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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#451

Post by pdimitar »

darkhorse222 wrote: post #450
pdimitar wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just give me the thing, I'll build the house. What do you think all programming discussions about languages, typing systems, runtime, tooling etc. aim for? EXACTLY THAT. If it was as easy as "just give me thing" then programming would have been a solved and 100% automated problem long time ago. Your comment comes across as "if only we could fly, we would have no ground road traffic jams". I mean, obviously, yeah, b…

I'm not seeking your advice. When I look at a cathedral built out of sand and call it meaningless that is not elitist, that is humble. Engineers who think their tools make all the difference are the pretentious ones. Things are not that complicated.

Too much generalization. Not interesting and not a discussion. No idea why you even bothered to reply.

I stated an opinion. You can reject it silently. Having the last word is not such a badass move as many people think. :)

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#452

Post by arresin »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

Absolute hype generation

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#453

Post by arresin »

AlexSW wrote: post #378
bustling-noose wrote: post #337

Sam Altman should have sold OpenAI to Musk for 90$ billion or whatever he was willing to pay (assuming he was serious like he bought twitter). While I find LLMs interesting and feel many places could use those, I also think this is like hitting everything with a hammer and see where the nail was. People used OpenAI as a hammer until it was popular and now everyone would like to go their way. For 90$ billion he could…

There are reasons for not wanting to sell their brainchild to Musk (of all people) that don't involve money.

Why is that?

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#454

Post by hnfong »

arresin wrote: post #453
AlexSW wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are reasons for not wanting to sell their brainchild to Musk (of all people) that don't involve money.

Why is that?

Being perceived as the boss of the most powerful company when AGI arrives is probably worth more than whatever little stock he holds...

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#455

Post by hnfong »

satellite2 wrote: post #344
echelon wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no moat in models (OpenAI). There is a moat in infra (hyperscalers, Azure, CoreWeave). There is a moat in compute platform (Nvidia, Cuda). Maybe there's a moat with good execution and product, but it isn't showing yet. We haven't seen real break out successes. (I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost.)

There is a moat in the brand they're building. Look at Coca Cola, Google, both have plausible competitors, zero switching cost but they maintain their moat without effort. Being first is still a massive advantage. At this point they should only strive to avoid big mistake and they're set.

Coca Cola only has a moat because soft drinks and junk food are mostly a done product without much space for innovation left.

AI is still not there yet, and if any model becomes significantly better than ChatGPT people will flock over to use it despite the branding. It's only when nobody can make better models, then people will just stick to the known brands.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#456

Post by toasterlovin »

sumedh wrote: post #439
toasterlovin wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re standing in the aisle at the supermarket, looking at the soda. Everything is in stock. What do you grab? Most people make the same decision for their entire life: Coke. That is the moat that Pepsi has been trying to overcome for decades.

> That is the moat that Pepsi has been trying to overcome for decades. Pepsi makes more revenue compared to Coke. Shouldn't it be Coke who should be trying to do what Pepsi is doing?

According to this[0], Coke (the cola brand, not the company) has a ~19% soft drink market share in the US vs. Pepsi at ~8%. This[1] has Coke (the company, not the cola brand) at a 69% market share of the US soft drink market vs. Pepsi 15 27%. Pepsi is a larger company, though, because they own a bunch of snack food brands whereas Coke is beverages only.

0: https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/us-soda-rankings-cok... 1: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/060415/how-much-glo...

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#457

Post by Vegenoid »

spyrefused wrote: post #406

Lately I've been thinking about the unintended effects that AI tools (such as GPT-based assistants) might have on technological innovation. Let me explain: Suppose an AI assistant is heavily trained on a popular technology stack, such as React. Developers naturally rely on AI for quick solutions, best practices, and problem solving. While this certainly increases productivity, doesn't it implicitly discourage explora…

On the flip side, the effect of “we already know how to do it this way, have good practices and tooling and educational materials for it” is often underweighted when considering the merits of a novel system. The more established something is, the better a competitor needs to be to make the switch worth it. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

There is of course a balance to be struck - keeping an open mind about new ways of doing things is important. However, in tech communities, I think there is often not enough thought given to the value of stability, despite warts.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#458

Post by BobbyJo »

ipaddr wrote: post #429
BobbyJo wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly couldn't disagree more. Having built very similar systems in Golang, Python, and Java in different companies, and having used MongoDB and other NoSQLs as well as Postgres to similar ends, I have very strong preferences about which I'd rather use in the future. Even simple requirements can rule out languages for me. Like, if you need async or concurrency, Python is awful. If you need SQL in your code, Golan…

You are trying to choose between languages based on differentiation. This language is better for x so it should be used or it's a waste time or capability. But in reality it rarely matters. If you were only allowed to use Java as a backend and your competitors could use anything your company would succeed or fail based on marketing and sales. The backend doesn't matter as long as they both have the same features. I u…

Then why do companies try to move so fast if if doesn't matter? Seems like your opinion runs counter to the observed behavior of the entire software industry.

If speed of execution matters, then the language and tools you use for something also matters.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#459

Post by conjectures »

rescbr wrote: post #297
conjectures wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not from what I've seen. The compiler is slow af which plays badly with how fussy the thing is. It's easy to have no defects in functionality you never got around to writing because you ran out of time.

So it makes you think before typing and compiling the code? Doesn’t look like a con to me :)

Here's a great life hack for you. Set a 15s delay whenever you type in an editor. That way you'll think more before writing code.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#460

Post by slantaclaus »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #304
slantaclaus wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I won’t considering trusting an AI to run a company until it can beat me at Risk

This should be easy for an AI.

Please find me a version of Risk with an AI that isn’t retarded. I’ll wait.
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