America’s incarceration rate is in decline • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#451

Post by senderista » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:16 PM UTC

energywut wrote: post #129

WalterBright wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Seattle, crime is "way down" because many businesses have stopped reporting it, because the police don't respond to less serious crimes anymore. A shopkeeper friend of mine closed his business in Seattle after multiple lootings of his place and the police never showing up. He relocated to a bedroom community. Crime statistics are not necessarily accurate, and politicians have an interest in minimizing tho…

You have any data to support that? I've lived in Seattle for 40 years, and crime here is way less of a concern now than it ever has been. Especially violent crime. My experience also seems to match statistics. So, it would seem that your friend's experience might be the outlier -- I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying their experience doesn't match the data and there's at least one anecdote (mine) that runs count…

It is a fact that CVS didn’t lock up the toothpaste until a few years ago. There must be a reason.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#452

Post by WarOnPrivacy » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:21 PM UTC

graemep wrote: post #287

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55 I had my kids 25-35; all 5 are adults. We live together as is befitting a 4 income economy. > and if the kids goes to college Do you mean go away to college? Yeah. No. > may have some dependency on you when your peers are retiring. Me and peers are all working grey. End of career happens with first major illness intersects with the lack of health insur…

SO what? That is well below retirement age and life expectancy. MY younger one turns 18 when I will be 58, and I am a single parent. Baring accidents or the severely unexpected (which can happen at any age - plenty of people die in the 30s or 40s) its not a problem.

> That is well below retirement age and life expectancy.

What is below RA/LE? My comment addressed common financial realities. It applied to every adult age, up to and including death.

> MY younger one turns 18 when I will be 58

okay.

> and I am a single parent.

You may be interested to know that parenting can be get much harder than that. ex: I would have loved my difficulty level to be dialed down to Single Parent.

> Baring accidents or the severely unexpected

I agree that some folks do experience year after year after year of luck.

> (which can happen at any age - plenty of people die in the 30s or 40s)

I agree that not having life-changing advantage & luck is pretty dang common.

> its not a problem.

What's not a problem? Taken together, your comment seems to be lacking a subject.

I did the best I could. If you could share which of my points you were responding to, that might help.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#453

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:26 PM UTC

999900000999 wrote: post #150

pamelafox wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had my children at 36 and 38, and I'm the mother, and energy-wise, I've had no issues. Yes, they considered me to be of "advanced maternal age" in the OB department and gave me special treatment due to it, but my doctors told me that the "advanced maternal age" threshold (35) was based off outdated research anyway. In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their k…

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#454

Post by techdmn » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:27 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #367

bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

Lifestyle is key here. An older friend conveyed to me pretty much the exact same thing you are, that he cannot imagine having kids at 40 because you will not be able to keep up with them energy wise. You get old and your body really starts to give in. Alright Geoff, thanks, but you are 54 and do zero exercise, have a diet of eating out at fast food and fast casual restaurants, a body type that would be described as "…

Aging sucks! Obviously you can do everything wrong, and mess your body up pretty good. You can also do everything right, and just have bad luck. Lingering injury, hereditary health conditions, things add up. By the time you are in your 60s, it takes a combination of good habits and good luck to be in good shape. It's comforting to point to active older people and say "I'm going to grow up to be just like them". Just aware of survivorship bias.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#455

Post by rahimnathwani » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:28 PM UTC

energywut wrote: post #442

rahimnathwani wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your claim that prisons reduce the likelihood of the population at large is not obvious on its face Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant? Here is a study supporting the assertion that prisons increase (or do not reduce) the likelihood of someone reoffending in the future Tha…

> Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant? I'm saying that prison sentences are not a deterrent to crime, and, in fact, increase the amount of crime done. Research has consistently shown that the threat of being caught is considerably higher deterrent than prison time, and that…

  I'm saying that prison sentences are not a deterrent to crime, and, in fact, increase the amount of crime done. Research has consistently shown that the threat of being caught is considerably higher deterrent than prison time, and that harsh sentences don't influence behavior:

Would the threat of being caught be a deterrent if the sentence were 1 day?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#456

Post by pc86 » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:32 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #408

pc86 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is "inheritance" used in a different way here similar to how "award" is, or are you saying you often need to inherit money from your family in order to be able to buy a house in Australia?

> or are you saying you often need to inherit money from your family in order to be able to buy a house in Australia? Tell me a place in any Western society (outside of run-down rural areas/flyover states) where an average employee (i.e. no ultra-rich tech hipster bros) is able to afford a home before the age of 30 purely by his own savings and income. That is frankly no longer a reality for most people.

You seem pretty defensive over me asking whether a word was used in the way I expect it was.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#457

Post by jrflowers » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:34 PM UTC

leptons wrote: post #428

jrflowers wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share that data

There are numerous articles all over the internet both supporting my claim, as well as negating it, depending on the agenda of the source - there are many people that are morally opposed to porn that would want my claim to be false (and they would still want to ban porn even if that increases rape). Here's some articles that support: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunny-side-of... https://www.scienced…

The rate of homicides and other violent crime have also declined significantly over the same period, so unless you contend that pornography also caused that, the data shows that it does not increase the rate of rape.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/homicide-rate-1990-vs-202...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#458

Post by emptysongglass » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:35 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #55

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

> If you are 25 you should be seriously thinking in the next 2 years, and by 30 have them

I need to push back on this because no one is actually an adult at the age of 25 despite those people wishing it were so. You do not have your shit figured out and assuming a partner of similar age, neither do they. It's only starting in your 30s where you start to understand what it is to be a responsible adult to yourself and to the world.

So please, do not seriously consider having kids in your 20s, for all our sakes.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#459

Post by joshuahaglund » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:36 PM UTC

philipallstar wrote: post #321

Incarceration isn't the same thing as crime. If the most populous state by far (California, almost 40m people in 2025) passes a law[0] that stealing things under $950 is a misdemeanor rather than a felony, then crime can continue while incarceration rates drop. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_California_Proposition_47

Your own link points out that $950 is just taking into account inflation. When the law was created in 1982 the amount was $400, which was about $981 in 2014.

Inflation would eventually make stealing a candy bar a felony. Or we could updated the numbers periodically

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#460

Post by eikenberry » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:37 PM UTC

vharuck wrote: post #372

kieranmaine wrote: post #149

One more thing to throw into the mix. The treatment of ADHD might be helping: "ADHD medication still reduces risks, but benefits have weakened over time" https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/...

I once asked myself, "What did people with ADHD as severe as mine do before there was medication?" The obvious answer was: drugs. People like me used to do a lot of drugs.

I think taking available stimulants, like nicotine and caffeine, were also ways of coping as they generally help with ADHD focus (or the lack thereof). I know anecdotally that I really hit my academic stride in college when I took up both habits. I still notice a small difference after coffee (gave up smoking a long time back).