AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more • Hacker News Board

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#451

Post by pwarner » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 1:44 AM UTC

benreesman wrote: post #254

Spivak wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

tl;dr Intel desperately needs an activist investor.

Only if that activist investor acts with decisiveness, vision, long-term goal orientation, and demonstrates consistently high-integrity behavior. What has much more commonly produced good outcomes in such situations is robust public-private partnerships like the ones that produced the semiconductor industry in the first place. Run the list of innovations in strategically key technology and what will you find at one r…

berkshire hathaway

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#452

Post by laborcontract » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:00 AM UTC

IncreasePosts wrote: post #448

johanyc wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They would. The main reason has always been the location. It’s right at the doorstep of China. It’s the same reason when Russia tried to install missile in Cuba, Americans dont like that. Cuba “crisis” is actually a US centric term. Also on east coast of Taiwan, theres a deep waters, submarines can enter pacific ocean much more stealthily. Everything else is just bonus to them. Semiconductors, supporting nationalism,…

South Korea and Japan/Okinawa seem either just as good or better if the US wants to have bases near China. And the US already has 80k troops there

You have to take a look at a map to really understand Taiwan's importance.

Taiwan isn't about military proximity. It's about access shipping access. Try open up a map. Despite China having a vast coastline, they do not have access to the open seas. Every one of their shipping lanes requires passage through another nation's waters.

If a heavy conflict were to erupt, China's supply chains would be cut off via naval blockade. It's a huge risk to China, and one they've attempted to ameliorate via the Belt and Road Initiative.

That changes if they acquire Taiwan. Taiwan's importance is not of offensive, but defensive primacy.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#453

Post by chronci300 » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:08 AM UTC

kulahan wrote: post #356

fishsticks89 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

Ah yes, Taiwán - that famously stable nation with no existential threats to its very existence. I don’t think this is an “if” situation, but rather a “when”. There is no question in my mind - it’s simply too attractive to China. It may not come through all out war, but they will eventually claim what they feel is theirs. They operate on much more manageable time scales.

> Ah yes, Taiwán

If you’re going to use accents, technically it’s Táiwān (ㄊㄞˊㄨㄢ)

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#454

Post by mrheosuper » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:17 AM UTC

Is the whole toolchain in US, or only TSMC ?, how about packaging ?

5%-20% is surprisingly cheap imo.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#455

Post by Nathanba » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:23 AM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #292

benreesman wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel is a great example of the fact that between stupidity and low-integrity behavior as a default, the people in charge fuck up in ways that the man on the street would get right. Defense is starting to get a blank check with fairly bipartisan support for the first time in at least 30-40 years and it's centered on semiconductor supply chains . There has never been a better time to secure the fucking funding, have A…

The climate of uncertainty under Trump inhibits long-term investment, whether in chip fabs, car factories, or anything else. He has reminded us all of something that's really always been a problem: whatever one Congress or one POTUS supports can be undone by the next. Usually opposing parties have had the common sense not to immediately hit the undo button once they take office. E.g., Biden leaving most of Trump's pr…

Trump causes uncertainties in some areas but I would not say that fab investment or factories is one of those areas. The democratic president after Trump has pretty much kept the exact same course as Trump, even going so far as continuing to build the border wall that Trump started, continuing the tariff behavior as you noticed too and certainly they will continue to want chips factories at home in the US. That much is already clear when you look at what the democrats say and do. I would struggle to find anything other than deportation or tax schemes that the next president will change. And even there.. it's not like the democrats changed the so called Trump tax cuts "for the rich" when they were in power. One main area that comes to mind that democrats will attempt to change are social issues like policies around sports for trans people or bathrooms or POC/LGBT specific funding. As much as they (quite hilariously) keep telling everyone else to stop caring about this supposedly fringe issue, that's really the first thing they will probably try to reimplement. I still remember how Biden, in his ~1st week in office, immediately implemented farmer funding specifically for POCs. It's so absurd but this seems to be what they care about most, essentially on its face racial policies.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#456

Post by ksec » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:32 AM UTC

SkyMarshal wrote: post #212

ksec wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? I dont know if I count, but at least I wrote about TSMC before most if anyone knew much about TSMC. Which is when Apple brought them to spotlight. It depends on how you define or count as being able to compete with TSMC? If Intel technically leapfrog TSMC and their 18nm is better than TSMC 20nm this year but; It is 30 - 40% more expensive. It h…

> If Intel technically leapfrog TSMC and their 18nm is better than TSMC 20nm this year but; Think you mean 1.8nm, aka 18A. We're way past 18nm and 20nm.

