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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

cnn.com

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#451

Post by grumpymuppet »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

The problem with this sort of analysis is that it's incremental and balanced across a large institution usually.

I think the reality is less like a switch and more like there are just certain jobs that get easier and you just need fewer people overall.

And you DO see companies laying off people in large numbers fairly regularly.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#452

Post by sarchertech »

alephnerd wrote: post #232
mechagodzilla wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interns and new grads have always been a net-negative productivity-wise in my experience, it's just that eventually (after a small number of months/years) they turn into extremely productive more-senior employees. And interns and new grads can use AI too. This feels like asking "Why hire junior programmers now that we have compilers? We don't need people to write boring assembly anymore." If AI was genuinely a big pr…

It's a monetary issue at the end of the day. AI/ML and Offshoring/GCCs are both side effects of the fact that American new grad salaries in tech are now in the $110-140k range. At $70-80k the math for a new grad works out, but not at almost double that. Also, going remote first during COVID for extended periods proved that operations can work in a remote first manner, so at that point the argument was made that you c…

> by the late 2010s it was getting hard to find new grads who actually understood systems internals and OS/architecture concepts, so a lot of jobs adjacent to those ended up moving abroad to Israel, India, and Eastern Europe where universities still treat CS as engineering instead of an applied math disciple

That doesn’t fit my experience at all. The applied math vs engineering continuum is mostly dependent on whether a CS program at a given school came out of the engineering department or the math apartment. I haven’t noticed any shift on that spectrum coming from CS departments except that people are more likely to start out programming in higher level languages where they are more insulated from the hardware.

That’s the same across countries though. I certainly haven’t noticed that Indian or Eastern European CS grads have a better understanding of the OS or the underlying hardware.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#453

Post by ccorcos »

droopyEyelids wrote: post #444
ccorcos wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI tools seem to be most useful for little things. Fixing a little bug, making a little change. But those things aren’t always very visible or really move the needle. It may help you build a real product feature quicker, but AI is not necessarily doing the research and product design which is probably the bottleneck for seeing real impact.

If they're fixing all the little bugs that should give everyone much more time to think about product design and do the research.

Assuming a well functioning business, yes.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#454

Post by ivape »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

Companies are not accepting that their entire business will mostly go away. They are mostly frogs boiling in water, that's why they are kinda just incorporating these little chat bots and LLMs into their business, but the truth of the matter is it's all going away and it's impossible to believe. Take something like JIRA, it's entirely laughable because a simple LLM can handle entire project management with freaking voice with zero programming. They just don't believe that's the reality, we're talking about Kodak moment.

Worker productivity is secondary to business destruction, which is the primary event we're really waiting for.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#455

Post by jayd16 »

CMCDragonkai wrote: post #420
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

It's cause there are still bottlenecks. AI is definitely boosting productivity in specific areas, but the total system output is bottlenecked. I think we will see these bottlenecks get rerouted or refactored in the coming years.

We'll take cheaper over faster but is that the case? If it's not cheaper or faster what is the point?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#456

Post by ccorcos »

argomo wrote: post #447
ccorcos wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you really think it’s a great idea to have no backup plan What makes you think people haven’t made back up plans? Or are you saying government needs to do it for us?

Ah yes the old "let's make individuals responsible for solving societal problems" bit. Nevermind that the state is sometimes the only entity capable of addressing the situation at scale.

Yes, I believe individuals should take responsibility for themselves and their future prosperity. We all know what happens when you don’t…

History has shown us quite clearly what happens if governments, and not individuals, are responsible for finding employment.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#457

Post by sarchertech »

xp84 wrote: post #227
gerad wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't have the experience to tell bad AI responses from good ones.

True, but this becomes less of an issue as AI improves, right? Which is the 'happier' direction to see a problem moving, as if AI doesn't improve, it threatens the jobs less.

If AI improves to the point that an intern doesn’t need to check its work, you don’t need the intern.

You don’t need managers, or CEOs. You don’t even need VCs.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#458

Post by kraig911 »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

Effort in this equation isn't measured in man hours saved but dollars saved. We all know this is BS and isn't going to manifest this way. It's tantamount for giving framers a nailgun versus a hammer. We'll still be climbing the same rafters and doing the same work.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#459

Post by sarchertech »

snowwrestler wrote: post #408
CKMo wrote: post #185

There's definitely a big problem with entry-level jobs being replaced by AI. Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? Sure, the AI might require handholding and prompting too, but the AI is either cheaper or actually "smarter" than the young person. In many cases, it's both. I work with some people who I believe have the capacity…

Companies reducing young hires because of AI are doing it backward. Returns on AI will be accelerated by early-career staff because they are already eagerly using AI in daily life, and have the least attachment to how jobs are done now. You’re probably not going to transform your company by issuing Claude licenses to comfortable middle-aged career professionals who are emotionally attached to their personal definitio…

If the AI can write code to a level that doesn’t need an experienced person to check the output, you don’t need tech companies at all.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#460

Post by simonsarris »

grumpymuppet wrote: post #451
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

The problem with this sort of analysis is that it's incremental and balanced across a large institution usually. I think the reality is less like a switch and more like there are just certain jobs that get easier and you just need fewer people overall. And you DO see companies laying off people in large numbers fairly regularly.

> And you DO see companies laying off people in large numbers fairly regularly.

Sure but, so far, too regularly to be AI-gains-driven (at least in software). We have some data on software job postings and the job apocalypse, and corresponding layoffs, coincided with the end of ultra-low interest rates. If AI had a recent effect this year or last, its quite tiny in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr

so one can argue more is to come, but its hard to see how its had a real effect on jobs/layoffs thus far.

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