for an AI interface. Keyboards will become a power-user interface and only used for highly technical tasks, similar to the way terminal interfaces are currently used to access lower-level systems.

Re: GPT-5

#454

Post by SilasX »

andybak wrote: post #69

Not live for me in the UK. "Try it in ChatGPT" takes me to the normal page and there's no v5 listed in the dropdown.

I just got the same thing in the US too. (Am on the $20/month subscription.)

Re: GPT-5

#455

Post by hodgehog11 »

fdsjgfklsfd wrote: post #444
highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

I think they're just reaching the limits of this architecture and when a new type is invented it will be a much bigger step.

Working in the theory, I can say this is incredibly unlikely. At scale, once appropriately trained, all architectures begin to converge in performance.

It's not architectures that matter anymore, it's unlocking new objectives and modalities that open another axis to scale on.

Re: GPT-5

#456

Post by BryantD »

simonw wrote: post #348

I had preview access for a couple of weeks. I've written up my initial notes so far, focusing on core model characteristics, pricing (extremely competitive) and lessons from the model card (aka as little hype as possible): https://simonwillison.net/2025/Aug/7/gpt-5/

In the interests of gathering these pre-release impressions, here's Ethan Mollick's writeup: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/gpt-5-it-just-does-stuff

Thank you to Simon; your notes are exactly what I was hoping for.

Re: GPT-5

#457

Post by logicchains »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

>It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together

It's natural if you extrapolate from training loss curves; a training process with continually diminishing returns to more training/data is generally not something that suddenly starts producing exponentially bigger improvements.

Re: GPT-5

#458

Post by citizenpaul »

highfrequency wrote: post #331

It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…

Even at the beginning of the year people were still going crazy over new model releases. Now the various model update pages are starting to average times in the months since their last update rather than days/weeks. This is across the board. Not limited to a single model.

Re: GPT-5

#459

Post by atonse »

hrpnk wrote: post #336

They will retire lots of models: GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, GPT-4.5, GPT-4.1-mini, o4-mini, o4-mini-high, o3, o3-pro. https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-release-... "If you open a conversation that used one of these models, ChatGPT will automatically switch it to the closest GPT-5 equivalent." - 4o, 4.1, 4.5, 4.1-mini, o4-mini, or o4-mini-high => GPT-5 - o3 => GPT-5-Thinking - o3-Pro => GPT-5-Pro

Smart way to probably also free up resources that are currently fragmented running those older models. They could all run the latest model and have more capacity.
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