Yeah. That is what happen when I post it just before I felt asleep. Too late now can't edit it.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#457

Post by joe_the_user » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:33 AM UTC

lenerdenator wrote: post #330

benreesman wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel is a great example of the fact that between stupidity and low-integrity behavior as a default, the people in charge fuck up in ways that the man on the street would get right. Defense is starting to get a blank check with fairly bipartisan support for the first time in at least 30-40 years and it's centered on semiconductor supply chains . There has never been a better time to secure the fucking funding, have A…

> It's a failure of the will to do the right thing for both the shareholders and the country. They've been doing the exact right thing for the shareholders: squeezing the living shit out of an asset (x86/64) for decades while cutting anything interesting or competitive to the bone to give shareholders more money. Money spent on something that could really have been competitive is money not sent to the retirement fund…

They've been doing the exact right thing for the shareholders: squeezing the living shit out of an asset (x86/64) for decades while cutting anything interesting or competitive to the bone to give shareholders more money.

I would quibble with the exact right thing phrases but otherwise agree. Intel indeed followed a formula which is intended to and often does produce massive return for some time frame. The formula is indeed "gutting the company" - squeeze every part of an enterprise and return the results as profits. Whether destroying the companies long term prospects is worth these short term profits is a complex calculation.

A managers' duty is to promote long term value and stability, actually, but return enough short term profits and you trump that long investment income.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#458

Post by hypercube33 » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:36 AM UTC

leptons wrote: post #217

etempleton wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone thought AMD was done. Intel is going through a difficult transition, but if they can make 18a /14a work and keep improving their GPU line we could be having the same conversation about AMD in 10 years.

I used to be a die-hard Intel customer, and recommended to everyone that asked me what to but, to buy Intel. That has changed. Now it's price/performance that matters more than brand. Intel also had a few missteps that made the brand lose a bit of its luster. My most recent computer is AMD Ryzen based, but we just bought an Intel-based Dell for my partner because the price/performance was better than comparable AMD m…

If you're comparing laptop to desktop keep in mind a lot of those top out at 5 to 45w (gaming) and desktop chips are 45-65w to 300w (threadripper) and have a lot more cooling behind them.

it's almost apples to oranges in most cases.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#459

Post by iammrpayments » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:40 AM UTC

kulahan wrote: post #356

fishsticks89 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

Ah yes, Taiwán - that famously stable nation with no existential threats to its very existence. I don’t think this is an “if” situation, but rather a “when”. There is no question in my mind - it’s simply too attractive to China. It may not come through all out war, but they will eventually claim what they feel is theirs. They operate on much more manageable time scales.

What is so attractive to attempt the greatest amphibious assault in human history just to get an island with a bunch of people who will hate you and have nowhere to run away.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#460

Post by reliabilityguy » Fri, Jul 25, 2025, 2:46 AM UTC

bgnn wrote: post #338

reliabilityguy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The manufacturing cost is emphatically not only 1% of the total development cost. I have no idea what is the manufacturing cost of a 800 mm^2 die is, but I am sure it is lower than the development cost. > Particularly for GPUs, the high bandwidth memory and manufacturing costs are a significant portion of the product price. HBM is not manufactured by the GPU vendor, it is an off-the-shelf component that AMD buys li…

800mm^2 die would roughly cost 300-350 usd axcoeding to [1]. That's the Taiwan price and dor N4. This doesn't include the memory or the package. The silicon cost for N3 is close to 2x. [1] https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/spitballing-...

Well, seems that increase of 20% for US-based manufacturing on a base cost of $350 is $70. MSRP of 5090 is $1,999. So, on shoring will result in 3.5% increase in MSRP, which is nothing.